2015 NFL picks against the spread, Week 2: 49ers, Jets poised for upsets

I missed on six of my picks last week, so, hey, 9-6 ... that’s almost 9-7. It probably would have been 9-7 if I included the Thursday night games among these picks. If I can hover around .500 or slightly above this Sunday, that’s head coaching material.

We have two dead-even picks this week. The first is one of a handful of big time games on tap for the second week of the season: the Patriots at the Bills. It’s quite the statement from oddsmakers about the Bills; the Rex Ryan hype is real. It looked very real last week when they were making Andrew Luck look like Andy Dalton in January. Few doubted Buffalo’s defense; the real surprise was the offense. The Bills had the third-best offensive performance last week, as measured by Football Outsiders’ DVOA. It’s only one week, but all that speed could give the Patriots fits this week.

There’s also something else to think about for the game in Buffalo this week, something for the bettor: The Patriots are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games in the AFC East. The Bills are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven division games at home and 6-1 against the spread in all of their last six games, period. I would pick the Bills in this one.

The other pick ‘em game is the Titans at the Browns, Johnny Manziel versus Marcus Mariota. I would say that I was surprised it was even with Manziel starting, but it should be pretty clear that Josh McCown isn’t any better even when he’s healthy enough to play. The Browns defense will give Mariota and Co. more trouble than the Buccaneers did last week, but I still say they’ll be too confused by Tennessee’s offense to stop them. Pick the Titans.

Lock of the week, 49ers at Steelers (-6.5): What? Listen, that’s the third biggest spread this week. I don’t trust big spreads, even if it is just a touchdown. I’m not especially swayed by San Francisco’s performance last week. Instead, I’m just not real high on the Steelers without Le’Veon Bell. They’re 0-5 in games without him. And that defense still looks easily confused.

Upset pick, Jets at Colts (-7): I don’t trust the Colts. Head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson are already at odds, regardless of what Jim Irsay says. And why shouldn’t they be? Grigson’s record as GM is nothing special. In fact, his tenure’s been kind of disastrous at times. Pagano still manages to win 11 games every year, even saddled with Grigson’s various mistakes. That kind of stuff catches up with a team on the field. I don’t wonder if we aren’t seeing a little of that already. More importantly, I don’t have much confidence in the Colts defense. The Jets are going to run the ball a lot, even if they aren’t gaining 4.1 yards per carry like the Bills did last week against Indy. That’ll be just enough to open things up for the passing game, even if Brandon Marshall is manned up against Vontae Davis. Maybe the Colts will win straight up, but it’s a stretch to see them winning by a touchdown.

Stay away: The Rams should be a lock against Washington, right? Probably. That makes the most sense as their defensive line could well have Colt McCoy in the game for Washington by the second quarter. However, Jeff Fisher’s teams have a knack for laying an egg after big wins.

Odds via OddsShark.