Establish the Fun: NFL film breakdown with JP Acosta

Welcome to part two of the Super Bowl LIX breakdown from Establish the Fun. Read our film review of the Chiefs offense vs. Eagles defense. Now let’s dive into the other side of the ball.

Now, you’re probably expecting me to start off with something here about QB Jalen Hurts and the passing game.

This Super Bowl is going to be fun: an Eagles defense that wants you to take your time and eat your vegetables against a Kansas City offense that’s got so much fiber in them they could stop up the Hoover Dam if it broke.

The Chiefs don’t need to be explosive to win games; at this point they might not want to be explosive. But Kansas City’s Super Bowl LIX showdown with Philadelphia is their biggest test yet.

It feels like everything that’s happened in this season has led us to this moment in the AFC. It had to be this way, as if fate was pulling the two together on a collision course. Once again, the Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs with a shot to finally slay the giant. Most of the attention is going to be on both QBs and playcallers on both sides (whichever team can defend the pass out of their base personnel the best might win this game), but I’m going to focus on one player whose role has increased since the last time these two played: Chiefs’ rookie wideout Xavier Worthy.

Yes, the Xavier Worthy that the Chiefs traded up with the Bills to get. Worthy and Bills’ rookie wideout Keon Coleman will forever be linked because of the draft-day trade between the two franchises, but both serve a distinct purpose in their respective offenses. Worthy’s usage has been interesting to me. Since Week 13 there hasn’t been a game that he hasn’t gotten under 80% of snaps (minus the Week 18 Carson Wentz masterclass) and in that same stretch he’s second on the team in targets, and first in receptions and yards. Oh and he’s caught two touchdowns during that time. What’s really got me going about Worthy’s usage is that he’s not only used as “fast man go far” in this offense—he’s being used as a weapon laterally instead of vertically. His Average Depth of Target of 5.7 yards is the same as TE Noah Gray, but his 225 Yards after Contact in that time period leads the team. Compare that to weeks 1-12, where his ADOT was 12.7, but he only had 188 Yards after the Catch. What Worthy is doing is becoming the explosive option underneath for QB Patrick Mahomes, and it’s helped his game blossom as well.

Every time the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders have played this season, both starting QBs have been injured. In their first matchup, rookie QB Jayden Daniels was still nursing a rib injury and couldn’t really move or throw the way he used to, leading to an Eagles’ victory. The second time, QB Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the game with a concussion, and the Commanders came back to win the game.

Both signal callers should be healthy when teams face again in the 2025 NFC Championship Game, which makes this game really interesting. My biggest question for the Commanders is how they can force QB Jalen Hurts to be uncomfortable in the pocket, and if their chaotic defensive style can force Philly off their game.

Normally, I spend this section talking about a specific matchup. What one side of the ball needs to do to the other, or something that I’m watching. However, this kaiju battle between two of the best offenses in football actually reminds me of a quote from one of the world’s greatest scribes, Norman Osborn.

The titan-fight between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills is the pinnacle of bullyball in the NFL, a matchup between two teams that have morphed their offenses to become much more physical and ground-based en route to massive success in the NFL—oh yeah, and having Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen help too. These two offenses are very similar in their goals, but how they approach them is where the two paths differ.

If you’re the Los Angeles Rams, this game has to be about stopping the run. Why? Because the last time the Eagles and Rams played, this happened:

And this:

This game is all about how the Lions defend another scrambling QB in Jayden Daniels. To keep it quite simple, Jayden Daniels IS the engine that keeps the Commanders’ offense going. Whether it be his steadily growing golf clubs he has as a passer or the force he is as a runner, the Commanders’ offense lives and dies on his ability.

There are two aspects of this matchup that I’m specifically watching: The Daniels’ scrambles and the targets over the middle of the field. Against man coverage, Daniels has a 12.1% scramble rate and a 0.13 EPA per play. He’s such a dynamic force as a runner when he can punish man coverage, and the Commanders have built this offense to let Daniels turn it loose as a runner whenever he sees a lane. The Lions aren’t that bad against scrambles! 19th in the league in EPA per play on scrambles and 20th in Positive Play Rate. However, they also lead the remaining teams left in the playoffs in Cover 1 rate, and in Cover 1 you leave a bit of gaps for runners such as Daniels.

I’m actually quite intrigued by this matchup between the Chiefs and Texans, largely because I think the Texans’ defense is playing some of the best football in the NFL right now. What they did to the Chargers on Wild Card weekend might violate the Geneva Convention. They pressured Justin Herbert on more than half of his dropbacks, forced four interceptions and allowed a -0.58 EPA per play, the fourth-lowest in the playoffs since 2016 (per Next Gen Stats). This game felt like the full manifestation of what head coach Demeco Ryans has wanted in his defense since coming from San Francisco. While the Texans don’t send pressure very often (15th in blitz rate per Pro Football Reference), but when they do, they’re BRINGING IT. They’re seventh in Sack Rate and first in “Holy Shit” moments when they tee off on opponents, and they do it from fronts that try to isolate their opponent’s weakest link.

A lot of times, when the Texans are trying to tee off on their opponents, they line up in these overloaded fronts. This means that Houston will put three defensive linemen on one side of the line, and then one of their star EDGEs Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson Jr. on the other side by themselves. Then, they’ll walk up a linebacker, most of the time Azeez Al-Shaiir to the side where Anderson Jr. or Hunter’s lone side. It’ll look like this:

Did y’all see the most athletic thing anyone has done on an NFL field this year in Sunday night’s game between the Bucs and the Cowboys?

In a game that finished with a flurry of just the most incredible moments, this moment by Vea stands out. The Bucs are down two and it’s 3rd and 6 with two minutes left in the game. Because Tampa has one timeout, if Dallas gets this first down the game is essentially over. Tampa brings a simulated pressure, but Dallas beats it (a trend from Sunday night) with a quick throw to TE Jake Ferguson in the flat. Most times, this play ends in a first down and the game is over.

Los Angeles Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is, in a few words, a football robot. If you want to teach elite processing and timing at the position, you watch No. 10 for LA. He’s long been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, but he always felt like he played a bit more ... buttoned up. Herbert is often going to get through his entire progression, choosing to safely check it down rather than try and extend for more explosive plays.

That’s changed under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, though. Herbert has been unlocked in his style of play, and it’s helped him turn in an MVP-caliber season. Herbert’s scramble numbers are lower than they were last year, but they feel much more important this year, due to the dearth of talent around him. This season, Herbert as a runner has been the most effective and successful high-volume runner on the Chargers, posting a 38.7 Positive Play Rate this year and a 30.6% First Down Rate as a runner. The Chargers need his elevated level of play, and it was on display in a pivotal win over the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. Herbert was his usual very good self in the pocket, but it was the out of structure work that he did that’s keeping the Chargers’ offense afloat.

At long last, the final first round rookie QB from the 2024 NFL Draft has started in a regular season football game.

The Atlanta Falcons turned to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. on Sunday against the New York Giants, in the middle of a tight playoff race with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After QB Kirk Cousins left many uninspired with his play, the turn to Penix Jr. felt like it had to happen in order to save any hopes the Falcons had at the postseason.

Houston, we have a playoff team.

Somehow, some way, the Houston Texans are in the playoffs. Despite an uneven offensive performance all season, the Texans are headed back to the postseason after stymying the Miami Dolphins in a 20-12 victory. What’s funny about that performance by the Texans is that Houston’s offense finished with the same EPA per play as the Dolphins, and still won the game!

There were seven wide receivers drafted in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, headlined by the Arizona Cardinals selecting Marvin Harrison Jr. This receiver class was thought of as having a bunch of studs at the position, all fighting for the spot of top receiver from the draft class.

So far, it’s been the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Brian Thomas Jr. The fourth receiver taken in the first round, Thomas was looked at as needing a bit more refinement before he became a dependable pro wide out, but his development has taken a fast track to superstardom. He’s ninth in the NFL in receiving yards with 956, one of only two rookies in the top-10 (Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders). He’s got eight receiving touchdowns, which leads all rookie receivers and has grown into the top target for the Jaguars. The scariest part is that Thomas is continuously getting better, adding more clubs to his golf bag to become a well-rounded receiver. The Jaguars have also gotten him much more involved as the season has gone on, which should terrify teams. Despite a loss to the Jets, Thomas Jr. went off for 10 catches, 105 yards and two touchdowns, so lets see how he did it and where he’s winning.

Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Elandon Roberts. Roberts fills a specific role for his team, a role that I believe every LB room in the NFL needs: the certified crashout. The linebacker who is willing to run through a joker’s face in order to get to the ballcarrier. Roberts isn’t exactly the most impressive in space or against the pass, but he will absolutely light your ass up like a Christmas tree if you step into his gap.

He displayed that in full effect in the Steelers’ win against the Cleveland Browns. Roberts is a menace coming downhill, and Browns center Ethan Pocic found himself on the wrong side of that on Sunday. The Browns are running pin and pull, with Pocic being the second guy out the gates. The first guy, left guard Joel Bitonio blocks cornerback Joey Porter Jr and Pocic is going to come around and hit the first guy he sees wearing black.

The Seattle Seahawks’ ground game is ... to say it kindly, poor. Entering Week 14, the Seattle run game was 30th in EPA per play and 24th in Success Rate. Neither very impressive numbers, and it hampered the full effectiveness of their offense and forced everything on QB Geno Smith, who is still very good, but has felt the effects of that. Seattle needed to find something that worked on the ground, and luckily it came in their pivotal division game against the Arizona Cardinals in the form of every college coach’s favorite run scheme: GT Counter.

For those uninformed, GT Counter is just a counter play, but the Guard and Tackle (GT) are the ones pulling instead of a Guard and tight end (mostly named GH Counter). It’s a gap scheme play that has become a go to for a lot of spread teams, but the Seahawks found massive success with it against the Cardinals. Sure, it could be just a one-game quirk: while I love the potential of the Cardinals’ defense, they make most of their hay defeating zone blocks with blitzing and stemming and not gap scheme because they’re simply too small at this stage of their team-building.

It felt all too fitting that this exact Kirk Cousins game happenned in Minnesota. On a day where the Atlanta Falcons moved the ball fairly well (53.4% Success Rate would be third among all NFL teams from Week 14, even above the Bills and Rams, 496 total yards of offense), they still lose 42-21 to the Minnesota Vikings on the backs of a muffed kick by WR Ray-Ray McCloud and two Kirk Cousins interceptions.

With the loss, the Falcons lose the division lead to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. For a team with hopes of a deep playoff run, they’re now on the brink of elimination because of inconsistent offensive play.

If you were to ask me who is among the top-10 in Broken Tackle and Missed Tackle Rate for all NFL running backs with at least 60 carries, I would probably give you the basic answers. Kenneth Walker, James Conner, David Montgomery. The usual.

Bucky Irving is seventh on that list, which made me do a little bit of a double take. As a matter of fact, Irving is third in the NFL in Yards After Contact per attempt. A pretty surprising number considering Irving is listed at 5’10 and 195 pounds. Despite being a smaller back, Irving has brought a noticeable amount of juice to the Bucs’ offense, and the way they get him involved is super interesting as well.

Over the last two weeks, Seahawks’ DL Leonard Williams has played incredible football. He has 4.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, two pass deflections and a partridge in a pear tree, helping to keep Seattle’s playoff hopes alive. Mike MacDonald’s defense has played really well recently, and getting star play from Williams has been a major part of that. He singlehandedly flipped the Seahawks’ game against the Jets with an incredible pick six that shows off how truly incredible the biggest people on the field are.

Let’s set the scene: it’s 3rd and goal for the Jets from the 10 yard line. Seattle is lined up with six potential blitzers at the line of scrimmage, not even counting the corner to the left side because the receiver is in tight. This screams “WE ARE BLITZING” to QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has always wanted to throw hot to defeat blitzes, throwing slants and and screens to beat the blitz. This makes sense because Rodgers has seen everything and anything there is to see in football, so when a blitz is coming he knows exactly where to beat it.

When the Chargers opened their 2024 season, I figured their defense would be good but still have some shortcomings at corner. Cornerback was a spot that the previous regime had swung and missed on multiple times, so the cobbled together prospects of late round draft picks and value signings like Kristian Fulton probably wouldn’t move the needle that much.

Boy, was I incorrect. The Chargers are seventh in EPA per play, fourth in EPA per play against the pass, and well on their way to the playoffs in the first year of the Jim Harbaugh era. Cornerback Kristian Fulton has played well, and Elijah Molden has been a monster since coming over to LA, but rookie corner Tarheeb Still has caught my eye.

All of a sudden, this game feels so much more important. After their season potentially being on the brink, the Dolphins have rattled off three straight wins and are right back in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. They go up to Green Bay to face a Packers team that I came into the season really high on, and they’ve given me no reason to feel worse about them. The biggest reason is because they’ve found something in their run game and RB Josh Jacobs. Jacobs came over as a free agent from the Las Vegas Raiders, and he’s been everything that they’ve been looking for. He’s 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards, 3rd in total Yards after Contact and has run for seven touchdowns. But it’s when we get to games in November and December where I really think we feel Jacobs’ impact on the Packers.

Josh Jacobs is a great back to watch because he initiates so much contact. He doesn’t just want to hit— he invites you to try and hit him. Among all RBs with at least 100 carries this season, Jacobs is fourth in Yards After Contact per attempt and third in broken tackles forced. His broken tackle and missed tackle rate of 19.8% is eighth in the same metric. He’s the human snowplow, and his game against the San Francisco 49ers was the perfect example of that.

The first Thanksgiving game is a pretty fun one, with the rivalry between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions adding another chapter. This is a good one to start the day off with, especially as the food is still getting cooked. A nice way to start the day with some football and chatting with family. What I would be on the lookout for is the Bears’ offense against this Lions’ defense that’s playing at a really high level.

Ever since Bears’ offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired, it feels like rookie QB Caleb Williams has morphed into a completely different player. He’s playing quicker (average time to throw of 2.42 seconds in weeks 11 and 12, compared to his season average of 2.8 seconds), scrambling more (averaging five scrambles per SIS over the last two weeks, compared to two through weeks one and ten), and shown more of what we saw of him while he was at USC. It’s what we all were waiting for when he got to the NFL, and despite not leading to many wins yet, he looks much more comfortable in the flow of the game. Despite the loss to the Minnesota Vikings in overtime, I thought Williams had a really good game, with some high level stuff in there. Let’s hop into it and see what he did so well.

I know, I know. I just talked about the Miami Dolphins saving their season last week, but this week I’m going to talk about another Miami Dolphin who is taking on more responsibility this season: QB Tua Tagovailoa. One of my biggest criticism of the Dolphins’ signal caller was in his play outside of structure. He tends to fall apart when the read is a little cloudy or when he’s forced to hold onto the ball, and it limits the capabilities of the Dolphins’ offense.

However, since returning from injury, Tagovailoa has flipped the script. In his four games since coming back, he’s been really good outside of structure, keeping plays alive and helping to keep the offense moving. Since his return in week eight, Tagovailoa has been 13-for-15 when outside the pocket, 17-of-22 when pressured and has bailed the Dolphins out of some precarious positions.

After Indianapolis Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson was benched for Joe Flacco two weeks ago, many wondered what his future in the NFL would be. I gave some reasons why he was seemingly regressing in his last game before his benching, but above anything else I really just thought the kid was playing too amped up, too tight. That’s natural for a player who hasn’t even had a full season’s worth of starts under his belt. Add that on top of subbing himself out because he got tired and you got a shit stew cookin’.

Richardson took the starting job back, and on Sunday looked like the player we were all promised. A statline of 20-of-30, 272 yards, and three total touchdowns in a win is nothing to sneeze at (despite it being the Jets), but what stood out to me the most was his relaxation. He looked like he was playing with much more control and less jittery, and you could see the explosive plays that he could make in the Colts’ 28-27 win over the Jets. Let’s get into the film room and see how he did it.

Back in October, I had a six-week check in with the rookie QBs that played at the time. Among the QBs who qualified for a grade, Nix had the worst one of the bunch. Coming in at a D+, there were many concerns I had about his early play, some of which are outlined here:

Well, it’s a good thing we play 17 games, because since then Nix has played really well. The development track for young signal callers is never linear, and Nix’s growth has been cool to see with an offense that is finding their answers quickly.

The Miami Dolphins were 2-6 and on the brink of losing their season heading into their Monday Night tilt against the Los Angeles Rams. With their backs against the wall, the Dolphins turned in a 23-15 victory over the Rams that essentially saved their season.

While most associate the Dolphins with explosive, high volume offense, it was the defense that saved their season. In the beginning of the year, I was incredibly optimistic about this defense, and against the Rams they turned in their best performance of the season.