4 potential tight end busts in fantasy football

Here’s the thing about the tight end position in fantasy football, it’s garbage. There are maybe three dependable guys and then a sea of interchangeable players. Some have better seasons than others, but it’s a highly streamable position. Trying to identify a bust is extremely difficult because there are rarely players that warrant a large investment.

This bust article is mostly directed at players who are currently receiving a lot of buzz, but could use some cooling down. The current top three (Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Zack Ertz) are all safe early-round options. The guys below are often in the top-10 conversation, but there are reasons to believe they could fail to live up to the hype.

I know, I know, “10 touchdowns with Russell Wilson, imagine what he can do with Aaron Rodgers!” The story just isn’t that simple this season for one of the best tight ends to ever do it.

Graham isn’t the same player we remember from New Orleans. It seems the injuries have taken their toll on his ability to separate and the speed that allowed him to destroy defenses down the seam is gone. People are going to see his 10 touchdowns from last year and get excited, but that is pretty much all he did in Seattle; come in on passing downs and red zone opportunities as a big body. Green Bay’s offense is loaded with weapons so he probably won’t see another 36 percent target share in 2018. To maintain his top-five status, Graham is going to have to find a way to get it done between the 20s. There were 16 other tight ends that finished with more yards than Jimmy in 2017; so it doesn’t look like he’s going to make up for a drop off in touchdowns with receptions or yardage. A tight end that only gets 500 yards with five to six touchdowns isn’t one you want to chase in drafts.

If acquiring a tight end with high TD upside is your strategy. Cheaper options include Kyle Rudolph who is currently going three rounds later or the ancient Antonio Gates (should he sign with the Chargers).

It hurts my soul to write a negative word about Jack “MF” Doyle. It’s hard not to like how he plays the game, especially when he is running after the catch. His mini breakout last season was a joy to watch, but like many players that fall on a bust list, his situation is very murky.

First, there’s the obvious bugaboo, Andrew Luck. Will he be back? How well will he play? Does he last the season? To cloud the waters further, Indy added Eric Ebron, who appeared in my sleeper column last season — sorry about that. Ebron has his flaws, but he is a better athlete than Doyle and is at the very least a threat to Doyle’s opportunity share. That’s far too many red flags for a middle-of-the-pack tight end.

I try not to focus on injury potential too closely, but there are some cases where it has to be considered. This brings us to the curious case of one Jordan Reed. When healthy he is a game changer and focal point on the Washington offense. That just hasn’t been the case very often. He’s missed at least five games in three of his five seasons. When you look at his 2017 campaign, you can clearly see Vernon Davis out performing him when both were active.

Drafting Jordan Reed is a bet that he will deliver another 2015 season (87 receptions, 11 touchdowns). Working in his favor is that Washington didn’t do much to add weapons to their passing game this offseason. However, there is potential with their current crew of young wide receivers (Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson and Jamison Crowder). If Alex Smith shows chemistry with one of the other passing options (don’t forget his former 49ers teammate, Vernon Davis, is still alive and playing football) or if Washington focuses more on the run then Reed will see a drop in targets even if healthy. His price tag isn’t too expensive (seventh round), but you can find safer options further down the line.

Evan Engram had a few chips fall in his favor his rookie season. Odell Beckham missed most of the season due to injury. Then Brandon Marshall went down. There was absolutely no run game and that likely led to Engram being the second most targeted tight end in 2017.

Engram is an above-average talent, but he struggled with efficiency his rookie year. A 56-percent catch rate is his obvious red flag. Engram is going to lose targets with a healthy Beckham and one of the most hyped running backs debuting in the backfield. Sterling Shepard also flashed potential in 2017 and figures to take a step forward this season. I’m a believer in Engram’s talent, but many of his reasons for early success were based on situation. He has an uphill battle on his way to reaching the value of his fifth-round price tag.