LSU Tigers (7-4) vs. Louisville Cardinals (9-3)
December 31, 2016 ( 11:00 AM ET, ABC )
Spread: LSU -3
S&P+ Projection: LSU (28.4-28.1)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | LSU | Louisville | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 5 | 7 | ||
| Category | LSU offense | Louisville defense | Louisville offense | LSU defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.63 (12) | 4.49 (7) | 7.10 (4) | 4.66 (17) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 425.3 (58) | 320.3 (13) | 551.4 (2) | 324.3 (14) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.36 (56) | 1.54 (15) | 3.09 (15) | 1.31 (6) |
| Category | LSU offense | Louisville defense | Louisville offense | LSU defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 36.3 (24) | 19.9 (15) | 42.2 (2) | 14.7 (4) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 131.5 (5) | 117.7 (19) | 154.3 (1) | 127.6 (9) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 112.0 (38) | 99.1 (66) | 117.5 (24) | 145.8 (3) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 121.2 (12) | 107.3 (38) | 133.2 (1) | 130.5 (4) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 120.3 (20) | 110.7 (35) | 128.4 (12) | 152.0 (6) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 118.7 (30) | 135.2 (8) | 142.3 (2) | 150.8 (5) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 118.0 (27) | 100.5 (68) | 123.0 (11) | 148.5 (5) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 138.5 (4) | 126.6 (9) | 129.7 (11) | 138.7 (6) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 120.9 (7) | 109.8 (31) | 136.2 (3) | 93.0 (91) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
LSU
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 9 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 10 defense vs. No. 78 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 63 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 49 defense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 46 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
Louisville
- Run Stuffs (No. 14 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 5 defense vs. No. 56 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 3 offense vs. No. 51 defense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 42 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 30 )
Five Factors
| Category | LSU offense | Louisville defense | Louisville offense | LSU defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.40 (14) | 1.26 (72) | 1.44 (7) | 1.22 (39) |
| EFFICIENCY | 44.3% (41) | 36.4% (17) | 51.1% (6) | 32.9% (3) |
| FIELD POSITION | 27.7 (114) | 30.2 (88) | 32.3 (21) | 27.4 (27) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (49) | 4.1 (36) | 5.1 (16) | 3.5 (7) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: LSU 5.28 (23) Louisville -4.36 (102) |
ACTUAL LSU 0 (67) Louisville -7 (108) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | LSU offense | Louisville offense |
| Adj. Pace | -8.5 (124) | 2.7 (38) |
| Plays per game | 64.2 (124) | 77.7 (34) |
| Possessions per game | 12.0 (118) | 14.7 (4) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 65.5% (34) | 55.7% (91) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 32.8% (74) | 33.1% (71) |
| % of solo tackles | 54.6% (127) | 77.5% (38) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | LSU defense | Louisville defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 62.9% (39) | 57.3% (89) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 34.2% (61) | 37.9% (31) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 18.3% (23) | 18.1% (26) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 9.6% (52) | 11.3% (22) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.5% (10) | 6.8% (44) |
| PD to INC | 37.9% (21) | 30.5% (96) |
When LSU has the ball…
Standard Downs
| LSU Offense | Louisville Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 121.2 | 12 | 107.3 | 38 | LSU |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.7 | 49 | 41.0 | 14 | Louisville |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.29 | 10 | 1.06 | 61 | LSU big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.19 | 35 | 2.37 | 11 | Louisville |
| SD Sack Rate | 4.3% | 57 | 5.4% | 53 | |
Passing Downs
| LSU Offense | Louisville Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 120.3 | 20 | 110.7 | 35 | LSU |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.4 | 32 | 28.6 | 38 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.73 | 68 | 1.79 | 36 | Louisville |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.82 | 19 | 3.09 | 50 | LSU |
| PD Sack Rate | 9.1% | 87 | 8.7% | 42 | Louisville |
When Louisville has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Louisville Offense | LSU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 133.2 | 1 | 130.5 | 4 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 56.3 | 3 | 38.6 | 4 | |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.38 | 2 | 1.10 | 42 | Louisville |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.71 | 1 | 2.77 | 37 | Louisville |
| SD Sack Rate | 8.2% | 119 | 8.8% | 9 | LSU big |
Passing Downs
| Louisville Offense | LSU Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 128.4 | 12 | 152.0 | 6 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 37.7 | 13 | 21.4 | 4 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.67 | 91 | 1.66 | 87 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.37 | 56 | 3.56 | 99 | Louisville |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.7% | 63 | 8.5% | 46 | LSU |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
