WNBA Rookie of the Year voting: how winner, runner-up fared

Paige Bueckers has been named the WNBA’s Rookie of the Year, the league announced on Tuesday morning. Bueckers, a Dallas Wings guard who was the No. 1 overall pick, averaged 19.2 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.9 rebounds in her rookie campaign.

Bueckers received 70 of 72 media votes for the award, with Washington Mystics guard Sonia Citron earning the other two votes. Media voting is anonymous, so the league does not share the exact list of voters, nor where they landed.

Citron averaged 14.9 points, 4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in her first WNBA season.

I, SB Nation’s senior WNBA writer and one of 72 media voters, selected Bueckers for Rookie of the Year, as explained in an article posted last week:

After years in the public eye, Paige Bueckers entered the WNBA with sky-high expectations, as a consensus No. 1 pick fresh off a national title.

And, five months removed from draft night, it’s safe to say that Bueckers has exceeded all of those expectations, save for team success.

This season, Bueckers has averaged 19.1 points, 5.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game. Her scoring average is the 7th-highest in WNBA history among rookies, and the 5th-highest in the WNBA this season.

Her 56% true shooting (which accounts for two-point and three-point shots as well as free throws) is higher than veteran WNBA guards like Sabrina Ionescu, Skylar Diggins, and Courtney Williams, among dozens of others.

While she’s struggled from downtown (Bueckers is shooting 32.2% from three, a significant dip from her strong 42.3% three-point average in college), she’s been efficient from everywhere else, shooting 51.3% from two-point range and 89.7% from the line.

It’s incredibly unusual to come in as a highly-touted rookie guard, carry the offensive load, and be efficient while doing so; Kelsey Plum, who was the NCAA’s all-time leading scorer when she was drafted, averaged 8.5 points on 34.6% shooting as a rookie. Sabrina Ionescu missed most of her rookie season with an ankle sprain, but averaged 11.7 points on 37.9% shooting in her subsequent first full season.

Bueckers’ 19.1 points on 47.4% shooting blows those seasons out of the water.

Last month, Bueckers tied the WNBA record for most points in a single game by a rookie, exploding for 44 points on 17-21 shooting. Before Bueckers, no WNBA player has ever taken more than 20 shots in a game and missed four or fewer.

Citron had a case as well, largely hinging on the fact that she was more efficient and on a team that won more games. She shot 44.5% from three on the season — the highest among WNBA guards — and scored the most points ever by a Mystics player in a single season:

Still, when it came time to cast my ballot, Bueckers was my clear choice.

Part of the edge goes to Bueckers simply because of the load she’s had to carry; the UConn product has a 24.9% usage rate this season, meaning that about a quarter of all possessions when she’s on the floor end with her (either taking/making a shot or turning the ball over).

Part of the edge goes to Bueckers due to her playmaking; the Wings rookie is averaging the 10th-most assists per game this season. She has the 11th-highest assist percentage this season (29.4% of Wings players’ field goals are assisted by Bueckers while she’s on the floor). And, she has the 8th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the league (among those averaging at least two dimes per game).

Several advanced statistics (imperfectly) measure a player’s individual impact, and Bueckers leads in those categories.

Bueckers has the 9th-highest PER in the league (21.4), while Citron has a 16.5 PER, which is just above league average (15). (Player Efficiency Rating measures a player’s statistical contributions per minute into a single, pace-adjusted number, accounting for positive actions like points, assists, and rebounds, as well as negative actions like turnovers and missed shots).

Bueckers also leads Citron in another advanced analytics, PIE, which shows the percentage of game events a player achieved (based on a complex formula that is basically a revamped version of PER). Bueckers has a 14.2 PIE rating (16th-best in the league), while Citron has an 11.9 PIE (38th-best).

How insightful are these statistics? It’s an age-old question, but the eye test affirms Bueckers’ impact.

Had the Mystics had a stronger finish to the season — and perhaps even secured a spot in the playoffs — Citron’s case would be made more compelling. For much of the season, the gap between the Mystics’ and the Wings’ records was larger and helped Citron’s Rookie of the Year case alive.

But the gap between the two teams’ success is not substantial enough to overcome the fact that Bueckers has carried a heavier load on her team, and by most metrics, has been the more impactful, all-around player.