2015 Quick Lane Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
December 28 ( 5:00 PM ET, ESPN2 ), Ford Field, Detroit
Spread: Minnesota -5.5
S&P+ Projection: Minnesota 31.1, Central Michigan 21.6
Team Sites: Hustle Belt (CMU), The Daily Gopher
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
The Basics
| Category | Central Michigan | Minnesota | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 75 | 35 | ||
| Category | Central Michigan offense | Minnesota defense | Minnesota offense | Central Michigan defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.37 (68) | 4.72 (25) | 5.03 (95) | 4.81 (32) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 400.8 (63) | 351.3 (31) | 350.2 (106) | 318.6 (14) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.12 (74) | 2.03 (65) | 1.72 (105) | 1.79 (42) |
| Category | Central Michigan offense | Minnesota defense | Minnesota offense | Central Michigan defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 27.4 (80) | 20.4 (21) | 30.3 (55) | 27.1 (59) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 81.8 (120) | 99.1 (71) | 101.0 (72) | 93.5 (88) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 112.8 (36) | 113.8 (24) | 113.2 (34) | 100.4 (66) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.9 (74) | 106.5 (42) | 111.0 (34) | 92.6 (92) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 107.2 (47) | 106.3 (53) | 99.6 (70) | 113.9 (27) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 99.3 (81) | 98.4 (69) | 102.1 (72) | 82.2 (122) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 94.4 (94) | 111.1 (39) | 115.7 (31) | 88.9 (103) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.1 (30) | 107.6 (46) | 101.2 (75) | 128.3 (11) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 87.7 (111) | 110.7 (35) | 110.4 (37) | 120.2 (15) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Central Michigan
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 26 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 36 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
- Q3 S&P+ (No. 15 vs. No. 65 )
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 27 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
- Field Position (No. 48 offense vs. No. 85 defense)
Minnesota
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 11 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 22 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 40 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 17 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Central Michigan offense | Minnesota defense | Minnesota offense | Central Michigan defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.32 (33) | 1.10 (7) | 1.22 (84) | 1.22 (50) |
| EFFICIENCY | 41.6% (71) | 41.8% (68) | 39.4% (93) | 40.4% (62) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.6 (48) | 30.6 (85) | 28.2 (105) | 30.8 (88) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.1 (106) | 4.8 (83) | 4.4 (87) | 4.5 (50) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Central Michigan 1.88 (54) Minnesota -3.65 (102) | ACTUAL Central Michigan 2 (52) Minnesota -4 (94) | ||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Central Michigan offense | Minnesota offense |
| Adj. Pace | -1.6 (72) | -5.5 (115) |
| Plays per game | 74.7 (58) | 69.7 (97) |
| Possessions per game | 12.7 (86) | 13.2 (60) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 50.4% (112) | 61.6% (54) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 24.9% (112) | 26.4% (104) |
| % of solo tackles | 81.1% (19) | 72.6% (82) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Central Michigan defense | Minnesota defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.1% (46) | 62.9% (39) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.3% (99) | 38.5% (22) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 14.2% (98) | 15.7% (64) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 7.7% (103) | 9.5% (64) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.5% (58) | 6.2% (69) |
| PD to INC | 28.2% (102) | 34.2% (51) |
When Central Michigan has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Central Michigan Offense | Minnesota Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 99.9 | 74 | 106.5 | 42 | Minnesota |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.5 | 85 | 46.1 | 63 | Minnesota |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.13 | 52 | 1.06 | 9 | Minnesota |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.51 | 114 | 3.06 | 91 | Minnesota |
| SD Sack Rate | 3% | 26 | 2.9% | 113 | Central Michigan big |
Passing Downs
| Central Michigan Offense | Minnesota Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 107.2 | 47 | 106.3 | 53 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.1 | 35 | 32.0 | 84 | Central Michigan |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.82 | 51 | 1.86 | 14 | Minnesota |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.54 | 112 | 3.37 | 80 | Minnesota |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.8% | 74 | 8.7% | 35 | Minnesota |
When Minnesota has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Minnesota Offense | Central Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 111.0 | 34 | 92.6 | 92 | Minnesota big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.3 | 101 | 47.4 | 76 | Central Michigan |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.13 | 53 | 0.97 | 48 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.90 | 68 | 2.81 | 55 | Central Michigan |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.7% | 40 | 2.2% | 122 | Minnesota big |
Passing Downs
| Minnesota Offense | Central Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 99.6 | 70 | 113.9 | 27 | Central Michigan |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.3 | 75 | 24.9 | 18 | Central Michigan big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.51 | 121 | 1.53 | 95 | Central Michigan |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.32 | 54 | 2.73 | 21 | Central Michigan |
| PD Sack Rate | 4% | 11 | 3.9% | 118 | Minnesota big |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate | Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Central Michigan | Cooper Rush | 6'3, 227 | JR | 309 | 460 | 3703 | 25 | 10 | 67.2% | 25 | 5.2% | 7.2 |
| Minnesota | Mitch Leidner | 6'4, 237 | JR | 218 | 377 | 2478 | 13 | 10 | 57.8% | 14 | 3.6% | 6.1 |
| Minnesota | Demry Croft | 6'5, 200 | FR | 7 | 17 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 41.2% | 3 | 15.0% | 0.9 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry | Hlt Yds/ Opp. | Opp. Rate |
| Central Michigan | Martez Walker | RB | 5'8, 185 | JR | 106 | 373 | 2 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 30.2% |
| Central Michigan | Jahray Hayes | RB | 5'11, 210 | JR | 93 | 323 | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 29.0% |
| Central Michigan | Devon Spalding | RB | 5'11, 203 | SO | 52 | 182 | 1 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 26.9% |
| Central Michigan | Romello Ross | RB | 5'10, 189 | FR | 35 | 147 | 3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 40.0% |
| Minnesota | Rodney Smith | RB | 5'11, 200 | FR | 142 | 596 | 2 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 37.3% |
| Minnesota | Shannon Brooks | RB | 6'0, 206 | FR | 104 | 644 | 7 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 31.7% |
| Minnesota | Mitch Leidner | QB | 6'4, 237 | JR | 84 | 335 | 5 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 34.5% |
| Minnesota | Rodrick Williams Jr. | RB | 5'11, 234 | SR | 33 | 108 | 1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 24.2% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch | Yds/ Target | Catch Rate |
| Central Michigan | Jesse Kroll | WR | 6'3, 214 | SR | 92 | 59 | 856 | 4 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 64.1% |
| Central Michigan | Anthony Rice | WR | 6'0, 179 | JR | 75 | 56 | 584 | 4 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 74.7% |
| Central Michigan | Mark Chapman | WR | 6'0, 181 | SO | 57 | 43 | 559 | 1 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 75.4% |
| Central Michigan | Ben McCord | TE | 6'4, 240 | SR | 56 | 37 | 570 | 5 | 15.4 | 10.2 | 66.1% |
| Central Michigan | Corey Willis | WR | 5'10, 175 | SO | 50 | 33 | 513 | 5 | 15.6 | 10.3 | 66.0% |
| Central Michigan | Martez Walker | RB | 5'8, 185 | JR | 25 | 19 | 97 | 0 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 76.0% |
| Central Michigan | Devon Spalding | RB | 5'11, 203 | SO | 18 | 14 | 125 | 0 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 77.8% |
| Minnesota | KJ Maye | WR | 5'10, 194 | SR | 115 | 65 | 706 | 4 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 56.5% |
| Minnesota | Drew Wolitarsky | WR | 6'3, 218 | JR | 57 | 36 | 472 | 3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 63.2% |
| Minnesota | Brandon Lingen | TE | 6'5, 247 | SO | 43 | 28 | 395 | 3 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 65.1% |
| Minnesota | Rashad Still | WR | 6'5, 202 | FR | 36 | 18 | 194 | 3 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 50.0% |
| Minnesota | Eric Carter | WR | 5'11, 189 | SO | 33 | 21 | 245 | 1 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 63.6% |
| Minnesota | Rodney Smith | RB | 5'11, 200 | FR | 21 | 15 | 119 | 0 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 71.4% |
| Minnesota | Shannon Brooks | RB | 6'0, 206 | FR | 17 | 13 | 122 | 0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 76.5% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Central Michigan | Kavon Frazier | DB | 6'0, 218 | SR | 86.0 | 14.5% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Tony Annese | DB | 6'1, 209 | JR | 60.0 | 10.1% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Malik Fountain | LB | 6'2, 233 | FR | 43.5 | 7.3% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Nathan Ricketts | LB | 6'3, 237 | JR | 39.0 | 6.6% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Josh Cox | DB | 5'11, 190 | SO | 38.5 | 6.5% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Tim Hamilton | LB | 6'1, 243 | SR | 35.0 | 5.9% | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Amari Coleman | DB | 5'10, 185 | SO | 33.5 | 5.7% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Tyree Waller | LB | 6'1, 225 | SO | 29.5 | 5.0% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Blake Serpa | DL | 6'3, 256 | SR | 29.0 | 4.9% | 9.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Kelby Latta | DL | 6'4, 305 | JR | 25.5 | 4.3% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Jeff Perry | LB | 6'2, 228 | SO | 22.5 | 3.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Louis Palmer | DL | 6'2, 290 | SR | 20.5 | 3.5% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | Chris Kantzavelos | DL | 6'3, 265 | SO | 17.5 | 3.0% | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Antonio Johnson | DB | 6'0, 206 | SR | 77.5 | 11.1% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Cody Poock | LB | 6'2, 230 | SO | 74.0 | 10.6% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Minnesota | De'Vondre Campbell | LB | 6'5, 239 | SR | 69.5 | 9.9% | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Jack Lynn | LB | 6'3, 238 | JR | 56.0 | 8.0% | 9.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Eric Murray | DB | 6'0, 199 | SR | 54.5 | 7.8% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Briean Boddy-Calhoun | DB | 5'11, 190 | SR | 37.5 | 5.3% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Adekunle Ayinde | DB | 6'0, 203 | SO | 34.0 | 4.9% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Duke McGhee | DB | 6'1, 207 | SO | 29.0 | 4.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Jonathan Celestin | LB | 6'1, 224 | SO | 27.5 | 3.9% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Theiren Cockran | DL | 6'6, 258 | SR | 22.5 | 3.2% | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Jalen Myrick | DB | 5'10, 205 | JR | 21.5 | 3.1% | 3.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Steven Richardson | DT | 6'0, 291 | SO | 20.0 | 2.9% | 8.0 | 3.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Alex Keith | DL | 6'3, 254 | SR | 17.5 | 2.5% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Central Michigan | Ron Coluzzi | 5'11, 182 | JR | 59 | 39.2 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 62.7% |
| Minnesota | Peter Mortell | 6'2, 200 | SR | 70 | 43.3 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 57.1% |
| Minnesota | Ryan Santoso | 6'6, 250 | SO | 1 | 29.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches | Onside Att | Onside Success |
| Central Michigan | Ron Coluzzi | 5'11, 182 | JR | 64 | 61.0 | 21 | 32.8% | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Ryan Santoso | 6'6, 250 | SO | 53 | 62.1 | 25 | 47.2% | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Minnesota | Andrew Harte | 6'0, 181 | SO | 1 | 19.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Central Michigan | Brian Eavey | 6'2, 192 | JR | 36-36 | 16-24 | 66.7% |
| Minnesota | Ryan Santoso | 6'6, 250 | SO | 30-30 | 15-19 | 78.9% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Central Michigan | Emmitt Thomas | 5'10, 160 | FR | 27 | 20.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 (0) |
| Central Michigan | Mark Chapman | 6'0, 181 | SO | 3 | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Minnesota | Jalen Myrick | 5'10, 205 | JR | 12 | 21.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Minnesota | KiAnte Hardin | 5'10, 170 | FR | 11 | 24.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Central Michigan | Emmitt Thomas | 5'10, 160 | FR | 9 | 3.7 | 0 | 14 | 1 (0) |
| Central Michigan | Kavon Frazier | 6'0, 218 | SR | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Minnesota | Craig James | 5'10, 189 | SO | 12 | -0.6 | 0 | 7 | 4 (1) |
| Minnesota | KiAnte Hardin | 5'10, 170 | FR | 6 | 5.5 | 0 | 6 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
See More:
