Let’s talk it out: Who’s saying Arrivederci to Serie A this season?
With just four rounds to play and two of those happening in the space of the next five days, the Serie A relegation picture is finally expected to become clear. Pescara are ten points adrift and have their Serie B ticket all but punched. As to who’s joining them in the second tier next season, that’s still up in the air.
Ahead of the matches, four of SB Nation Soccer’s Italian pundits got their heads around all of the potential scenarios to reveal who they think will be crying into their Pizza come the end of the season. Alongside myself, I’m joined by fellow contributors Jack Sargeant, Iain Cannell and Managing Editor Kirsten Schlewitz.
Shaun Best: Who’s going down besides Pescara?
Kirsten Schlewitz: Siena are going down. They haven't managed to beat non-relegation sides since Feb 3, when they beat Inter Milan.
Jack Sargeant: I’d say Siena and Palermo. Siena have put up a brave fight, but I don’t think their squad is quite good enough, especially now Innocent Emeghara’s on a something of a goal drought.
Iain Cannell: I think Genoa and Siena will go down, mainly because I think they’ve both played well enough to survive but done it at the wrong time.
Kirsten Schlewitz: I don’t see Genoa being able to grab more than three more points this season. I could be wrong, of course.
Iain Cannell: Genoa pulled some results together in January and February then Siena did the same through February and March, but since their loss to Roma, Genoa have been in freefall and Siena have gone off the boil too, plus they have the toughest run-in of the three candidates.
Shaun Best: They do indeed. Siena play Catania (a) Fiorentina (h) Napoli (a) and AC Milan (h). Compare that with Genoa, who face a proverbial six-pointer at Torino in midweek, then entertain Inter Milan and travel to Bologna to finish off. The pessimist in me can't see Siena picking up any more points.
Kirsten Schlewitz: Genoa are going down because Palermo will keep winning, although not this weekend.
Shaun Best: Palermo seem to have peaked at the right time. Maurizio Zamparini has taken a vow of silence and stayed out of the headlines. Plus, Josip Ilicic has found his form. Is the great escape on?
Kirsten Schlewitz: Maybe all they needed was to have Zamp hush up. Actually, all they needed was Josip to step up. It’s on him to save the season.
Iain Cannell: Yes. Palermo have started getting results and are actually playing like the side we all know they can be just at the right time. They have Juventus this weekend then Fiorentina, but their other two matches against Udinese and Parma are definitely winnable and I think that'll be enough.
Jack Sargeant: I'd love it if they could, but I think their run-in is just too difficult, and they really don't have a great squad. Save for Ilicic, there's no-one there who they can rely on to change a game. Fabrizio Miccoli hasn't had a great season, and Abel Hernandez is yet to prove why he's so hyped (though admittedly he has missed most of the season). I think their team is better than Siena's, but decisively their run-in is incredibly difficult. Parma are the only team they would realistically be a decent bet to beat, with Juventus, Udinese and Fiorentina the other three sides. It's too difficult for them to survive, I think.
Shaun Best: No-one seems to mention Torino in all of this.
Kirsten Schlewitz: That’s because the bottom four have been so horribly bad this season.
Shaun Best: Yet everyone assumes they’re safe.
Kirsten Schlewitz: Toro have been crap as well, but they’ve managed to get a couple of draws and wins when they needed them. Considering their style of play, though, I wouldn’t mind at all if they went to B.
Jack Sargeant: The league table would suggest that they're not safe, though really I think they are. Perhaps a little heavily reliant on Alessio Cerci -- not least with Rolando Bianchi underperforming -- they are still a solid enough side to stay up. They're stronger than the three teams below them.
Iain Cannell: Aside from playing AC Milan this week, i'd say their run-in is reasonably straightforward. They have enough quality in the side to get them over the line. Alessio Cerci and Mario Santana have been brilliant this season for them and they have the ability on their day to pull teams apart.
Shaun Best: Torino's final two games are at Chievo Verona, then they host Catania. They will probably grind out a couple of draws necessary to see them over the line, but it won't be pretty viewing. On a final note, who actually deserves to go down?
Jack Sargeant: The three teams in the relegation zone at the end of the season.
Kirsten Schlewitz: Chievo Verona and Torino. They don’t really have anyone exciting and they just play for a point all the time. It’s torture to watch.
Iain Cannell: If we look at the season as a whole, you'd say Pescara, Genoa and Palermo, also taking into account Siena's points deduction, without which they'd probably be safe. Pescara's defensive woes have been there for all to see and Palermo and Genoa just haven't played well enough for the majority of the season. However, as Siena's deduction stands, and as Palermo seem to have hit the right formula at exactly the right time, I think Siena will pay for the previous regime's misdeeds.
Kirsten Schlewitz: Quite frankly, Siena deserve it. Two seasons of getting points knocked? Major points? Send them to Serie B.
