These teams will make the Playoff: 12-1 Clemson, 12-1 Georgia, and 12-1 Oklahoma.
Alabama wouldn’t be a great Playoff pick, but still more deserving than Ohio State. Look at the records.
The Buckeyes might be great, but they have two horrible losses and a short list of wins over decent teams.
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
So now that a spot’s opened up, via Wisconsin losing to Ohio State, what happens?
Based on the committee’s penultimate rankings, the only reasonable conclusions are that idle Alabama and Ohio State would be the next teams up. I don’t believe any team ranked behind No. 8 Ohio State has a shot.
Do Bama and OSU really deserve that status, though?
The only things Bama, which didn’t win its division, and Ohio State, which got pantsed twice, have in their favor: They’ve impressed Vegas and the computers, which are excellent predictors going forward. The committee’s not supposed to go by computers, though.
This is a parity-heavy year in which every team has a flaw — Clemson lost to Syracuse, Oklahoma failed to really put away several weaker teams, Georgia got blown out once (but avenged it), and UCF failed to go back in time and schedule teams that would happen to be good — but that’s no reason to default to two teams that’ve combined for five Playoff bids in three years.
So let’s compare a few resumes, based on Week 14 developments.
I’m not saying all of these teams have great Playoff arguments. I’m saying these teams have great arguments to rank ahead of Ohio State ... and maybe Bama too.
We’ll use really simple metrics, such as the committee’s beloved records vs. .500-plus teams and records vs. top-25 teams (a projected version of the final top 25, based on each scenario).
Note: The following list does not include the teams mentioned up top. Those teams are already in.
11-1 Alabama, who’s idle
The same resume as potentially undefeated conference champ Wisconsin, minus “potentially undefeated” and “conference champ.”
- A mere 2-1 against ranked teams, now that Boise State has beaten Fresno State.
- Seven .500-plus wins, but zero top-10 wins.
- Like Ohio State, just lots of blowouts of mediocre teams ... albeit without losing at home, losing to an unranked team, losing by more than two scores, or doing all three, as Ohio State did.
- Also, take the committee’s explanation for Auburn being No. 2 and apply it to Bama:
11-2 Ohio State
Three wins against top-25 teams and a conference title is pretty good. But the Buckeyes got blown out twice and beat fewer bowl teams than any other team on this list, including UCF.
Two-loss 2016 Penn State and 2015 Stanford also had three wins against top-25 teams and conference titles, and each lost one of its games by a single score, rather than getting blown out twice. Neither made the Playoff (PSU at the expense of a one-loss Ohio State with three top-10 wins), and that was fine.
If the Buckeyes make it in:
- The first two-loss CFP team (or second, if Auburn’s in) has two top-10 wins, sure, but two-loss Auburn had that many before conference title weekend.
- Going 5-2 against bowl teams is easily the worst mark of any Playoff team ever. The previous worst: 2016 No. 4 Washington’s 6-1. The average for a CFP team through three years was 7-1.
- The Buckeyes have already lost by 15 points to another contender, the most decisive loss ever suffered by a CFP team, if not for ...
- ... their 31-point loss to 7-5 Iowa, comfortably the ugliest loss ever suffered by a CFP team.
12-0 UCF
Mid-majors are not eligible for the Playoff, until the committee releases evidence to the contrary, but:
- The Knights have the same number of games against bowl teams as Ohio State — without losing to two of them. (FWIW, UCF whooped a somewhat healthy-ish Maryland on the road, while Ohio State did the same to a less-healthy Maryland at home.)
- Two wins over Memphis might give UCF as many top-25 wins as Bama has, if Fresno loses and Memphis only falls from No. 20 to No. 25 or so.
- Surely the only team to beat Memphis could come within 31 points of 7-5 Iowa.
- Oh, and surely winning the entire AAC counts for more than not winning half of the SEC?
11-2 USC
The Trojans have:
- Beaten eight bowl teams, three more than Ohio State.
- Only lost to ranked teams on the road, rather than to unranked teams or at home.
- Only been blown out once, not twice.
- A conference title, unlike Bama.
- And faced at least as many ranked teams as Bama did.
No wins against top-10 teams or ranked wins besides Stanford and Stanford [Sanford and Son theme plays], though both of those Stanford wins might still outrank any of Bama’s.
12-1 Wisconsin!
If Bama’s still eligible, then why not?
- Compared to Bama, the Badgers won a division, have more wins, were roughly as dominant all year, have just one fewer win over bowl teams, and have the same record against top-10 teams.
- Against Ohio State, head-to-head and the conference title are factors, but the committee also considers performance against common opponents. The scoring difference in their games against Iowa: 55 points in Wisconsin’s favor (which happens to be the total OSU surrendered to the Hawkeyes).
- UW’s also beaten more bowl teams than OSU did and not lost a second game. Ohio State will fairly rank ahead of Wisconsin, but that there’s even an argument shows you how tough the committee’s call is here.
See More:
