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2015 St. Petersburg Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Marshall vs. Connecticut

St. Petersburg Bowl

Connecticut Huskies (6-6) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3)

December 26 ( 11:00 AM ET, ESPN ), Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Spread: Marshall -4.5
S&P+ Projection: Marshall 26.9, Connecticut 19.8
Team Sites: The UConn Blog, Underdog Dynasty (Marshall)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Connecticut Marshall
S&P+ (Rk) 89 64
Category Connecticut offense Marshall defense Marshall offense Connecticut defense
Yards per play (Rk) 4.73 (116) 4.74 (26) 5.16 (90) 4.88 (35)
Yards per game (Rk) 313.8 (123) 388.5 (59) 398.8 (65) 342.3 (25)
Points per possession (Rk) 1.44 (117) 1.24 (6) 2.31 (61) 1.66 (29)
Category Connecticut offense Marshall defense Marshall offense Connecticut defense
S&P+ (Rk) 19.6 (114) 23.5 (36) 26.4 (85) 23.9 (38)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 91.3 (108) 95.1 (84) 94.5 (99) 104.6 (52)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 95.8 (83) 109.3 (35) 96.6 (79) 108.0 (39)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 94.7 (96) 103.7 (49) 93.6 (103) 106.0 (44)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 88.4 (98) 105.0 (57) 103.7 (55) 104.0 (60)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 93.0 (100) 97.5 (73) 104.1 (64) 103.0 (51)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 91.3 (101) 111.9 (33) 106.1 (55) 107.7 (54)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 100.9 (77) 102.5 (63) 89.8 (103) 103.5 (60)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 89.2 (106) 111.9 (32) 77.1 (125) 102.6 (61)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Connecticut

  1. Redzone S&P+ (No. 20 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
  3. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 50 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
  4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 30 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
  5. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 44 defense vs. No. 103 offense)

Marshall

  1. Third Down S&P+ (No. 31 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 45 defense vs. No. 128 offense)
  3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 40 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
  4. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 42 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
  5. Field Position (No. 9 offense vs. No. 67 defense)
Five Factors
Category Connecticut offense Marshall defense Marshall offense Connecticut defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.18 (107) 1.18 (26) 1.20 (97) 1.19 (30)
EFFICIENCY 38.4% (102) 37.4% (29) 42.6% (57) 39.0% (47)
FIELD POSITION 30.0 (65) 27.4 (22) 33.5 (9) 29.8 (67)
FINISHING DRIVES 3.7 (118) 3.3 (1) 4.9 (56) 3.8 (14)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Connecticut 3.21 (39)
Marshall 4.67 (26)
ACTUAL
Connecticut 9 (17)
Marshall 4 (40)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Connecticut offense Marshall offense
Adj. Pace -7.6 (121) 2.0 (39)
Plays per game 66.3 (123) 77.3 (39)
Possessions per game 12.3 (108) 14.1 (17)
Std. Downs Run Rate 64.4% (35) 55.0% (92)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 37.2% (37) 29.8% (80)
% of solo tackles 71.8% (89) 59.0% (128)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Connecticut defense Marshall defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 61.6% (48) 58.8% (76)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 34.6% (58) 32.6% (75)
Overall Havoc Rate 15.2% (83) 19.2% (19)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 8.5% (88) 11.6% (25)
DB Havoc Rate 6.4% (63) 7.7% (21)
PD to INC 30.7% (84) 38.4% (23)

When Connecticut has the ball…

Standard Downs
Connecticut Offense Marshall Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 94.7 96 103.7 49 Marshall
Standard Downs Success Rate 44.5 97 42.2 26 Marshall big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.00 112 1.03 21 Marshall big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.35 124 3.00 85 Marshall
SD Sack Rate 11.6% 128 5.5% 45 Marshall big
Passing Downs
Connecticut Offense Marshall Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 88.4 98 105.0 57 Marshall
Passing Downs Success Rate 27.2 93 27.5 35 Marshall big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.71 84 1.68 59 Marshall
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.28 59 3.50 93 Connecticut
PD Sack Rate 8% 79 6.9% 73

When Marshall has the ball…

Standard Downs
Marshall Offense Connecticut Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 93.6 103 106.0 44 Connecticut big
Standard Downs Success Rate 47.9 50 43.1 42
Standard Downs IsoPPP 0.99 116 1.00 34 Connecticut big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.73 91 2.80 53 Connecticut
SD Sack Rate 3.2% 32 5.2% 57 Marshall
Passing Downs
Marshall Offense Connecticut Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 103.7 55 104.0 60
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.3 67 30.4 64
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.00 16 1.73 41 Marshall
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.61 28 2.61 15 Connecticut
PD Sack Rate 6.2% 47 5.8% 93 Marshall
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Connecticut Bryant Shirreffs 6'2, 220 SO 158 262 1992 9 7 60.3% 32 10.9% 6.3
Connecticut Tim Boyle 6'3, 224 JR 31 60 281 0 2 51.7% 2 3.2% 4.3
Connecticut Garrett Anderson 6'1, 236 JR 2 2 53 1 0 100.0% 1 33.3% 15.7
Marshall Chase Litton 6'6, 207 FR 207 349 2387 22 7 59.3% 15 4.1% 6.3
Marshall Michael Birdsong 6'5, 241 JR 43 80 365 2 4 53.8% 5 5.9% 3.9
Marshall Gunnar Holcombe 6'3, 212 JR 1 3 9 0 1 33.3% 0 0.0% 3.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Connecticut Arkeel Newsome RB 5'7, 182 SO 174 760 6 4.4 5.3 32.8%
Connecticut Bryant Shirreffs QB 6'2, 220 SO 103 582 3 5.7 3.2 58.3%
Connecticut Ron Johnson RB 5'11, 226 SO 87 216 4 2.5 3.3 25.3%
Connecticut Max DeLorenzo RB 5'11, 216 SR 13 36 0 2.8 3.8 15.4%
Marshall Hyleck Foster WR 5'11, 185 SO 87 415 3 4.8 4.7 37.9%
Marshall Devon Johnson RB 6'1, 244 SR 84 555 5 6.6 8.1 40.5%
Marshall Remi Watson RB 5'11, 207 SR 80 398 5 5.0 8.0 27.5%
Marshall Tony Pittman RB 5'10, 203 SO 64 327 3 5.1 4.5 37.5%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Connecticut Noel Thomas WR 6'1, 195 JR 91 54 719 3 13.3 7.9 59.3%
Connecticut Arkeel Newsome RB 5'7, 182 SO 53 40 432 2 10.8 8.2 75.5%
Connecticut Alec Bloom TE 6'6, 257 SO 33 20 290 1 14.5 8.8 60.6%
Connecticut Tyraiq Beals WR 6'0, 178 FR 31 23 271 2 11.8 8.7 74.2%
Connecticut Tommy Myers TE 6'5, 255 SO 20 16 232 2 14.5 11.6 80.0%
Connecticut Hergy Mayala WR 6'2, 200 FR 18 6 65 0 10.8 3.6 33.3%
Connecticut Thomas Lucas WR 6'2, 213 SO 15 7 83 0 11.9 5.5 46.7%
Marshall Davonte Allen WR 6'2, 200 SR 98 56 696 5 12.4 7.1 57.1%
Marshall Deandre Reaves WR 5'10, 179 SR 72 47 617 4 13.1 8.6 65.3%
Marshall Deon-Tay McManus WR 6'1, 228 SO 72 32 316 1 9.9 4.4 44.4%
Marshall Ryan Yurachek TE 6'3, 233 SO 48 39 361 8 9.3 7.5 81.2%
Marshall Justin Hunt WR 6'3, 203 JR 35 20 295 4 14.8 8.4 57.1%
Marshall Hyleck Foster WR 5'11, 185 SO 25 16 89 0 5.6 3.6 64.0%
Marshall Emanuel Byrd TE 6'3, 229 JR 23 17 191 1 11.2 8.3 73.9%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Connecticut Andrew Adams S 6'0, 198 SR 71.5 11.4% 3.5 0.0 3 3 0 0
Connecticut Obi Melifonwu S 6'3, 216 JR 65.0 10.3% 2.0 0.0 2 5 0 0
Connecticut Junior Joseph LB 6'1, 242 SO 62.5 9.9% 3.5 0.0 1 0 0 0
Connecticut Graham Stewart LB 6'1, 237 SR 48.0 7.6% 9.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Connecticut Jhavon Williams CB 5'10, 190 JR 45.5 7.2% 2.0 0.0 3 6 0 0
Connecticut Folorunso Fatukasi DL 6'4, 304 SO 37.0 5.9% 7.0 6.5 0 0 4 0
Connecticut Luke Carrezola LB 6'3, 255 SO 34.5 5.5% 11.5 6.0 0 1 2 0
Connecticut Matthew Walsh LB 6'1, 241 JR 32.0 5.1% 4.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Connecticut Marquise Vann LB 6'0, 231 SR 30.0 4.8% 2.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Connecticut Jamar Summers CB 6'0, 185 SO 30.0 4.8% 0.5 0.0 7 3 0 0
Connecticut Kenton Adeyemi DL 6'4, 291 SR 20.0 3.2% 3.5 2.0 0 0 0 0
Connecticut Julian Campenni DL 6'0, 306 SR 17.5 2.8% 4.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Connecticut Mikal Myers DL 6'1, 323 JR 17.0 2.7% 4.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Marshall Evan McKelvey LB 6'2, 218 SR 79.5 10.9% 9.0 0.0 1 9 1 1
Marshall Tiquan Lang S 5'8, 170 JR 63.5 8.7% 1.0 0.0 2 6 0 0
Marshall Taj Letman S 6'2, 185 SR 58.5 8.0% 3.5 0.0 3 7 1 0
Marshall Corey Tindal DB 5'10, 182 JR 51.0 7.0% 3.5 3.0 2 13 1 0
Marshall D.J. Hunter LB 6'0, 211 SR 43.0 5.9% 5.0 3.0 0 0 3 0
Marshall Gary Thompson DL 6'1, 252 JR 42.5 5.8% 11.5 8.0 0 4 5 0
Marshall Ryan Bee DL 6'7, 263 FR 35.0 4.8% 7.5 3.0 0 2 0 0
Marshall Antavis Rowe DB 5'11, 167 SO 32.5 4.5% 2.5 0.0 1 6 1 0
Marshall Devontre'a Tyler LB 6'2, 240 JR 29.5 4.1% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Marshall Jarquez Samuel DL 6'4, 287 SR 26.5 3.6% 6.0 1.0 0 4 0 1
Marshall Blake Keller DL 6'2, 234 SO 25.0 3.4% 5.5 0.5 0 0 1 0
Marshall Shawn Petty LB 6'2, 241 JR 24.0 3.3% 4.5 1.5 0 4 1 0
Marshall Rodney Allen DB 5'11, 180 SO 23.0 3.2% 1.0 0.0 3 2 0 1
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Connecticut Justin Wain 6'3, 214 JR 70 37.9 6 36 20 80.0%
Marshall Tyler Williams 6'0, 205 SR 68 44.3 9 18 22 58.8%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Connecticut Michael Tarbutt 6'0, 177 FR 26 57.7 5 19.2% 0 0 0 0
Connecticut Bobby Puyol 5'10, 178 JR 22 61.5 10 45.5% 1 0 3 1
Marshall Amoreto Curraj 6'2, 213 SO 72 62.5 41 56.9% 0 4 0 0
Marshall Kaare Vedvik 6'4, 200 SO 0 0.0 0 0.0% 0 0 1 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Connecticut Bobby Puyol 5'10, 178 JR 20-23 15-17 88.2%
Connecticut Michael Tarbutt 6'0, 177 FR 0-0 0-1 0.0%
Marshall Nick Smith 5'10, 175 SO 47-47 15-21 71.4%
Marshall Amoreto Curraj 6'2, 213 SO 1-1 0-2 0.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Connecticut Arkeel Newsome 5'7, 182 SO 19 22.6 0 0 0 (0)
Connecticut Josh Marriner 5'9, 201 SO 4 14.3 0 0 0 (0)
Marshall Deandre Reaves 5'10, 179 SR 22 30.5 2 0 0 (0)
Marshall Remi Watson 5'11, 207 SR 3 23.7 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Connecticut Nick Vitale 5'8, 176 JR 4 -3.3 0 17 2 (0)
Connecticut Brian Lemelle 5'10, 172 JR 2 7.5 0 8 0 (0)
Marshall Deandre Reaves 5'10, 179 SR 13 13.7 1 19 2 (1)
Marshall Hyleck Foster 5'11, 185 SO 9 4.1 0 6 2 (1)

Stats via SportSource Analytics

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