The 4 remaining World Cup teams, ranked by how likely they are to win the thing

Twenty eight teams of the 2018 World Cup are gone. Four remain. They’re all wonderful sides in their own right, blessed with talent and cohesion and all four with plenty of narratives heading into the semifinal.

At this point, any team can win the Final. Seriously. They’re all excellent. But some are slightly more excellent than others.

Let’s power rank the final four teams, based on how likely they are to win the whole thing.

Croatia are a wonderful side, and if this were slightly different circumstances, I would probably have them a bit higher in this list. But Croatia just played a 120-minute match (plus penalties!) against Russia, have a goalkeeper who looks like he injured his hamstring, and lost their right back to injury at the end of the match. This team is gassed, and they’ve got three days to get ready to play England side. I like this side, but this is a tall order.

Belgium have been wonderful this tournament, just knocked off Brazil, and have a coach who I’ve now been beaten into thinking is a generational genius. The only reason I have them third is because of who they’re playing in the semifinal: France, who, spoiler alert, are the best team remaining and the best side of the entire tournament. That’s not to say Belgium can’t pull off the upset — they’ve got the talent, and when you’ve got Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard, and Romelu Lukaku on the field, they can create goals out of nothing.

England haven’t had a real test this tournament. They played a depleted Colombia side, lost to Belgium in a weird match, and took care of business against an ordinary Sweden side. That being said ... I’ve never seen an England side this loose, this eager, this composed, this fun. They defend well and take their chances on set pieces, a good formula to advance far in a knockout tournament. Plus they’re playing an absolutely knackered Croatia side. Whatever: It’s coming home.

They’re the most talented team in the tournament, and have been since the first day. We can quibble with manager Didier Deschamps’ lineups, and rue the fact that he hasn’t really allowed this offense to open up and go at teams. But this side has depth, talent at every position, look confident, and have a budding star in Kylian Mbappe ready to take on all comers. They’re the favorites for a reason.