NFL Panic Index 2019: 42-year-old Tom Brady’s backup is a rookie with zero experience

This is it. No, not the Kenny Loggins song, cowritten by Michael McDonald. Right now, at this very moment, is the height of NFL optimism. The new season is approaching. Every team is on equal footing. There is still hope for all 32 fanbases.

Here’s where the but — no, not the E.U. song featured in the film School Daze — comes in. There is also a lot uncertainty, those nagging thoughts in the back of your mind that keep you awake at night. Maybe an entire offseason of buildup will fail to meet expectations. Maybe your team will do nothing but disappoint.

So let’s talk about it. What SHOULD you be worrying about at the outset of the 2019 season, and what can you just shrug off?

If Tom Brady gets hurt in 2019, things could go very, very wrong for the Patriots. Here’s what New England’s current quarterback depth chart looks like:

The Pats’ decision to release Brian Hoyer means the league’s oldest non-kicker is now being backed by a player whose only pro experience came in the preseason. Jarrett Stidham’s solid exhibition performance was enough to push New England into a two-man quarterback room when final cuts came down.

Hoyer was rumored to have been waiting on a roster spot to open up before rejoining the Pats, a la Demaryius Thomas. Any plans to re-sign Hoyer were promptly dashed, though, when the Colts offered him a three-year, $12 million deal to back up another former Patriots draftee, Jacoby Brissett.

Losing Hoyer robs New England of a high-floor, low-ceiling passer who has served as one of the league’s better backups over the past decade. He was also a strong locker room presence and a support system for Brady. In his place steps Stidham, a fourth-round pick whose efficiency dropped every year after his 2015 debut with Baylor.

While the rookie underwhelmed in his transition from playing Big 12 defenses to SEC ones, his preseason gave New England reason for confidence. He completed nearly 68 percent of his passes while throwing four touchdowns and just one interception, and his 8.1 yards per attempt average was a full half-yard higher than his senior year at Auburn. If he can keep that up, he might just be the next diamond Bill Belichick has dug out of the mid-rounds of the draft.

Or he could be the next Ryan Mallett or Kevin O’Connell.

Panic index: Brady had thrown three career passes before taking over for Drew Bledsoe in 2001. Matt Cassel had thrown 72 passes in the prior seven years — at USC and with New England — before leading the Pats to 11 wins in 2008. Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo each turned out pretty well.

Besides, Touchdown Tom hasn’t missed a start since his Deflategate suspension and hasn’t missed a game to injury since Cassel played his way into a (NSFW) K-Swiss endorsement deal. New England’s gonna be fine.

Ezekiel Elliott finished the 2018 season with 1,434 rushing yards and 567 receiving yards. Those 2,001 yards from scrimmage accounted for 36.4 percent of the Cowboys’ total offensive production.

Elliott held out from the team in hopes of getting a contract extension. That’s not an easy pursuit for running backs, but he was able to get his lucrative deal done a few days before the Cowboys kick off their season.

The question now becomes how game-ready Elliott will be. Despite Jason Garrett being adamant that Zeke can pick up where he left off, that’s easier said than done, especially after he missed all preseason. Two years ago, Le’Veon Bell followed a similar path. He returned to the Steelers before their season opener, and then rushed for just 32 yards on 10 carries against the Browns. It took Bell until Week 4 to find any sort of groove.

If Elliott isn’t at his peak performance, the Cowboys will have to turn to a rookie. Tony Pollard was drafted in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft and had a grand total of 15 carries in preseason.

Panic index: If Elliott needs some time to shake off the rust of a missed preseason, there’s hope on the roster. While he didn’t see much action, Pollard looked damn good in his limited time in preseason. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry and ran through four Rams defenders on a 14-yard touchdown.

Still, the Cowboys could be in real trouble without Elliott or with a rusty Elliott. He’s a workhorse back who’s averaged 21.7 rushing attempts per game in his NFL career. Pollard only topped 10 carries in a game twice during his career at Memphis and never once got to 20 rushing attempts.

The Dallas offense is largely built around Elliott. Matchups against the Giants, Washington, and the Dolphins in the first three weeks are easy enough that the Cowboys could start 3-0 even if he needs time to acclimate. And taking some time off could be the key to recharging his batteries — Elliott could look stronger than ever this fall once he gets back up to game speed.

Turning around a struggling Cardinals franchise is no one-year task. If Kliff Kingsbury is going to silence doubters he’ll have to present evidence his air raid offense can work in the NFL. That all begins with the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft — and it might be a struggle.

Kyler Murray suffered through an up-and-down preseason in his introduction to the league. He started with a 6-of-7 passing performance for only 44 yards in a Week 1 win against the Chargers, then bottomed out a week later by completing only 3 of 8 passes and taking an avoidable sack in the end zone in a loss to the Raiders. Though he rebounded the following week (14 of 21 for 137 yards), his 5.4 yards per preseason attempt was the lowest number from any of the Cardinals four quarterbacks during the exhibition circuit.

Murray doesn’t exactly have the tools he’ll need to thrive, either. Arizona’s offensive line remains a work of progress and was responsible for 52 sacks last year. Then-rookie Josh Rosen took the worst of those lapses, getting swallowed up on more than 10 percent of his dropbacks.

While Larry Fitzgerald remains the linchpin that holds the receiving corps together, he’s not surrounded by proven talent. Christian Kirk will have to make a big leap after a promising rookie season and will be playing with his third starting quarterback as a pro. Second-round pick Andy Isabella has dealt with injuries and struggled in limited preseason action. Hakeem Butler, who looked like a fourth-round steal back in April, was ineffective in training camp and will miss the season due to a broken hand. David Johnson, one of the league’s best receiving tailbacks, has been so thoroughly beaten down by the Cardinals experience that no one’s quite sure what he’ll bring to the table in 2019.

Still, Murray possesses an indefinable playmaking quality that made Oklahoma greater than the sum of its parts last fall. If he can do the same after a rocky preseason, he’ll make Kingsbury — and the Cardinals — look like geniuses.

Panic index: 2019 is a lost year for Arizona no matter what. As long as Murray doesn’t pick up the kind of bad habits that can derail his career and shows some kind of growth, Kingsbury can breathe easy. For one year, at least.

Even though Jimmy Garoppolo has been in the league since the 2014 season, no one really knows who he is as a player. The vast majority of his time in New England was spent sitting behind Tom Brady, which shouldn’t be held against him.

Since he was traded to the 49ers during the 2017 season, there have been two different versions of Garoppolo that we’ve seen. He was stellar in the final five games of that season, posting a QB rating of 80.7. That mark would’ve ranked first in the NFL if he had enough qualifying snaps.

His 2018 season wasn’t off to as great a start before he tore his ACL in Week 3. His yards per attempt dropped from 8.8 in 2017 to 8.1 in 2018 and his QB rating plummeted to 26.9 — that would’ve ranked second to last in the NFL (above Josh Rosen) if he had played enough snaps.

Garoppolo’s 2019 preseason was inconsistent, to say the least. He had a practice in which he threw five straight interceptions and then completed just 1 of 6 passes for zero yards and an interception in his preseason debut against the Denver Broncos. However, he bounced back in a strong way against the Chiefs, throwing for 188 yards and a touchdown in about a half of game action.

Panic index: There isn’t too much to be concerned about yet with Garoppolo. He might be a bit shaky to start off the regular season, but he’s a great fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He has the poise, accuracy, and athleticism to be a playmaker for the 49ers. He just needs to stay on the field.

It wasn’t long ago that fans of the Chicago Bears were talking about the potential of solving all of their kicker woes with a trade for Robbie Gould. Gould, now with the San Francisco 49ers after spending the bulk of his career in Chicago, wanted out. More than that, he wanted to go back to Chicago with his family.

Many felt it was only a matter of time before the 49ers traded Gould to the Bears, who happened to be searching for a reliable kicker after Cody Parkey’s missed field goal was the catalyst for their early exit from the playoffs. Fast forward to now and Gould is (seemingly) happily still with the 49ers and the Bears are starting the season with a guy who has never attempted a kick in the regular season: Eddy Pineiro.

More than that, they’re proceeding after one of the weirdest, sometimes-problematic, and oddly secretive kicker battles ever, as detailed by Sports Illustrated. That competition included intense golf-inspired analytics, oddly nebulous coaching points, far too many people, and a coach who seemed obsessed to the point of concern with Parkey’s miss in the playoffs.

And this is all on top of Parkey himself being a fine kicker who probably would have beaten out all nine of the guys in the competition.

Panic index: The Bears will hardly be the first team in history to enter the season with a young, unproven kicker. But they are a high-profile team, so if things go awry, they go awry in a very big way, as they did in the playoffs last year. There is plenty of reason to worry, but hey, at least Pineiro looked good in the preseason, going 8-for-9 on field goals with a 58-yarder.