Atlético Madrid vs. Bayern Munich, 2016 Champions League: Live coverage and score updates

Guardiola’s German adventure, at least in Europe, ends with a defeat against a Spanish team for the third year running. First Real Madrid, then Barcelona and now Atlético Madrid. Bad things always do seem to come in threes.

Just like the previous two defeats, the tie was lost in the first leg. It’s easy to say in retrospect, but it seemed that Guardiola’s greatest strength -- his ingenuity -- was his biggest weakness each time. Against Real Madrid two years ago, he over-thought matchups and tinkered to the point of perfection, but then beyond it. He dared Real Madrid to beat his team without the ball, and they decimated a defensively suspicious Bayern team on the counter.

Throughout both matches, Oblak constantly worked to cut off passing lanes between Bayern attackers in the box, to make crosses more difficult and prevent shots from being taken without pressure and in ideal positions. He organized his defense, distributed the ball well and served as an excellent leader on the pitch for his team. That’s all incredibly valuable, and often underrated in a goalkeeper’s game.

But let’s not overlook those saves. Oh goodness, let’s not overlook those saves.

Unlike the first leg, Atléti haven’t looked well-organized or dangerous on the counter. This goal made it 1-1 on aggregate.

Meanwhile, Atléti coach Diego Simeone isn’t attempting to fix a winning formula. He’s made only one change to the team that earned victory last weekend, with defensive rock Diego Godín taking the place of Stefan Savić alongside José Giménez at the heart of their back line. Godín could well reasonably claim to be the best center back in world football at the moment, and his reintroduction after injury will come as a significant boost.

And if Guardiola fails to so much as make the Champions League final, what does that mean for his legacy at Bayern? They won Europe’s top competition the year before Guardiola arrived, but since then have failed to get out of the semifinals twice. They say that third time’s the charm, but if it isn’t, then Guardiola will have failed to live up to his promises at Bayern.

The pressure is on. Now it’s time to live up to expectations.

Atléti would surely have liked their slender advantage to have been a little more comfortable, but if there’s any team capable of beating Bayern from this position, it’s them. Superbly organised in defence and lethal on the counterattack, their plan is once again going to be an über-reactive one. If they can keep things tight early on, Bayern are going to get increasingly desperate, and that’s when Atléti can really twist the knife.

We can expect Bayern to seize control of proceedings from the first whistle. Guardiola’s side loves to have possession, and Diego Simeone’s Atléti will be only too happy to let them have it. If Bayern can make the most of their early pressure and find a breakthrough, they’ll certainly be in the driving seat. However, if Atléti can weather the storm, they may well be able to capitalize on their hosts’ increasing frustration.

In September, Bayern Munich legend and honorary president Franz Beckenbauer exclaimed that the German champions didn’t need Arturo Vidal. The midfielder was out of shape, didn’t move well and was surplus to requirements.

It was an agreeable assessment.

In practice, though, things didn’t go so smoothly. Bayern’s midfield got too stagnant, the back line was too exposed to runs from wide areas, and the attack got bogged down by Atlético’s staunch determination. When the Spaniards scored -- rather spectacularly at that -- it seemed like we would be seeing Guardiola making some changes to unlock his team’s potential sooner rather than later, especially when their initially fiery response got beaten down.

But Guardiola waited. And he waited. And he waited.

That proved to be the last real chance of the match, with Atléti withstanding the late barrage to record an excellent victory.

Atlético Madrid: Jan Oblak; Filipe Luis, Stefan Savić, José Giménez, Juanfran; Koke, Augusto Fernández, Gabi, Saúl (Thomas Partey 85’); Fernando Torres, Antoine Griezmann.

Has Saúl Ñíguez been spending his spare time watching Lionel Messi videos? The Atlético Madrid star has a growing reputation as an excellent two-way player, but he’s not done anything quite like this before.

Diego Simeone and company have long made a habit of doing whatever it takes to win, no matter how attractive it is or is not, and no matter what it takes. Their dogged determination against Bayern’s fluid, tireless grace should prove to be an immensely entertaining and dynamic matchup, and seeing how these two highly tactical sides counter one another will be fascinating. This is an absolute must-watch match, because you may get no greater opportunity to learn a few things about how the game is played and managed than you will in this tie.

To watch the match online, you’ll have plenty of options available. In the United States, you can use the subscription service Fox Soccer 2 Go, or Fox Sports Go on certain internet providers. In Germany, Sky Go Deutschland will be streaming the match, while beIN Sports S.P. will have it in Spain. In England, you’ll be using BT Sport Live Streaming, and in other countries you should take a look at the listings on LiveSoccerTV.

These sides have only met once before, way back in the final of the now-defunct European Champions Clubs’ Cup. The first game in Brussels ended 1-1, with Atléti legend Luis Aragonés’ opener cancelled out in the very last minute of extra time by Hans-Georg Schwarzenbeck. Unfortunately the replay two days later wasn’t quite so even: Uli Hoeness and Gerd Müller each scored braces as the Bavarians ran out 4-0 winners.

Out: Diego Godín (hamstring); Tiago (knee). In doubt: None.