The Capitals have had uplifting moments in their playoff series with the Penguins before. In their three springtime meetings in the last decade, Washington has won a trio of overtime games, plus a couple of other thrillers. It’s never been enough to get the Capitals over the edge, as Pittsburgh’s gone on to win all three times. That’s still possible in their current series, but something felt extra big about Alex Ovechkin’s winner in Game 3 on Tuesday.
This really should be the Capitals’ moment to beat the Penguins
The Penguins aren’t quite right, and the Capitals now have an edge they haven’t enjoyed in recent meetings.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
His goal was spine-tingling to Capitals fans and a hockey nightmare of the highest order for Penguins fans. Ovechkin’s been a villain in Western Pennsylvania since shortly after he entered the league opposite Sidney Crosby in 2005, and this tally with 67 seconds left on Tuesday was as big-time as they come. He celebrated with a cutting troll, skating to to the boards and pounding them as middle fingers cascaded down on him: 4-3, Capitals.
(Not that it mattered, but it was extra salt in Penguins fans’ wounds that he scored a baseball-style goal on a bat out of the air. That’s supposed to be Crosby’s thing.)
Washington hasn’t won anything yet, but this is new ground for the Capitals against the Penguins. They’ve been down 2-1 after three games each of the last two years, and they’ve gotten close to recovering both times but fallen short in either six or seven. It would be surprising if this series didn’t last at least six, but if it does, the tiny edge the Capitals have cobbled together will give them more comfort than they had in ‘16 or ‘17.
It’s not just the dramatic ending that should excite the Capitals. It’s the way they took over the game in the last period.
The Penguins were better through two periods. They had a moderate, but noticeable, possession edge, including a 38-26 advantage in shot attempts. Both teams had narrowly missed a few goals, but the Penguins went to their dressing room up, 3-2, after one of the smoothest goals of the playoffs — a Jake Guentzel dangle that left Dmitry Orlov’s jockstrap sitting on the ice and the puck on Crosby’s stick, before he beat Braden Holtby:
That was the end of the Penguins’ good news. The Capitals had a 20-12 advantage in attempts in the third period, and the Penguins only got three shots on goal.
The Penguins have serious problems and limited time to fix them.
The two goals Washington scored to flip a deficit into a win were both indicative of long-term Penguins’ issues that may or may not go away soon. The tying goal happened because two-time Cup-winning goalie Matt Murray sprang a leak. Matt Niskanen fired a benign slap-shot from 53 feet with no net-front screen, and Murray just missed it.
Murray, who turns 24 this month, has had a brilliant young career. He’s liable to turn around at any moment and pitch back-to-back shutouts to keep the Penguins afloat. But he’s not playing well now. He’s given up three, five, two, three, and four goals in his last five starts. His playoff save percentage is a pedestrian .905 and well worse over the last five games.
On Washington’s winner, Murray didn’t have a chance. The Penguins’ defensive corps, which has been suspect all year and last, gave a tailor-made scoring chance to Nicklas Backstrom and Ovechkin. Olli Maatta had the puck at the Capitals’ blue line and did the only thing he really couldn’t do: throw it toward the middle of the ice, where the Capitals took it and went off to the races. Kris Letang didn’t play a two-on-one well, and the Capitals made them both pay. Washington had been taking odd-man-rush target practice all period.
The Penguins aren’t getting much secondary scoring, either. Crosby and Guentzel have been on a different level, but their vaunted forward depth hasn’t shown through.
An added bonus for Washington is the Penguins’ spotty medical situation. Evgeni Malkin’s probably not 100 percent. Carl Hagelin is still out with a head injury, and Zach Aston-Reese is probably out for the season after Tom Wilson broke his jaw with a hit to the head on Tuesday.
The Capitals could still Capitals this thing up and lose. But they’re favorites now, and the Penguins are trending downward.
D.C. sports fans won’t feel secure until this series is over and their team has won four times, and even that won’t be enough for some of them. But teams that win a road Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in a series go on to win more than 70 percent of the time. Road teams that win Game 4 to go up 3-1 go on to win the series more than 90 percent of the time. For their part, the Capitals have won their last two games in Pittsburgh, going back to April.
The Penguins aren’t on the ropes. Not yet. But they could be soon.
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