Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) vs. Colorado Buffaloes (10-3)
December 29, 2016 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Colorado -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Colorado (32.5-28.5)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Oklahoma State | Colorado | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 29 | 17 | ||
| Category | Oklahoma State offense | Colorado defense | Colorado offense | Oklahoma State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.49 (14) | 4.53 (8) | 5.44 (73) | 5.96 (103) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 495.8 (17) | 329.4 (17) | 452.5 (39) | 466.9 (114) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.80 (23) | 1.45 (11) | 2.36 (55) | 2.03 (53) |
| Category | Oklahoma State offense | Colorado defense | Colorado offense | Oklahoma State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 39.1 (13) | 18.7 (11) | 33.2 (43) | 30.9 (81) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 102.7 (65) | 114.1 (25) | 99.8 (77) | 96.7 (77) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 113.8 (32) | 131.8 (6) | 120.7 (20) | 96.6 (78) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 110.1 (37) | 118.4 (15) | 107.1 (46) | 92.8 (100) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 110.1 (46) | 136.4 (8) | 113.4 (37) | 116.7 (25) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.8 (27) | 131.3 (11) | 125.3 (21) | 102.1 (57) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 110.1 (46) | 132.9 (9) | 114.2 (37) | 94.5 (88) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 102.7 (57) | 118.0 (18) | 92.1 (100) | 103.8 (50) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 111.8 (28) | 131.9 (3) | 82.9 (121) | 107.7 (37) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Oklahoma State
- Field Position (No. 1 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
- Field Position (No. 16 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 26 defense vs. No. 69 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 27 defense vs. No. 69 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 43 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
Colorado
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 17 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 70 offense)
- Q2 S&P+ (No. 10 vs. No. 74 )
- Passing S&P+ (No. 20 offense vs. No. 78 defense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 46 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Oklahoma State offense | Colorado defense | Colorado offense | Oklahoma State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.39 (19) | 1.27 (77) | 1.22 (86) | 1.29 (87) |
| EFFICIENCY | 45.7% (25) | 35.7% (15) | 43.8% (48) | 44.1% (84) |
| FIELD POSITION | 32.8 (16) | 30.8 (95) | 29.0 (85) | 24.0 (1) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.9 (32) | 3.5 (9) | 4.9 (31) | 4.7 (90) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Oklahoma State 6.94 (12) Colorado 8.79 (8) |
ACTUAL Oklahoma State 10 (9) Colorado 7 (20) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Oklahoma State offense | Colorado offense |
| Adj. Pace | 0.9 (56) | 8.9 (7) |
| Plays per game | 76.4 (42) | 83.2 (9) |
| Possessions per game | 13.8 (26) | 13.9 (23) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 51.9% (105) | 63.7% (41) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.7% (65) | 28.0% (104) |
| % of solo tackles | 82.7% (12) | 80.1% (22) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Oklahoma State defense | Colorado defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 60.9% (58) | 55.4% (107) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.1% (75) | 34.0% (64) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 16.0% (57) | 18.5% (22) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.8% (31) | 8.2% (81) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 5.2% (104) | 10.0% (1) |
| PD to INC | 35.5% (41) | 37.4% (23) |
When Oklahoma State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Oklahoma State Offense | Colorado Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 110.1 | 37 | 118.4 | 15 | Colorado |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.5 | 33 | 42.1 | 22 | Colorado |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.24 | 20 | 1.17 | 68 | Oklahoma State |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.96 | 72 | 3.45 | 119 | Oklahoma State |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.3% | 75 | 6% | 41 | Colorado |
Passing Downs
| Oklahoma State Offense | Colorado Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 110.1 | 46 | 136.4 | 8 | Colorado |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 35.3 | 24 | 23.3 | 9 | Colorado |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.85 | 34 | 1.81 | 101 | Oklahoma State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.57 | 37 | 3.07 | 48 | Oklahoma State |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.5% | 77 | 7.8% | 66 | Colorado |
When Colorado has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Colorado Offense | Oklahoma State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 107.1 | 46 | 92.8 | 100 | Colorado big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.6 | 51 | 50.7 | 106 | Colorado big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 87 | 1.11 | 94 | |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.11 | 50 | 3.02 | 71 | Colorado |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.2% | 72 | 4.4% | 76 | |
Passing Downs
| Colorado Offense | Oklahoma State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 113.4 | 37 | 116.7 | 25 | Oklahoma State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.1 | 44 | 28.0 | 31 | Oklahoma State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.70 | 79 | 1.84 | 93 | Colorado |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.28 | 71 | 3.20 | 62 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.1% | 69 | 9.4% | 26 | Oklahoma State |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
