Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green means 2 interim coaches and 2 super-fun offenses

The GoDaddy Bowl is a pretty clear reminder of the cost of mid-major success: Bowling Green and Georgia Southern have won a combined 35 games in the last two years, and now both have lost their respective head coaches and will take the field at Ladd-Peebles Stadium under interim head coaches. Hopefully both teams are ready to roll, however, because the option against the air raid could result in all sorts of entertainment.

Dec. 23, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

This wasn’t quite how things were supposed to go in Georgia Southern’s second season in FBS. The Eagles went 9-3 last fall, losing narrow games to two major-conference teams (NC State, Georgia Tech) and going undefeated in Sun Belt play. They had to rebuild the offensive line in 2015 but returned virtually everybody else for an encore showing. And while they still finished 8-4 and will now go bowling for the first time, 2015 had quite a few disappointing moments.

When the Eagles looked good, they looked fantastic. The average score in their eight wins (including a 43-17 pounding of WMU) was 47-18. But each of the four losses was demoralizing in its own way.

First came a 44-0 pounding at the hands of West Virginia in the season opener, a game many (including me) thought might have upset potential. Then, in late October, GS visited Appalachian State and got whooped in the second half, falling 31-13. They had Georgia on the ropes in Athens but stalled out in Georgia territory in the final minute and lost in overtime. Then, in the season finale, they had a chance to quash Georgia State’s bowl hopes but instead got drubbed, giving up 27 second-half points in a 34-7 loss. A lack of depth appeared to backfire frequently; they were outscored 85-16 after halftime in their losses.

And then they lost their coach. Willie Fritz stunned many by taking the Tulane job as bowl preparation was picking up. Running backs coach Dell McGee is running the team as interim coach until the school finds Fritz’s replacement.

A semi-disappointing season capped by the loss of your head coach can lead to a bit of a dud performance in a bowl. But this is still quite new for the Eagles. In their first year of postseason eligibility, the school is headed to Mobile. That might be enough of a deal to pull the Eagles through. And if the good version of this team shows up, this could be a fascinating game of contrasts. While Bowling Green racked up huge yards with an air raid system, Georgia Southern’s spread option produced four 600-yard rushers, including junior Matt Breida, one of the nation’s most explosive runners. An engaged GASO team could push this game into shootout territory.

It seemed like a perfect marraige, though we did have to wait a year. BGSU quarterback Matt Johnson broke through with a lovely finish to 2013, his sophomore season; he led the Falcons to the MAC title with nearly 3,500 yards passing, and when head coach Dave Clawson left for Wake Forest, the school brought in former Art Briles assistant Dino Babers to send Johnson’s numbers in the stratosphere.

And then Johnson got hurt one week into 2014. He was lost for the season, delaying his breakout by a season. It was worth the wait. In Babers’ high-powered system, Johnson thrived, throwing for 4,700 yards, 43 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions. The Falcons were among the most high-octane teams in the country, ranking fifth in scoring offense and ninth in Off. S&P+. After early losses to Tennessee and Memphis, BGSU rolled to the conference title, losing only to Toledo and blazing by NIU, 34-14, in the MAC Championship.

The 10-3 campaign earned Babers the Syracuse job. And after the GoDaddy Bowl, Johnson will have to decide if he wants to apply for a medical hardship or move on with his career.

On one hand, coming back would make sense. Johnson’s top three targets -- Gehrig Dieter, Roger Lewis, and Ronnie Moore -- are all scheduled to return in 2016 after combining for 238 catches, 3,304 yards, and 29 scores. If SBN’s college football braintrust combined to take the head coaching job, Johnson would still throw for another 4,000 yards next year.

On the other hand, Johnson doesn’t have much more to prove, and he’ll be working with a new head coach: Mike Jinks. The charismatic 43-year old was plucked from the high school ranks by Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury, who made him running backs coach in 2013. He won Texas’ 5A Division II championship with Steele high school in 2010, but he’s never been even a coordinator at the college level. He’s got plenty of offensive success on his record, but maybe Johnson doesn’t want to take the chance?

I’m betting Johnson comes back. But first, he gets to put on one more show in Mobile. Georgia Southern’s got a solid defense, ranking 53rd in Passing S&P+, but Bowling Green has scored at least 28 points in every game this year. If Southern is going to win this, the Eagles are going to have to get into a track meet.

Check out the monstrous stat preview here.

Both offenses hold the advantages in this one, but BGSU is projected to win comfortably because its advantages are, on average, larger. The Falcons have soared to 13th in overall S&P+, while GASO ranks just 53rd.

That said, Southern is one of the best field position teams in the country. The Eagles are efficient on offense and keep you reasonably inefficient on offense, and they hold a significant special teams advantage over Bowling Green, which ranks just 119th in Brian Fremeau’s special teams efficiency ratings. The Georgia Southern return and coverage games are much stronger, and if the Eagles can generate enough of a field position advantage, they’ll have margin for error when it comes to possession-by-possession gains. If BGSU breaks even in field position, Georgia Southern might be in trouble.