Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4)
December 28, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Texas A&M -2
S&P+ Projection: Texas A&M (32.1-27.5)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Texas A&M | Kansas State | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 19 | 38 | ||
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Kansas State defense | Kansas State offense | Texas A&M defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.17 (27) | 5.49 (63) | 5.41 (75) | 5.35 (54) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 469.4 (25) | 375.4 (43) | 383.8 (89) | 455.9 (105) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.47 (46) | 1.81 (35) | 2.76 (28) | 1.63 (20) |
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Kansas State defense | Kansas State offense | Texas A&M defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 35.9 (27) | 25.8 (39) | 32.8 (46) | 24.6 (37) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 113.3 (31) | 114.1 (26) | 114.4 (29) | 103.2 (56) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 107.4 (49) | 100.6 (60) | 84.2 (111) | 103.7 (51) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 103.8 (57) | 104.8 (42) | 105.3 (51) | 99.6 (63) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 126.1 (15) | 105.9 (49) | 95.1 (88) | 115.7 (27) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.9 (42) | 112.9 (30) | 116.1 (33) | 106.5 (43) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 107.6 (52) | 110.9 (39) | 99.9 (76) | 112.3 (33) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 113.7 (33) | 102.1 (53) | 102.1 (63) | 116.6 (20) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 110.5 (30) | 94.8 (83) | 99.0 (79) | 91.1 (101) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Texas A&M
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 10 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 22 defense vs. No. 104 offense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 44 defense vs. No. 122 offense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 27 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
- Passing S&P+ (No. 51 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
Kansas State
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 7 defense vs. No. 97 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 17 offense vs. No. 71 defense)
- Field Position (No. 17 defense vs. No. 61 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 offense vs. No. 59 defense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 40 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Kansas State defense | Kansas State offense | Texas A&M defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.39 (18) | 1.23 (51) | 1.10 (127) | 1.21 (36) |
| EFFICIENCY | 41.2% (81) | 43.3% (77) | 48.6% (11) | 41.8% (58) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.8 (61) | 27.0 (17) | 31.8 (29) | 28.7 (54) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.0 (22) | 4.4 (57) | 4.9 (28) | 3.6 (11) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Texas A&M 5.84 (20) Kansas State 5.26 (25) |
ACTUAL Texas A&M 5 (31) Kansas State 11 (6) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Texas A&M offense | Kansas State offense |
| Adj. Pace | 1.0 (54) | -1.8 (76) |
| Plays per game | 76.1 (47) | 70.9 (90) |
| Possessions per game | 14.3 (8) | 11.7 (123) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.9% (84) | 73.4% (10) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.9% (61) | 33.2% (70) |
| % of solo tackles | 72.8% (79) | 87.4% (3) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Texas A&M defense | Kansas State defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 59.3% (69) | 47.6% (125) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.7% (65) | 30.4% (97) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.9% (17) | 16.7% (42) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 11.7% (19) | 10.9% (29) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.2% (35) | 5.9% (81) |
| PD to INC | 36.4% (32) | 34.6% (51) |
When Texas A&M has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Texas A&M Offense | Kansas State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 103.8 | 57 | 104.8 | 42 | Kansas State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 44.0 | 106 | 47.6 | 66 | Kansas State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.20 | 35 | 1.12 | 66 | Texas A&M |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.07 | 59 | 2.65 | 29 | Kansas State |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.5% | 35 | 4.8% | 65 | Texas A&M |
Passing Downs
| Texas A&M Offense | Kansas State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 126.1 | 15 | 105.9 | 49 | Texas A&M |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.8 | 30 | 33.3 | 90 | Texas A&M big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.96 | 16 | 1.53 | 31 | Texas A&M |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.02 | 10 | 3.53 | 97 | Texas A&M big |
| PD Sack Rate | 4.6% | 16 | 9.7% | 23 | |
When Kansas State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Kansas State Offense | Texas A&M Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 105.3 | 51 | 99.6 | 63 | Kansas State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 54.9 | 7 | 47.4 | 61 | Kansas State big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 0.96 | 123 | 1.11 | 73 | Texas A&M big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.29 | 24 | 2.88 | 54 | Kansas State |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.2% | 72 | 6.3% | 33 | Texas A&M |
Passing Downs
| Kansas State Offense | Texas A&M Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 95.1 | 88 | 115.7 | 27 | Texas A&M big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.6 | 37 | 30.0 | 51 | Kansas State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.62 | 106 | 1.65 | 9 | Texas A&M big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.52 | 38 | 2.68 | 23 | Texas A&M |
| PD Sack Rate | 9% | 86 | 9.4% | 26 | Texas A&M big |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
