Idaho Vandals (8-4) vs. Colorado State Rams (7-5)
December 22, 2016 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Colorado State -13.5
S&P+ Projection: Colorado State (40.5-22.3)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Idaho | Colorado State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 96 | 23 | ||
| Category | Idaho offense | Colorado State defense | Colorado State offense | Idaho defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.21 (89) | 5.83 (90) | 6.22 (25) | 6.00 (105) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 381.4 (91) | 404.3 (60) | 444.2 (43) | 431.2 (80) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.31 (60) | 2.35 (82) | 2.78 (24) | 2.50 (91) |
| Category | Idaho offense | Colorado State defense | Colorado State offense | Idaho defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 25.0 (92) | 28.5 (58) | 38.4 (19) | 33.7 (94) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 94.0 (96) | 91.9 (99) | 118.5 (17) | 96.6 (79) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 104.5 (55) | 106.5 (43) | 125.1 (16) | 89.7 (110) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.1 (84) | 98.8 (69) | 122.1 (10) | 89.1 (115) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 104.7 (65) | 94.5 (88) | 110.1 (47) | 103.2 (58) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.7 (61) | 98.3 (76) | 131.6 (9) | 85.3 (118) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 96.3 (88) | 99.8 (72) | 115.8 (34) | 83.0 (120) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 102.2 (62) | 93.8 (94) | 119.8 (21) | 109.3 (35) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 96.2 (91) | 95.1 (80) | 102.6 (63) | 93.7 (86) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Idaho
- Field Position (No. 8 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 63 offense vs. No. 108 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 86 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 44 offense vs. No. 77 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 65 offense vs. No. 88 defense)
Colorado State
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 7 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 10 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 4 offense vs. No. 108 defense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 109 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 107 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Idaho offense | Colorado State defense | Colorado State offense | Idaho defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.24 (82) | 1.26 (74) | 1.35 (28) | 1.24 (55) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.4% (54) | 43.5% (81) | 46.6% (21) | 44.5% (93) |
| FIELD POSITION | 33.3 (11) | 26.9 (14) | 30.0 (57) | 26.2 (8) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.2 (88) | 4.9 (103) | 5.4 (4) | 4.9 (101) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Idaho 4.38 (29) Colorado State 0.81 (66) |
ACTUAL Idaho 8 (14) Colorado State 2 (52) |
||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Idaho offense | Colorado State offense |
| Adj. Pace | -2.5 (84) | -1.3 (73) |
| Plays per game | 73.2 (69) | 71.4 (84) |
| Possessions per game | 12.3 (106) | 12.3 (106) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.0% (97) | 66.2% (29) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 36.3% (42) | 36.1% (45) |
| % of solo tackles | 80.5% (20) | 71.3% (95) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Idaho defense | Colorado State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.7% (106) | 68.9% (10) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 28.2% (113) | 43.5% (5) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 14.9% (87) | 15.7% (62) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.1% (84) | 10.5% (38) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.0% (73) | 5.2% (105) |
| PD to INC | 33.8% (58) | 32.5% (72) |
When Idaho has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Idaho Offense | Colorado State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.1 | 84 | 98.8 | 69 | Colorado State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.3 | 72 | 47.3 | 59 | Colorado State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 63 | 1.15 | 81 | Idaho |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.89 | 83 | 3.25 | 102 | Idaho |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.8% | 40 | 7.4% | 18 | Colorado State |
Passing Downs
| Idaho Offense | Colorado State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 104.7 | 65 | 94.5 | 88 | Idaho |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.5 | 39 | 35.5 | 114 | Idaho big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.66 | 93 | 1.59 | 20 | Colorado State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.58 | 36 | 3.90 | 118 | Idaho big |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.2% | 24 | 10.5% | 16 | |
When Colorado State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Colorado State Offense | Idaho Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 122.1 | 10 | 89.1 | 115 | Colorado State big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 52.0 | 18 | 51.0 | 108 | Colorado State big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.25 | 18 | 1.14 | 88 | Colorado State big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.35 | 15 | 2.70 | 33 | Colorado State |
| SD Sack Rate | 2% | 4 | 2.9% | 108 | Colorado State big |
Passing Downs
| Colorado State Offense | Idaho Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 110.1 | 47 | 103.2 | 58 | Colorado State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.3 | 41 | 30.1 | 53 | Colorado State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.74 | 67 | 1.61 | 16 | Idaho big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.12 | 80 | 4.06 | 126 | Colorado State |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.3% | 15 | 8% | 61 | Colorado State |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
