2015 St. Petersburg Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Marshall vs. Connecticut


Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
December 26 ( 11:00 AM ET, ESPN ), Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Spread: Marshall -4.5
S&P+ Projection: Marshall 26.9, Connecticut 19.8
Team Sites: The UConn Blog, Underdog Dynasty (Marshall)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Connecticut | Marshall | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 89 | 64 | ||
| Category | Connecticut offense | Marshall defense | Marshall offense | Connecticut defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 4.73 (116) | 4.74 (26) | 5.16 (90) | 4.88 (35) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 313.8 (123) | 388.5 (59) | 398.8 (65) | 342.3 (25) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 1.44 (117) | 1.24 (6) | 2.31 (61) | 1.66 (29) |
| Category | Connecticut offense | Marshall defense | Marshall offense | Connecticut defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 19.6 (114) | 23.5 (36) | 26.4 (85) | 23.9 (38) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 91.3 (108) | 95.1 (84) | 94.5 (99) | 104.6 (52) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 95.8 (83) | 109.3 (35) | 96.6 (79) | 108.0 (39) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 94.7 (96) | 103.7 (49) | 93.6 (103) | 106.0 (44) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 88.4 (98) | 105.0 (57) | 103.7 (55) | 104.0 (60) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.0 (100) | 97.5 (73) | 104.1 (64) | 103.0 (51) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 91.3 (101) | 111.9 (33) | 106.1 (55) | 107.7 (54) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 100.9 (77) | 102.5 (63) | 89.8 (103) | 103.5 (60) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 89.2 (106) | 111.9 (32) | 77.1 (125) | 102.6 (61) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Connecticut
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 20 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 50 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 30 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 44 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
Marshall
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 31 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 45 defense vs. No. 128 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 40 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 42 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
- Field Position (No. 9 offense vs. No. 67 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Connecticut offense | Marshall defense | Marshall offense | Connecticut defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.18 (107) | 1.18 (26) | 1.20 (97) | 1.19 (30) |
| EFFICIENCY | 38.4% (102) | 37.4% (29) | 42.6% (57) | 39.0% (47) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.0 (65) | 27.4 (22) | 33.5 (9) | 29.8 (67) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 3.7 (118) | 3.3 (1) | 4.9 (56) | 3.8 (14) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Connecticut 3.21 (39) Marshall 4.67 (26) | ACTUAL Connecticut 9 (17) Marshall 4 (40) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Connecticut offense | Marshall offense |
| Adj. Pace | -7.6 (121) | 2.0 (39) |
| Plays per game | 66.3 (123) | 77.3 (39) |
| Possessions per game | 12.3 (108) | 14.1 (17) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 64.4% (35) | 55.0% (92) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 37.2% (37) | 29.8% (80) |
| % of solo tackles | 71.8% (89) | 59.0% (128) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Connecticut defense | Marshall defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.6% (48) | 58.8% (76) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 34.6% (58) | 32.6% (75) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.2% (83) | 19.2% (19) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.5% (88) | 11.6% (25) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.4% (63) | 7.7% (21) |
| PD to INC | 30.7% (84) | 38.4% (23) |
When Connecticut has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Connecticut Offense | Marshall Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 94.7 | 96 | 103.7 | 49 | Marshall |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.5 | 97 | 42.2 | 26 | Marshall big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.00 | 112 | 1.03 | 21 | Marshall big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.35 | 124 | 3.00 | 85 | Marshall |
| SD Sack Rate | 11.6% | 128 | 5.5% | 45 | Marshall big |
Passing Downs
| Connecticut Offense | Marshall Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 88.4 | 98 | 105.0 | 57 | Marshall |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 27.2 | 93 | 27.5 | 35 | Marshall big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.71 | 84 | 1.68 | 59 | Marshall |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.28 | 59 | 3.50 | 93 | Connecticut |
| PD Sack Rate | 8% | 79 | 6.9% | 73 | |
When Marshall has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Marshall Offense | Connecticut Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 93.6 | 103 | 106.0 | 44 | Connecticut big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.9 | 50 | 43.1 | 42 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 0.99 | 116 | 1.00 | 34 | Connecticut big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.73 | 91 | 2.80 | 53 | Connecticut |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.2% | 32 | 5.2% | 57 | Marshall |
Passing Downs
| Marshall Offense | Connecticut Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 103.7 | 55 | 104.0 | 60 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.3 | 67 | 30.4 | 64 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.00 | 16 | 1.73 | 41 | Marshall |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.61 | 28 | 2.61 | 15 | Connecticut |
| PD Sack Rate | 6.2% | 47 | 5.8% | 93 | Marshall |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Connecticut | Bryant Shirreffs | 6'2, 220 | SO | 158 | 262 | 1992 | 9 | 7 | 60.3% | 32 | 10.9% | 6.3 |
| Connecticut | Tim Boyle | 6'3, 224 | JR | 31 | 60 | 281 | 0 | 2 | 51.7% | 2 | 3.2% | 4.3 |
| Connecticut | Garrett Anderson | 6'1, 236 | JR | 2 | 2 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 33.3% | 15.7 |
| Marshall | Chase Litton | 6'6, 207 | FR | 207 | 349 | 2387 | 22 | 7 | 59.3% | 15 | 4.1% | 6.3 |
| Marshall | Michael Birdsong | 6'5, 241 | JR | 43 | 80 | 365 | 2 | 4 | 53.8% | 5 | 5.9% | 3.9 |
| Marshall | Gunnar Holcombe | 6'3, 212 | JR | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 3.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Connecticut | Arkeel Newsome | RB | 5'7, 182 | SO | 174 | 760 | 6 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 32.8% |
| Connecticut | Bryant Shirreffs | QB | 6'2, 220 | SO | 103 | 582 | 3 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 58.3% |
| Connecticut | Ron Johnson | RB | 5'11, 226 | SO | 87 | 216 | 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 25.3% |
| Connecticut | Max DeLorenzo | RB | 5'11, 216 | SR | 13 | 36 | 0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 15.4% |
| Marshall | Hyleck Foster | WR | 5'11, 185 | SO | 87 | 415 | 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 37.9% |
| Marshall | Devon Johnson | RB | 6'1, 244 | SR | 84 | 555 | 5 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 40.5% |
| Marshall | Remi Watson | RB | 5'11, 207 | SR | 80 | 398 | 5 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 27.5% |
| Marshall | Tony Pittman | RB | 5'10, 203 | SO | 64 | 327 | 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 37.5% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Connecticut | Noel Thomas | WR | 6'1, 195 | JR | 91 | 54 | 719 | 3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 59.3% |
| Connecticut | Arkeel Newsome | RB | 5'7, 182 | SO | 53 | 40 | 432 | 2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 75.5% |
| Connecticut | Alec Bloom | TE | 6'6, 257 | SO | 33 | 20 | 290 | 1 | 14.5 | 8.8 | 60.6% |
| Connecticut | Tyraiq Beals | WR | 6'0, 178 | FR | 31 | 23 | 271 | 2 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 74.2% |
| Connecticut | Tommy Myers | TE | 6'5, 255 | SO | 20 | 16 | 232 | 2 | 14.5 | 11.6 | 80.0% |
| Connecticut | Hergy Mayala | WR | 6'2, 200 | FR | 18 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 33.3% |
| Connecticut | Thomas Lucas | WR | 6'2, 213 | SO | 15 | 7 | 83 | 0 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 46.7% |
| Marshall | Davonte Allen | WR | 6'2, 200 | SR | 98 | 56 | 696 | 5 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 57.1% |
| Marshall | Deandre Reaves | WR | 5'10, 179 | SR | 72 | 47 | 617 | 4 | 13.1 | 8.6 | 65.3% |
| Marshall | Deon-Tay McManus | WR | 6'1, 228 | SO | 72 | 32 | 316 | 1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 44.4% |
| Marshall | Ryan Yurachek | TE | 6'3, 233 | SO | 48 | 39 | 361 | 8 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 81.2% |
| Marshall | Justin Hunt | WR | 6'3, 203 | JR | 35 | 20 | 295 | 4 | 14.8 | 8.4 | 57.1% |
| Marshall | Hyleck Foster | WR | 5'11, 185 | SO | 25 | 16 | 89 | 0 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 64.0% |
| Marshall | Emanuel Byrd | TE | 6'3, 229 | JR | 23 | 17 | 191 | 1 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 73.9% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Connecticut | Andrew Adams | S | 6'0, 198 | SR | 71.5 | 11.4% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Obi Melifonwu | S | 6'3, 216 | JR | 65.0 | 10.3% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Junior Joseph | LB | 6'1, 242 | SO | 62.5 | 9.9% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Graham Stewart | LB | 6'1, 237 | SR | 48.0 | 7.6% | 9.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Jhavon Williams | CB | 5'10, 190 | JR | 45.5 | 7.2% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Folorunso Fatukasi | DL | 6'4, 304 | SO | 37.0 | 5.9% | 7.0 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Luke Carrezola | LB | 6'3, 255 | SO | 34.5 | 5.5% | 11.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Matthew Walsh | LB | 6'1, 241 | JR | 32.0 | 5.1% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Marquise Vann | LB | 6'0, 231 | SR | 30.0 | 4.8% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Jamar Summers | CB | 6'0, 185 | SO | 30.0 | 4.8% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Kenton Adeyemi | DL | 6'4, 291 | SR | 20.0 | 3.2% | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Julian Campenni | DL | 6'0, 306 | SR | 17.5 | 2.8% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Mikal Myers | DL | 6'1, 323 | JR | 17.0 | 2.7% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshall | Evan McKelvey | LB | 6'2, 218 | SR | 79.5 | 10.9% | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| Marshall | Tiquan Lang | S | 5'8, 170 | JR | 63.5 | 8.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshall | Taj Letman | S | 6'2, 185 | SR | 58.5 | 8.0% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshall | Corey Tindal | DB | 5'10, 182 | JR | 51.0 | 7.0% | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshall | D.J. Hunter | LB | 6'0, 211 | SR | 43.0 | 5.9% | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Marshall | Gary Thompson | DL | 6'1, 252 | JR | 42.5 | 5.8% | 11.5 | 8.0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Marshall | Ryan Bee | DL | 6'7, 263 | FR | 35.0 | 4.8% | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshall | Antavis Rowe | DB | 5'11, 167 | SO | 32.5 | 4.5% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshall | Devontre'a Tyler | LB | 6'2, 240 | JR | 29.5 | 4.1% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshall | Jarquez Samuel | DL | 6'4, 287 | SR | 26.5 | 3.6% | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Marshall | Blake Keller | DL | 6'2, 234 | SO | 25.0 | 3.4% | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshall | Shawn Petty | LB | 6'2, 241 | JR | 24.0 | 3.3% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshall | Rodney Allen | DB | 5'11, 180 | SO | 23.0 | 3.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Connecticut | Justin Wain | 6'3, 214 | JR | 70 | 37.9 | 6 | 36 | 20 | 80.0% |
| Marshall | Tyler Williams | 6'0, 205 | SR | 68 | 44.3 | 9 | 18 | 22 | 58.8% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Connecticut | Michael Tarbutt | 6'0, 177 | FR | 26 | 57.7 | 5 | 19.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | Bobby Puyol | 5'10, 178 | JR | 22 | 61.5 | 10 | 45.5% | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Marshall | Amoreto Curraj | 6'2, 213 | SO | 72 | 62.5 | 41 | 56.9% | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshall | Kaare Vedvik | 6'4, 200 | SO | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Connecticut | Bobby Puyol | 5'10, 178 | JR | 20-23 | 15-17 | 88.2% |
| Connecticut | Michael Tarbutt | 6'0, 177 | FR | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| Marshall | Nick Smith | 5'10, 175 | SO | 47-47 | 15-21 | 71.4% |
| Marshall | Amoreto Curraj | 6'2, 213 | SO | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Connecticut | Arkeel Newsome | 5'7, 182 | SO | 19 | 22.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Connecticut | Josh Marriner | 5'9, 201 | SO | 4 | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Marshall | Deandre Reaves | 5'10, 179 | SR | 22 | 30.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Marshall | Remi Watson | 5'11, 207 | SR | 3 | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Connecticut | Nick Vitale | 5'8, 176 | JR | 4 | -3.3 | 0 | 17 | 2 (0) |
| Connecticut | Brian Lemelle | 5'10, 172 | JR | 2 | 7.5 | 0 | 8 | 0 (0) |
| Marshall | Deandre Reaves | 5'10, 179 | SR | 13 | 13.7 | 1 | 19 | 2 (1) |
| Marshall | Hyleck Foster | 5'11, 185 | SO | 9 | 4.1 | 0 | 6 | 2 (1) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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