It’s not easy to predict what the College Football Playoff committee will do when it releases its second poll Tuesday. After all, we don’t have any real insight into the committee’s selection criteria beyond what it did in the previous week, because it’s never issued an updated ranking before. Last week’s was the first ranking it had ever published.
College Football Playoff ranking predictions: How far will Ole Miss fall?
We don’t know much about how Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff committee ranking (released around 7:35 p.m. ET on ESPN) will update, since it’s never done that before. Like that ever stopped us.
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, that won’t stop us from trying. We at least have an official ranking to start with, and with only a few games impacting the top 10 or so this week, guessing which teams end up where shouldn’t be too difficult.
Here's what we expect from the committee Tuesday night, based on last week's rankings and results (and for further reference, here's this week's updated polls + computers composite ranking):
| Week 10 rank | Team | Record | Week 10 result | Expected Week 11 move |
| 1 | Mississippi State | 8-0 | Won 17-10 vs. Arkansas | Steady as she goes. A close win against the Hogs shouldn't be enough to change anything at the top. |
| 2 | Florida State | 8-0 | Won 42-31 at No. 25 Louisville | Likely steady, despite Auburn's win. Undefeated is still undefeated, and Louisville is no cupcake. |
| 3 | Auburn | 7-1 | Won 35-31 at No. 4 Ole Miss | Holding at No. 3, barring an unexpected jump over FSU. The Tigers' win at Ole Miss is perhaps the biggest of the year so far. |
| 4 | Ole Miss | 7-2 | Lost 35-31 vs. No. 3 Auburn | The Rebels will drop, perhaps to No. 9 or so. Whether it is past Alabama (which Ole Miss beat earlier this year) could show us how much the committee cares about pure won-loss record. Ole Miss' two losses came against No. 3 and at No. 19, so don't expect it to fall to the rest of the two-loss cluster. |
| 5 | Oregon | 8-1 | Won 45-16 vs. Stanford | Any chance of idle Alabama passing Oregon this week left when Oregon hammered Stanford. The Ducks get into the top four. |
| 6 | Alabama | 7-1 | Idle | Alabama stays at No. 6, passed by ... |
| 7 | TCU | 7-1 | Won 31-30 at No. 20 WVU | TCU's win in Morgantown should move the Frogs ahead of Alabama. Saturday's game against Kansas State will decide if they stay there. |
| 8 | Michigan State | 7-1 | Idle | Idle Sparty could lose a spot to KSU, but it's irrelevant to MSU's path to the Playoff: beat OSU Saturday, hold serve, and wait for carnage in the SEC West and Big 12. |
| 9 | Kansas State | 6-1 | Won 48-14 vs. Oklahoma St. | Not much movement after beating a staggered Okie State. Road trips to TCU, WVU, and Baylor give them a better chance of moving up. |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 7-1 | Won 49-39 at Navy | Losses below the Irish should cover up a lackluster performance at Navy. Notre Dame holds around No. 10. |
| 11 | Georgia | 6-2 | Lost 38-20 vs. Florida | Probably this week's biggest drop, and well deserved. To the 20s? |
| 12 | Arizona | 6-2 | Lost 17-7 at No. 22 UCLA | Saturday's ugly loss should send the Wildcats into the high teens. Remember they also have a win over Oregon, so they won't fall too far. |
| 13 | Baylor | 7-1 | Won 60-14 vs. Kansas | Losses ahead could move the Bears up a spot or two, but Baylor can't rely on margin of victory (which technically isn't even considered by the committee) to justify a larger move. |
| 14 | Arizona State | 7-1 | Won 19-16 vs. No. 17 Utah | The win over Utah should justify a jump over Baylor, and the Arizona and Georgia losses should push the Sun Devils near the top 10. |
| 15 | Nebraska | 8-1 | Won 35-14 vs. Purdue | The Huskers move up a couple of spots. The Big Ten West elimination round begins in two weeks. |
| 16 | Ohio State | 7-1 | Won 55-14 vs. Illinois | Pummeling Illinois isn't going to do much for the Buckeyes, but they get a couple of extra places for losses above. |
| 17 | Utah | 6-2 | Lost 19-16 at No. 14 Arizona St. | Utah will likely fall a few spots after a close loss at Arizona State, justified or not. |
| 18 | Oklahoma | 6-2 | Won 59-14 at Iowa St. | Oklahoma should pass Utah and Georgia, but could get caught from behind by UCLA. |
| 19 | LSU | 7-2 | Idle | LSU's win over Ole Miss looks slightly less impressive; its loss to Auburn slightly better. The Tigers hold their spot. |
| 20 | West Virginia | 6-3 | Lost 31-30 vs. No. 7 TCU | The soul-crushing nature of the Mountaineers' loss to TCU should keep them from falling too far, but there's not far to fall to exit the ranking completely. |
| 21 | Clemson | 6-2 | Idle | No movement, with WVU's drop and UCLA's rise canceling each other out. |
| 22 | UCLA | 7-2 | Won 17-7 vs. No. 12 Arizona | A big win over Arizona + weakness ahead of the Bruins in the poll = big move up. That is, unless the committee notices UCLA's previous loss to Utah. |
| 23 | East Carolina | 6-2 | Lost 20-10 at Temple | Say hello to the only non-power team in the poll. And wave goodbye, because the Pirates are not staying long. |
| 24 | Duke | 7-1 | Won 51-48 at Pittsburgh | Duke could move up slightly, but a win over Pitt isn't going to turn too many heads. |
| 25 | Louisville | 6-3 | Lost 42-31 vs. No. 2 Florida St. | In most circumstances, a near-miss against the nation's second-ranked team would keep a team in the poll. Not so much when that team is barely in the poll to begin with. The Cards are out for at least one week. |
Who enters to replace ECU and Louisville and maybe West Virginia? If the committee wants to hang onto at least one mid-major, it’ll be either Colorado State or Marshall. And USC and Wisconsin rank around the 20s in the polls and computers, so one is a decent bet to enter.
Check back here Tuesday night for the official ranking, and Wednesday morning for computer projections going forward.
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