The Commanders are a real threat to upset the Lions in the NFL Divisional Playoff Round

This game is all about how the Lions defend another scrambling QB in Jayden Daniels. To keep it quite simple, Jayden Daniels IS the engine that keeps the Commanders’ offense going. Whether it be his steadily growing golf clubs he has as a passer or the force he is as a runner, the Commanders’ offense lives and dies on his ability.

There are two aspects of this matchup that I’m specifically watching: The Daniels’ scrambles and the targets over the middle of the field. Against man coverage, Daniels has a 12.1% scramble rate and a 0.13 EPA per play. He’s such a dynamic force as a runner when he can punish man coverage, and the Commanders have built this offense to let Daniels turn it loose as a runner whenever he sees a lane. The Lions aren’t that bad against scrambles! 19th in the league in EPA per play on scrambles and 20th in Positive Play Rate. However, they also lead the remaining teams left in the playoffs in Cover 1 rate, and in Cover 1 you leave a bit of gaps for runners such as Daniels.

Yet, I think I worry more about the Lions’ pass defense in Cover 1 against this team, especially the linebackers. The numbers haven’t been there for Daniels this season against Cover 1 (19th in total EPA), but against Tampa he showed more of an ability to poke holes in the middle of the field. He was firing passes against Cover 1 targeting over routes against Tampa Bay’s overmatched corners, hammering a lot of WR Terry McLaurin like this over route. Love how McLaurin works this route to the inside, kind of stair-stepping this route to create more separation.

For Detroit, there are three players that I’m circling: LBs Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell, and CB Amik Robertson. Anzalone came back in their emphatic week 18 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, and he provided another steady hand in the middle of that defense, especially in pass coverage. He drew the task of defending TE TJ Hockenson, and his physicality really frustrated the Vikings’ TE. I think that’s going to be the play against Zach Ertz, who Daniels really trusts in the passing game. He was a little grabby, yes, but that physicality made such a difference in that game with messing up the timing of the offense.

Campbell is highlighted for me because he might be the one to draw the Daniels’ spy for the game. He’s been REALLY good this season, but he’s definitely better coming forward as a blitzer or as a spy. With Anzalone back in the game, he’s a bit free to roam. Robertson is going to see a lot of McLaurin against the Commanders, and his disposition as a corner and experience defending Justin Jefferson might help him in this one. I’ll be curious how this Lions team defends Daniels and the Commanders, who present a lot of challenges for what Detroit wants to do.