NFL Panic Index 2019: Aaron Rodgers can’t be the Packers’ savior anymore

The Packers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. This Green Bay team, however, is built much differently than the ones that were a postseason staple through most of the 2010s.

The Pack of the past relied on Aaron Rodgers’ MVP play behind center to lift them to shootout victories and fourth-quarter rallies. The 2019 version of the team has had no problem scoring early — but Rodgers hasn’t been the late-game wizard he once was, and that could forebode trouble.

Green Bay ranks third in the league in first quarter scoring at 7.5 points per game, but drops to 27th in the fourth at 4.6. In six games against teams with .500 records or better, the Packers have scored just two fourth-quarter touchdowns. Both came against the Chiefs, which lost the time of possession battle with Matt Moore at quarterback.

What’s the reason for these late-game slumps? It may fall on Rodgers’ big arm. The 36-year-old has been a house on fire in the first quarter, but his game drops to “just pretty good” in the fourth.

Rodgers in the first quarter: 75.2% completion, 1,053 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs, 10 Y/A, 135.1 passer rating
Rodgers in the fourth quarter: 64.2% completion, 786 yards, 7 TDs, 2 INTs, 7.2 Y/A, 99.4 passer rating

This was on full display in Sunday’s 21-13 win over the Bears. Rodgers dropped back to pass six times in the fourth quarter. He completed zero of his passes, was sacked once, and scrambled once for six total yards. He failed to convert any of his team’s third downs. Granted, his Packers were playing with a different sense of urgency with a lead at home, but that’s still a reason for concern.

It’s all been a function of a larger decline as well. While Rodgers has been a perfectly decent quarterback since October, he’s only thrown eight touchdown passes in his last six games. He’s averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt in that span, which would be the worst mark in the NFL if spread throughout an entire season. If he can’t reverse that trend — and he’s confident he can — Green Bay is going to be mostly toothless in the playoffs.

Panic index: Rodgers typically reaches another gear in the postseason, as his 99.4 playoff passer rating (against nothing but quality opponents) suggests. Even if he can’t in 2019, he’ll have a rebuilt defense to pick him up. The Packers have backslid lately, but the Za’Darius Smith-Preston Smith combination has been able to come up with key pressures throughout the season. Those two pricy free agents will be called on again if Rodgers can’t find his fourth-quarter footing in January.

The Minnesota Vikings are just a win away from making the playoffs, and possibly two games away from the NFC North title, but they might be without one of their best offensive weapons to do so. During Minnesota’s 39-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, running back Dalvin Cook left the game after suffering a a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, Cook might be out for the rest of the regular season:

Cook brings an explosive threat to the Vikings that helps take some of the pressure off of quarterback Kirk Cousins and Minnesota’s passing game. About halfway through the season he was leading the NFL in rushing yards, but he’s been banged up lately and his play has declined.

His best performance on the ground this season came in Week 2, when Cook rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown in a 21-16 loss to Green Bay. The Vikings will host the Packers on Monday night for the rematch, in what will be a huge game against one of their biggest rivals. If Minnesota beats Green Bay, the Vikings will be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs and will still have a chance at the division crown.

The Vikings are currently a 4.5-point favorite over the Packers, but Cousins hasn’t had any success on Monday night. He’s 0-8 in Monday Night Football games as a starter, and not having his top running back — especially one who ran over Green Bay earlier this year — might not bode well for him in trying to change that record.

Panic index: After Cook left the game last week against the Chargers, backs Ameer Abdullah and Mike Boone split carries. Boone finished with 56 yards and two TDs on 13 carries, so if he can put up similar numbers against the Packers — who have a worse rushing defense than the Chargers — Minnesota might be just fine.

On the other hand there has been some indication that Cook might play ...

... whether or not he’s 100 percent if he does play remains to be seen.

With or without Cook, the Vikings don’t need to panic if they lose to the Packers. Minnesota could drop its last two games and would still have a nice 69 percent chance to make it in as a wild card team, per the New York Times.

In both of Mike Mularkey’s seasons as head coach, the Titans were 9-7. In Mike Vrabel’s first season in Tennessee, the Titans again ended with a 9-7 record. Now Tennessee is careening toward — you guessed it — another 9-7 season.

The Titans rank No. 15 in total offense and No. 19 in total defense. They’re essentially the perfect picture of mediocrity and can’t stop finishing with a good-not-great record to match.

Right now, the Titans are 8-6 and finish the year with games against the Saints and Texans. They’ll win one and lose one, of course. It’s destiny.

And just like the other three times, it won’t be enough for the division title — and the home playoff game that comes with it. The Titans haven’t won the AFC South since 2008 and another 9-7 season will lock down second place yet again. This year, it might be enough for a wild card spot, just like it was in 2017, but the door would still be left open for the Steelers to snag it instead.

Panic index: As long as the Titans beat the Texans in their season finale, FiveThirtyEight gives them a greater than 90 percent chance at making the playoffs. That’s even if they lose to the Saints in Week 16.

But if the Titans get booted on Wild Card Weekend or they don’t make the playoffs at all, it’s time to worry. Tennessee will have to ask itself how to get out of its slightly-better-than-Jeff-Fisher purgatory.

A month ago, everything was great in Oakland. Derek Carr was playing his best football, and the Raiders were in the playoff hunt.

That quickly changed. Carr has been inconsistent and the Raiders have lose four straight, most recently their final game in Oakland. It was a pitiful showing from both Carr and the team, which allowed 17 unanswered points in the second half to the Jaguars. That loss included the quarterback being booed off the field:

Carr’s biggest issue is that when he struggles, he can’t really dig himself out of the hole. His actual stats are fine. He ranks near the top of the league in completion percentage (70 percent), bad throw percentage (11.9 percent), and on-target percentage (81.8 percent).

But while Carr isn’t losing them games, he isn’t winning them, either. The Raiders are still ninth-worst in the league in offensive scoring and fell to 6-8 with their last loss.

More than that, there are now rumors surfacing that Carr and head coach Jon Gruden don’t see eye-to-eye. Michael Lombardi reported that there is a “significant disconnect” between the two.

That report made the nebulous point that Gruden probably doesn’t like that Carr “never displays the fire that would remind anyone of former quarterback Rich Gannon,” which sounds like nonsense. But anything is possible with Gruden. He’s not shy about making sweeping changes.

The Raiders are committed to Gruden above all else, and if Gruden thinks it’s time to move on, they’ll move on. And it’d certainly make a splash if the Raiders’ first season in Vegas came with a new (and perhaps more exciting) quarterback.

Panic index: The Raiders have no clear answer for the position beyond Carr, who still has three years left on his contract. They have two first-round picks in 2020, but both will be outside the top 10 and they have other holes to fill. However, if the Raiders could decide they’ll have a better chance at competing with someone else next year — whether that’s with a draft pick or a free agent option — then trading Derek Carr shouldn’t be too difficult.

The Falcons show life at the weirdest times. In the midst of a 1-7 start that seemed destined to get coach Dan Quinn fired by midseason, their sole win came in the final minutes of a game against the Eagles.

They halted a six-game losing streak in Week 10, when they shocked their biggest rivals, thumping the Saints by a double-digit margin in the Superdome. Last week, they pulled off another unexpected win with a last-second touchdown (two, kinda) on the road against the then-No. 1 seed 49ers.

The Eagles, Saints, and 49ers have paid a huge price losing to the Falcons. The Eagles would be atop the NFC East, instead of tied and facing a must-win game against the Cowboys in Week 16. The Saints would be in the No. 1 seed in the NFC, instead of the No. 3 spot (which means no first-round bye). The 49ers would still be in the No. 1 seed in the NFC, instead of the No. 5 spot (which means no home game in the playoffs).

Not only that, but Atlanta’s win in San Francisco potentially helps the hated Saints, who now have an easier path to the top seed.

But the Falcons may have hurt themselves most of all — and not just because they did the Saints a solid. With each win, they fall in the draft order. Right now, they’re penciled in at No. 12, which is 10 picks after Ohio State pass rusher Chase Young is projected to go.

Young would have been the perfect draft pick for the Falcons. The Heisman finalist is considered the best prospect in 2020:

And he’d be the disrupting force that Atlanta needs on defense. Now, he’ll be long gone by the time the team picks.

Panic index: The Falcons were probably a long shot in the Young sweepstakes anyway. They have too talented of a roster to finish worse than the Giants or Dolphins this season.

You can’t blame the players for still trying to win games, either, especially when they’re trying to save Quinn’s job.

So maybe that means they’ll end up drafting outside the top 10. The Falcons can still land a quality player —just maybe not a true game-changing defensive player they could really use.