Last week, we did a side-by-side comparison of three MVP frontrunners in the WNBA — Napheesa Collier, Caitlin Clark, and Allisha Gray. But a conversation and race that is maybe even closer than MVP this season is Rookie of the Year, where three candidates have separated themselves in the 2025 class. No. 1 pick Paige Bueckers in Dallas, as well as No. 3 pick Sonia Citron and No. 4 pick Kiki Iriafen, both in Washington.
Which of these 3 WNBA Rookies is REALLY leading the Rookie of the Year race?
There is a lot of debate about whether Paige Bueckers of the Dallas Wings, Sonia Citron or her Mystics teammate, Kiki Iriafen, is the frontrunner for WNBA Rookie of the Year. So let’s dig into the numbers to find out who is leading in the most areas.
Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Chelsea Leite has been writing about professional basketball since 2021, and covers both the Toronto Raptors and Toronto Tempo as a credentialed reporter for SB Nation.
All three are the current favorites for the award on Fanduel, with Bueckers leading the pack with the top odds (-1200), followed by Iriafen (+950) and Citron (+2500).
Similar to how we compared the MVP candidates, Bueckers, Citron and Iriafen’s statistics have been input into the chart below, side-by-side, sourced from Her Hoop Stats. And at least according to those stats, this is going to be an extremely close race between the three.
Rookie of the Year Leaders
Statistic | Paige Bueckers | Sonia Citron | Kiki Iriafen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Record | 4-12 | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Games Played | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| Points per game | 17.7 | 14.2 | 13.3 |
| Assists per game | 5.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Rebounds per game | 4.7 | 4.9 | 8.8 |
| Total Points | 212 | 213 | 199 |
| Field Goal % | 45.70% | 47.10% | 49.70% |
| Field Goals Made | 6.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| Field Goals Attempted | 14.6 | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| Three Point % | 30.80% | 35.90% | 0% |
| Three Pointers Made | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Three Pointers Attempted | 3.3 | 4.3 | 0.1 |
| Free Throw % | 85.10% | 84.60% | 75.40% |
| True Shooting % | 54% | 60% | 54.00% |
| Turnovers | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Steals per game | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Blocks per game | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Usage rate | 22.60% | 18.80% | 23.20% |
| Assist:Turnover Ratio | 2.38 | 1.03 | 0.81 |
| Win Share | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Offensive Rating | 111.6 | 109.3 | 107.9 |
| Defensive Rating | 103.9 | 99.7 | 98 |
Before even getting into the stats themselves, it’s important to note that while Citron and Iriafen have both played 15 games each this season, Bueckers only has 12 games under her belt. Washington has a 7-8 record, and Dallas is at 4-12, but for an award that is usually has candidates from lottery teams, the team record isn’t as much of a factor as it would be for other awards. Now: To the numbers!
When it comes to points per game, Paige is currently averaging 17.7, with a total of 212 points in 12 games. Citron comes in second here with 14.2 points per game, just beating Bueckers for total points at 213. Slightly behind is Iriafen with 13.3 points per game and 199 points total. Bueckers takes the top spot in assists while Iriafen leads in rebounds, both not shocking given their positions at point guard and forward. Iriafen is shooting 49.7% from the field right now, the highest percentage among the three, yet Bueckers not only takes more field goals per game, but makes more per game than Iriafen and Citron. While Bueckers’s percentage is the lowest, she makes 6.7 field goals per game as opposed to Citron’s 4.9 and Iriafen’s 5.2.
The three-point comparison is only between Citron and Bueckers, given that Iriafen does not shoot the three-ball. Citron has the edge currently from distance, shooting 35.9% from three-point range compared to Bueckers’s 30.8%. Citron attempts 4.3 shots from distance per game, making 1.5, while Bueckers attempts 3.3 and makes 1.0 per game. Bueckers takes the lead in free-throw shooting, making 85.1% of her foul shots.
Citron is also leading the trio in True Shooting percentage, an advanced stat that considers the extra point value of three-point shots. Citron has a true shooting percentage of 60%, while Bueckers and Iriafen tie in that category at 54%.
Iriafen commits the fewest turnovers per game at 1.8, which makes sense given the fact that she doesn’t handle the basketball as much as Citron and Bueckers do as guards. Citron is committing 2.1 turnovers per game, while Bueckers is at 2.7.
Bueckers leads in both steals per game (1.8) and blocks per game (0.8), showing her versatility on the defensive end of the ball, yet Iriafen has the best defensive rating of the three, with the Mystics allowing just 98 points per 100 possessions in her minutes. Citron is right behind her at 99.7 points per 100 possessions, and Bueckers has a defensive rating of 103.9.
Bueckers then reverses the order in offensive rating, leading with Dallas scoring 111.6 points per 100 possessions while she is on the court, with Citron in the middle again with 109.3 and Iriafen with 107.9. Bueckers also leads in assist-to-turnover ratio by a wide margin at 2.38. Iriafen leads the pack for usage rate, at 23.8%, while Bueckers is just behind her at 22.6% and Citron sits at 18.8%.
In maybe the most telling category of all, Win Shares. Simply put, WS calculates the share of wins a player is contributing to their team, and it’s here that the margin between the rookies is smallest. Citron leads with 1.6, but Bueckers and Iriafen tie just below her at 1.5. These three are going to make it hard for voters in a few months, provided they play a similar number of games.
In the featured categories, Bueckers leads in 9 of them, while Citron leads in 6, and Iriafen leads in 5. They are all getting enough minutes (and will continue to play this much) to give voters a full set of data to base their vote upon. All three have a chance to get into the WNBA All-Star game as rookies, and all three seem to be a lock for the WNBA’s All-Rookie team at the end of the year.
While this award in particular is fun to debate about, the more important piece is knowing these three players are going to be excellent WNBA stars for years. They are future Team USA standouts, future MVPs, future No. 1 options. The future is so bright for the WNBA, and this draft class is such an example of that. Not only that, but in a landscape where there will be a lot of change to rosters next season, Dallas and Washington fans can rest assured knowing that their rookie stars are under contract long-term, and aren’t going anywhere.
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