Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs (9-3)
December 23, 2016 ( 1:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Old Dominion -4.5
S&P+ Projection: Old Dominion (33.8-29.3)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Eastern Michigan | Old Dominion | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 84 | 63 | ||
| Category | Eastern Michigan offense | Old Dominion defense | Old Dominion offense | Eastern Michigan defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.72 (56) | 5.33 (52) | 6.30 (21) | 5.79 (88) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 451.0 (40) | 379.1 (47) | 448.0 (42) | 451.6 (101) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.30 (61) | 2.15 (66) | 2.81 (21) | 2.29 (81) |
| Category | Eastern Michigan offense | Old Dominion defense | Old Dominion offense | Eastern Michigan defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 30.1 (63) | 30.5 (74) | 30.3 (61) | 35.3 (105) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 88.5 (114) | 100.6 (63) | 107.1 (46) | 92.9 (93) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 103.8 (58) | 107.8 (38) | 106.6 (51) | 91.7 (99) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 94.9 (94) | 98.9 (68) | 104.8 (53) | 90.8 (103) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 99.5 (74) | 127.8 (13) | 106.3 (59) | 99.7 (69) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 97.1 (87) | 100.8 (63) | 98.4 (80) | 100.2 (65) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 93.1 (101) | 90.7 (99) | 102.5 (67) | 98.2 (79) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 101.1 (65) | 105.8 (45) | 115.3 (29) | 91.5 (100) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 107.3 (45) | 93.0 (92) | 93.4 (98) | 83.8 (121) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Eastern Michigan
- Run Stuffs (No. 42 offense vs. No. 107 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 68 offense vs. No. 102 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 58 defense vs. No. 89 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 69 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 65 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
Old Dominion
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 6 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 28 defense vs. No. 100 offense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 51 defense vs. No. 122 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 33 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 53 offense vs. No. 120 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Eastern Michigan offense | Old Dominion defense | Old Dominion offense | Eastern Michigan defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.21 (91) | 1.18 (24) | 1.43 (11) | 1.13 (9) |
| EFFICIENCY | 43.9% (47) | 40.7% (47) | 44.5% (39) | 47.8% (118) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.4 (71) | 28.2 (45) | 34.8 (2) | 26.6 (11) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (51) | 4.8 (97) | 4.9 (34) | 5.0 (111) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Eastern Michigan 3.76 (37) Old Dominion 10.88 (1) |
ACTUAL Eastern Michigan 1 (56) Old Dominion 13 (4) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Eastern Michigan offense | Old Dominion offense |
| Adj. Pace | 3.4 (27) | -3.7 (96) |
| Plays per game | 78.8 (25) | 71.1 (87) |
| Possessions per game | 13.3 (46) | 12.8 (78) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.7% (89) | 58.8% (75) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 27.5% (106) | 43.5% (18) |
| % of solo tackles | 63.8% (121) | 55.6% (126) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Eastern Michigan defense | Old Dominion defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 54.8% (111) | 60.9% (59) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 35.9% (53) | 31.0% (95) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 14.3% (94) | 17.2% (35) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 7.9% (89) | 10.7% (33) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.2% (66) | 6.5% (49) |
| PD to INC | 33.5% (61) | 35.5% (41) |
When Eastern Michigan has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Eastern Michigan Offense | Old Dominion Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 94.9 | 94 | 98.9 | 68 | Old Dominion |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.6 | 52 | 48.0 | 75 | Eastern Michigan |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.05 | 95 | 1.02 | 47 | Old Dominion |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.89 | 83 | 2.93 | 62 | Old Dominion |
| SD Sack Rate | 2% | 4 | 8% | 10 | |
Passing Downs
| Eastern Michigan Offense | Old Dominion Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 99.5 | 74 | 127.8 | 13 | Old Dominion big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.5 | 40 | 24.7 | 14 | Old Dominion |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.73 | 70 | 1.65 | 22 | Old Dominion |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.20 | 76 | 3.24 | 65 | Old Dominion |
| PD Sack Rate | 3.8% | 9 | 10% | 20 | Eastern Michigan |
When Old Dominion has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Old Dominion Offense | Eastern Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 104.8 | 53 | 90.8 | 103 | Old Dominion |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.2 | 25 | 53.6 | 122 | Old Dominion big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.21 | 28 | 1.07 | 25 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.91 | 79 | 3.12 | 89 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.2% | 6 | 3.7% | 96 | Old Dominion big |
Passing Downs
| Old Dominion Offense | Eastern Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 106.3 | 59 | 99.7 | 69 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.3 | 86 | 31.1 | 65 | Eastern Michigan |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.26 | 1 | 1.61 | 32 | Old Dominion |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.86 | 15 | 3.46 | 92 | Old Dominion big |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.3% | 71 | 6% | 97 | Old Dominion |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
