3 potential wide receiver busts in fantasy football

Wide receiver is a fairly deep position in fantasy football. If you miss out on the top 10 you can still cobble together a solid squad out of secondary and tertiary options. The bust really hurts when you are drafting someone in the top 20 and they significantly underperform expectations. There is no tried and true method of identifying who will bust, but there are symptoms that will lead you to a potentially troubling situation. Below are four wide receivers currently being drafted in the top 20 that are in real danger to not return that type of value.

It’s been a rough two years for Robinson. Following his terrific 2015 season (80 receptions, 14 touchdowns) he turned in a respectable, if underwhelming, effort in 2016 (74 receptions, 6 touchdowns). He caught all his targets in 2017, but that one catch resulted in a season ending knee injury.

The wide receiver scene in Jacksonville got crowded quick and Robinson is now a Chicago Bear. This is where I get worried about his 2018 outlook. There are positives to point out: new head coach, Matt Nagy, helped to breathe life into the Kansas City offense last season after taking over play calling duties from Andy Reid. His hype train has been chugging along all offseason and many think he is the one that will maximize Mitch Trubisky’s skills.

There are also a lot of hurdles standing between Robinson and top-20 stats (he is currently being drafted as WR20). First, there is the injury. It is difficult to predict how quickly an athlete will recover from an ACL injury and Robinson will have to test his healed knee while adjusting to a new team. In Trubisky’s rookie season, he showed an inclination to target receivers in the middle of the field. Robinson’s game is more about grabbing deeper passes in jump ball situations and newcomers Trey Burton and Anthony Miller figure to work the intermediate parts of the field far more often.

With the perfect conditions, Allen Robinson is a top-10 talent, but this year there are so many variables and questions surrounding the former Jaguar that I doubt he lands on any of my rosters.

The quick math on Hill looks good. He finished in the top five at his position in a 2017 season filled with big plays. Early drafters must imagine similar production ahead for Hill as he is currently going in the early to middle of the third round just outside of WR1 range. Hill is a special player and he is only appearing on this list given his situation. Alex Smith will now take his bizarre career to Washington and Patrick Mahomes is the new kid in Kansas City. Mahomes’ skill set is a great match for Hill, but he is still a second-year quarterback on a team that just lost their offensive coordinator to Chicago. Growing pains should be expected.

All of Hill’s receiving touchdowns have come from outside the 30-yard line. This is interesting when you consider he won’t be the only burner in town this year with the addition of Sammy Watkins. The former Bill and Ram didn’t show well last season after arriving to Los Angeles late, but he can also hurt teams deep down the field and served as an excellent decoy with the Rams.

To Hill’s credit, KC could find themselves airing out the ball more this year if the defense doesn’t improve and Andy Reid could figure out more ways to utilize Hill’s unique talents, but it is more likely that he continues to be a boom or bust player and his efficiency is very likely to decrease if he has fewer targets or if the QB play suffers.

NOTE: This was written before the news of Josh Gordon leaving the team temporarily.

I get it. Josh Gordon has shown he can be an incredible player in this league and he looks like he is constantly wearing a Batman suit (the be-nippled version from the Batman & Robin movie). He is one of the most hyped players in this year’s fantasy drafts, he just got a QB upgrade and he figures to be available for all 16 games this season.

If all of the above is true then why could Gordon bust in fantasy? The short answer is volume share. The Cleveland Browns had a busy offseason that saw them land not only Tyrod Taylor, but also Jarvis Landry. The Browns also beefed up their running attack by bringing in Carlos Hyde and drafting Nick Chubb. Tight end David Njoku is entering his second year and figures to play a larger role in the offense. There’s also Corey Coleman, who has flashed some serious talent when healthy. Josh Gordon’s game isn’t built around volume, but the Browns now have more ways to hurt you and it is difficult to see how Gordon gets enough deep balls to warrant his WR1 price tag. Reaching numbers similar to his 2013 campaign (87 receptions for 1,646 yards receiving and nine touchdowns) is going to be a true ordeal if this offense stays healthy and if he fails to add a few new tricks to his repertoire.

Only two receivers who were targeted at least 130 times had fewer touchdowns than Mike Evans last season (Adam Thielen and Julio Jones). If you are drafting the Buccaneers’ top wide out as a WR1 (judging by his current average draft position … that would be many of you) you are betting on a bounce back season, perhaps something closer to his 2016 campaign (96 receptions, 1,321 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns).

Could he do it? Sure, Evans is a great receiver who can high-point a ball like few others and up to this point he has been an absolute target monster. However, there are reasons to pump your brakes on an Evans’ rebound. I’m primarily worried about his volume. He has never received under 120 targets in a season, but the Bucs have a much better receiving corps in 2018 than in his four previous seasons. DeSean Jackson will still demand attention. There is a lot of talk about Chris Godwin emerging as legitimate weapon and Tampa Bay has one of the best tight end duos in the league. Mix in what should be an improved backfield and you start to see a future where Mike will have to do more with less. To add a bit more salt he has one of the worst catch-rates of any receiver over the last four seasons. Evans will be a fantasy factor, but I just see him as more of a mid-level WR2 rather than a bonafide WR1.