2015 Boca Raton Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Temple vs. Toledo
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December 22 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN ), FAU Football Stadium, Boca Raton
Spread: Temple -1
S&P+ Projection: Toledo 26.4, Temple 23.6
Team Sites: Hustle Belt (Toledo), Underdog Dynasty (Temple)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Toledo | Temple | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 25 | 39 | ||
| Category | Toledo offense | Temple defense | Temple offense | Toledo defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.66 (47) | 4.65 (19) | 5.30 (76) | 4.64 (18) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 452.6 (30) | 330.1 (17) | 378.2 (80) | 359.6 (40) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.75 (24) | 1.45 (17) | 2.41 (51) | 1.60 (23) |
| Category | Toledo offense | Temple defense | Temple offense | Toledo defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 32.6 (44) | 18.9 (14) | 27.7 (76) | 20.8 (24) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 107.1 (49) | 112.5 (31) | 95.0 (94) | 121.7 (11) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 101.8 (66) | 119.8 (16) | 99.7 (72) | 110.4 (33) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.2 (86) | 114.0 (23) | 89.3 (110) | 117.7 (13) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 118.7 (28) | 120.2 (17) | 117.4 (31) | 108.1 (42) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 110.2 (46) | 120.1 (22) | 95.3 (93) | 117.7 (28) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 102.5 (67) | 109.3 (50) | 98.6 (80) | 112.8 (31) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.9 (61) | 140.7 (4) | 103.0 (67) | 126.2 (12) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.2 (60) | 112.6 (29) | 88.8 (107) | 97.2 (76) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Toledo
- Run Stuffs (No. 5 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 2 defense vs. No. 117 offense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 11 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 13 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
Temple
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 5 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 4 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 13 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 9 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Toledo offense | Temple defense | Temple offense | Toledo defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.34 (26) | 1.32 (97) | 1.31 (40) | 1.18 (28) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.1% (64) | 33.9% (10) | 39.5% (92) | 38.4% (41) |
| FIELD POSITION | 32.7 (18) | 28.2 (38) | 34.0 (7) | 30.4 (82) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.4 (93) | 4.0 (20) | 4.8 (62) | 3.7 (8) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Toledo 9.50 (5) Temple 0.30 (69) | ACTUAL Toledo 7 (25) Temple 4 (40) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Toledo offense | Temple offense |
| Adj. Pace | 5.3 (23) | -3.9 (100) |
| Plays per game | 79.9 (21) | 71.4 (85) |
| Possessions per game | 12.8 (80) | 12.8 (81) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 63.6% (39) | 61.6% (53) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 31.3% (74) | 31.0% (76) |
| % of solo tackles | 67.6% (113) | 78.0% (41) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Toledo defense | Temple defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.0% (112) | 56.0% (103) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 26.9% (119) | 28.2% (112) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 20.5% (8) | 20.0% (10) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.8% (33) | 14.6% (4) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 9.4% (5) | 5.1% (102) |
| PD to INC | 40.4% (9) | 33.9% (54) |
When Toledo has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Toledo Offense | Temple Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.2 | 86 | 114.0 | 23 | Temple big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.7 | 79 | 39.8 | 10 | Temple big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 59 | 0.94 | 84 | Toledo |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.99 | 52 | 2.29 | 8 | Temple |
| SD Sack Rate | 0.5% | 1 | 5.1% | 62 | Toledo big |
Passing Downs
| Toledo Offense | Temple Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 118.7 | 28 | 120.2 | 17 | Temple |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.6 | 33 | 24.2 | 15 | Temple |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.93 | 27 | 1.78 | 83 | Toledo big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.25 | 122 | 2.95 | 43 | Temple big |
| PD Sack Rate | 1.8% | 2 | 7.6% | 58 | Toledo big |
When Temple has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Temple Offense | Toledo Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 89.3 | 110 | 117.7 | 13 | Toledo big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 42.7 | 109 | 42.8 | 39 | Toledo big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.09 | 68 | 1.14 | 3 | Toledo big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.49 | 118 | 1.89 | 1 | Toledo big |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.9% | 66 | 4.4% | 89 | Temple |
Passing Downs
| Temple Offense | Toledo Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 117.4 | 31 | 108.1 | 42 | Temple |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.2 | 41 | 30.8 | 69 | Temple |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.87 | 40 | 1.83 | 70 | Temple |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.63 | 108 | 3.62 | 107 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 3.2% | 5 | 4.7% | 110 | Temple big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Toledo | Phillip Ely | 6'1, 202 | SR | 206 | 375 | 2680 | 21 | 10 | 54.9% | 4 | 1.1% | 7.0 |
| Toledo | Michael Julian | 6'5, 215 | SO | 5 | 7 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 71.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 10.1 |
| Temple | P.J. Walker | 6'1, 200 | JR | 223 | 391 | 2737 | 19 | 7 | 57.0% | 17 | 4.2% | 6.5 |
| Temple | Frank Nutile | 6'4, 219 | FR | 3 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 13.3 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Toledo | Kareem Hunt | RB | 6'0, 225 | JR | 163 | 894 | 10 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 41.1% |
| Toledo | Terry Swanson | RB | 5'10, 202 | SO | 132 | 870 | 7 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 37.9% |
| Toledo | Damion Jones-Moore | RB | 5'7, 190 | JR | 80 | 404 | 5 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 38.8% |
| Toledo | Marc Remy | RB | 6'0, 195 | JR | 29 | 171 | 0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 44.8% |
| Temple | Jahad Thomas | RB | 5'10, 180 | JR | 268 | 1257 | 17 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 31.7% |
| Temple | P.J. Walker | QB | 6'1, 200 | JR | 54 | 274 | 2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 44.4% |
| Temple | Ryquell Armstead | RB | 5'11, 205 | FR | 43 | 166 | 2 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 34.9% |
| Temple | David Hood | RB | 5'9, 185 | FR | 42 | 170 | 1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 31.0% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Toledo | Corey Jones | WR | 5'9, 165 | JR | 81 | 52 | 535 | 4 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 64.2% |
| Toledo | Alonzo Russell | WR | 6'4, 205 | SR | 71 | 33 | 586 | 5 | 17.8 | 8.3 | 46.5% |
| Toledo | Cody Thompson | WR | 6'1, 202 | SO | 60 | 33 | 706 | 4 | 21.4 | 11.8 | 55.0% |
| Toledo | Michael Roberts | TE | 6'4, 265 | JR | 34 | 18 | 188 | 4 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 52.9% |
| Toledo | Kishon Wilcher | WR | 5'7, 180 | SR | 24 | 12 | 125 | 0 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 50.0% |
| Toledo | Diontae Johnson | WR | 5'11, 175 | FR | 23 | 12 | 209 | 3 | 17.4 | 9.1 | 52.2% |
| Toledo | Jon'Vea Johnson | WR | 6'0, 183 | FR | 17 | 8 | 101 | 0 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 47.1% |
| Temple | Robby Anderson | WR | 6'3, 190 | SR | 113 | 64 | 873 | 7 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 56.6% |
| Temple | Ventell Bryant | WR | 6'3, 181 | FR | 65 | 37 | 521 | 3 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 56.9% |
| Temple | Brandon Shippen | WR | 5'11, 191 | SR | 34 | 16 | 218 | 1 | 13.6 | 6.4 | 47.1% |
| Temple | Jahad Thomas | RB | 5'10, 180 | JR | 32 | 22 | 216 | 1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 68.8% |
| Temple | John Christopher | WR | 5'11, 189 | SR | 31 | 19 | 205 | 0 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 61.3% |
| Temple | Adonis Jennings | WR | 6'3, 190 | SO | 31 | 14 | 146 | 2 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 45.2% |
| Temple | Romond Deloatch | WR | 6'4, 214 | JR | 26 | 16 | 147 | 3 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 61.5% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Toledo | Chase Murdock | LB | 6'0, 225 | SR | 61.0 | 9.5% | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Toledo | Cheatham Norrils | CB | 6'0, 195 | SR | 51.0 | 8.0% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Toledo | DeJuan Rogers | DB | 6'1, 191 | JR | 50.0 | 7.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Toledo | Trent Voss | DE | 6'3, 235 | SR | 42.5 | 6.6% | 9.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Toledo | Jaylen Coleman | LB | 6'0, 235 | JR | 34.5 | 5.4% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Toledo | Chaz Whittaker | S | 6'2, 212 | SR | 34.5 | 5.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Toledo | Allen Covington | DE | 6'2, 275 | SR | 33.0 | 5.2% | 11.0 | 4.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Toledo | Rolan Milligan | S | 5'11, 198 | SR | 33.0 | 5.2% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Toledo | Ja'Wuan Woodley | LB | 5'11, 230 | SO | 32.0 | 5.0% | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Toledo | Orion Jones | DT | 6'2, 285 | SR | 31.5 | 4.9% | 11.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Toledo | Christian Dukes | CB | 5'9, 185 | SR | 24.5 | 3.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Toledo | Treyvon Hester | DT | 6'4, 305 | JR | 23.0 | 3.6% | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Toledo | Connery Swift | DB | 5'11, 195 | JR | 20.5 | 3.2% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Tyler Matakevich | LB | 6'1, 232 | SR | 100.5 | 14.8% | 15.0 | 4.5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Sean Chandler | DB | 5'11, 185 | SO | 51.5 | 7.6% | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Jarred Alwan | LB | 6'1, 237 | JR | 47.5 | 7.0% | 7.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Temple | Alex Wells | DB | 6'0, 203 | SR | 42.0 | 6.2% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Nate L. Smith | DB | 6'1, 188 | JR | 39.5 | 5.8% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Haason Reddick | DL | 6'1, 225 | JR | 37.0 | 5.4% | 12.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Temple | Avery Williams | LB | 5'10, 200 | JR | 36.0 | 5.3% | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Tavon Young | DB | 5'10, 180 | SR | 34.5 | 5.1% | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Matt Ioannidis | DL | 6'4, 292 | SR | 32.5 | 4.8% | 10.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Stephaun Marshall | LB | 5'11, 203 | JR | 30.5 | 4.5% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Temple | Nate D. Smith | DL | 6'0, 236 | SR | 27.0 | 4.0% | 9.5 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Hershey Walton | DL | 6'4, 314 | SR | 24.5 | 3.6% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Praise Martin-Oguike | DL | 6'2, 255 | JR | 23.5 | 3.5% | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Toledo | Nick Ellis | 5'11, 170 | JR | 38 | 38.2 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 65.8% |
| Toledo | Michael Julian | 6'5, 215 | SO | 1 | 36.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Temple | Alex Starzyk | 6'3, 213 | SO | 58 | 42.2 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 60.3% |
| Temple | Tyler Mayes | 6'2, 204 | SR | 1 | 45.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Toledo | Samuel Vucelich | 5'11, 185 | SO | 41 | 57.0 | 4 | 9.8% | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Temple | Tyler Mayes | 6'2, 204 | SR | 73 | 60.1 | 17 | 23.3% | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Temple | Austin Jones | 5'10, 196 | SO | 8 | 59.5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Toledo | Jameson Vest | 5'9, 203 | FR | 46-46 | 18-26 | 69.2% |
| Temple | Austin Jones | 5'10, 196 | SO | 44-45 | 20-25 | 80.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Toledo | Diontae Johnson | 5'11, 175 | FR | 30 | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Toledo | Kishon Wilcher | 5'7, 180 | SR | 6 | 18.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Temple | Jager Gardner | 6'2, 205 | FR | 14 | 21.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Temple | Robby Anderson | 6'3, 190 | SR | 8 | 14.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Toledo | Corey Jones | 5'9, 165 | JR | 18 | 10.5 | 0 | 15 | 1 (1) |
| Toledo | Kennedy Frazier | 6'1, 185 | SO | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Temple | Sean Chandler | 5'11, 185 | SO | 14 | 12.4 | 0 | 14 | 1 (1) |
| Temple | Robby Anderson | 6'3, 190 | SR | 9 | 5.9 | 0 | 2 | 1 (1) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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