130-team S&P+ rankings, in which the No. 1 team probably doesn’t deserve a Playoff spot

We’ve reached the end of the regular season in a pretty familiar predicament — we’ve got three certain Playoff teams, and conventional wisdom suggests the final spot will go to one of two teams.

Computer rankings make things a little bit different, though. My S&P+ ratings have the three surefire Playoff teams ranked third (Georgia), eighth (Clemson), and ninth (Oklahoma). Meanwhile, the fourth spot will likely go to one of the top two teams: No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Alabama.

A reminder: S&P+ is intended to be predictive and forward looking.

Good predictive ratings are not résumé ratings, and they don’t give you bonus points for wins and losses. They simply compare expected output to actual output and adjust accordingly. That’s how Ohio State can remain No. 1 despite a pair of losses.

If you’re interested in a decent résumé ranking of sorts, I encourage you to visit this post on strength of schedule: I created a Resume S&P+ ranking, and it is updated through Week 14. It paints no clearer a picture but might make more sense from a transitive perspective.

Below, however, are the predictive ratings, the actual S&P+.

(You can find full unit rankings, plus a yearly archive, at Football Outsiders. Also, if the chart below isn’t loading friendly on your mobile device, that Football Outsiders link should work.)

Jason Kirk has already expressed the logic I share regarding whether the Committee should choose Ohio State and Alabama.

If the Buckeyes make it in:

* The first two-loss CFP team (or second, if Auburn’s in) has two top-10 wins, sure, but two-loss Auburn had that many before conference title weekend.

* Going 5-2 against bowl teams is easily the worst mark of any Playoff team ever. The previous worst: 2016 No. 4 Washington’s 6-1. The average for a CFP team through three years was 7-1.

* The Buckeyes have already lost by 15 points to another contender, the most decisive loss ever suffered by a CFP team, if not for ...

* ... their 31-point loss to 7-5 Iowa, comfortably the ugliest loss ever suffered by a CFP team.

In terms of demonstrated and sustained upside, Ohio State and Alabama have been the two best teams in the country this year. But both teams have suffered some glitches that, in a normal year with a normal number of elite teams, would have them ranked somewhere in the No. 4-8 range. But this season hasn’t featured those teams.

(That said, Georgia looked spectacular on Saturday, and both Clemson and Oklahoma have very much looked the part in recent weeks.)

When it comes to CFP selection, however, your record and résumé obviously also matter. Alabama has aced the Résumé S&P+ test — which is designed to look not only at who you’ve played/beaten/lost to but also at how you’ve actually played — and, perhaps as importantly, didn’t put together a performance as wildly awful as Ohio State’s against Iowa. Hell, Alabama’s lone loss might not have been as bad as Ohio State’s second-worst loss. That should matter, and to me, it’s why Alabama should get the fourth spot. I don’t feel passionately about this, but I’d pick Alabama.

And by the way, for those asserting that USC should be involved in this conversation ... let’s just say that S&P+ disagrees. Vehemently.

Obviously there wasn’t going to be a lot of movement in a week that featured just 16 games, but FSU’s lovely post-Jimbo performance against ULM nearly got the Noles back into the top 50.

How does Troy beat a good Arkansas State team and fall 11 spots? First, here’s a reminder that everybody in the No. 20-50 range is separated by only a few points, so it’s really easy to move up and down a good amount. Second, the Trojans’ win over ASU was one of the least likely of the year. Postgame win probability: 1 percent.

ASU outgained Troy by an incredible 313 yards and created 11 scoring opportunities (first downs inside the opponent’s 40) to Troy’s six. Based on that alone, you’ll win almost every time. But ASU blew chances in a number of creative ways, and the Trojans didn’t.

None of this is to strike some sort of “Troy didn’t deserve the Sun Belt title!” tone. Wins are wins. But again: S&P+ is a predictive rating. Nothing about Troy’s win suggested that the Trojans would be predicted to beat ASU again.

The SEC maintained its lead in the average S&P+ ratings list. But with the top and bottom power conferences separated by 1.9 points, bowl season could take these averages in a lot of different directions.