Western Michigan Broncos (13-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (10-3)
January 02, 2017 ( 1:00 PM ET, ESPN )
Spread: Wisconsin -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Wisconsin (32.2-24.3)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Western Michigan | Wisconsin | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 36 | 16 | ||
| Category | Western Michigan offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Western Michigan defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.47 (15) | 4.76 (20) | 5.23 (87) | 5.51 (68) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 490.5 (18) | 304.7 (6) | 386.8 (85) | 347.7 (24) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.82 (1) | 1.24 (4) | 2.33 (57) | 1.65 (25) |
| Category | Western Michigan offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Western Michigan defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 37.3 (22) | 15.3 (5) | 30.8 (57) | 29.6 (68) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 110.5 (36) | 123.1 (16) | 107.9 (44) | 92.8 (94) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 134.4 (5) | 119.7 (16) | 128.6 (10) | 99.8 (62) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 119.6 (13) | 119.3 (12) | 113.9 (25) | 96.0 (83) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 110.7 (44) | 122.6 (18) | 119.2 (24) | 99.1 (73) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 119.2 (29) | 126.1 (14) | 129.6 (15) | 93.7 (91) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 120.1 (22) | 115.8 (24) | 120.7 (20) | 93.9 (90) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 129.2 (12) | 120.7 (16) | 107.6 (47) | 98.6 (69) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 109.8 (34) | 127.0 (7) | 108.1 (43) | 99.2 (66) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Western Michigan
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 29 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 39 defense vs. No. 62 offense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 9 offense vs. No. 30 defense)
- Field Position (No. 3 defense vs. No. 19 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 11 offense vs. No. 23 defense)
Wisconsin
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 119 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 23 offense vs. No. 106 defense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 44 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 13 offense vs. No. 86 defense)
Five Factors
| Category | Western Michigan offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Western Michigan defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.27 (63) | 1.18 (27) | 1.16 (116) | 1.25 (59) |
| EFFICIENCY | 51.7% (5) | 36.4% (17) | 43.5% (52) | 40.3% (44) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.6 (42) | 27.2 (21) | 32.5 (19) | 25.4 (3) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.3 (7) | 3.5 (6) | 4.3 (86) | 4.5 (68) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN | EXPECTED: Western Michigan 5.06 (26) Wisconsin 8.58 (10) |
ACTUAL Western Michigan 19 (2) Wisconsin 11 (6) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Western Michigan offense | Wisconsin offense |
| Adj. Pace | 3.4 (28) | 1.9 (47) |
| Plays per game | 75.8 (48) | 74.0 (59) |
| Possessions per game | 11.4 (125) | 12.3 (105) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 67.5% (24) | 73.8% (9) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 36.3% (41) | 33.8% (64) |
| % of solo tackles | 71.7% (92) | 71.7% (91) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Western Michigan defense | Wisconsin defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 56.4% (98) | 57.9% (82) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 29.7% (103) | 25.0% (124) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 17.0% (37) | 19.5% (11) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.7% (34) | 10.7% (32) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.1% (68) | 8.5% (12) |
| PD to INC | 31.6% (82) | 38.5% (14) |
When Western Michigan has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Western Michigan Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 119.6 | 13 | 119.3 | 12 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 56.8 | 2 | 42.1 | 21 | Western Michigan |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.20 | 34 | 1.12 | 10 | Wisconsin |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.36 | 14 | 2.56 | 20 | |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.3% | 29 | 3.7% | 96 | Western Michigan big |
Passing Downs
| Western Michigan Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 110.7 | 44 | 122.6 | 18 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.8 | 16 | 25.4 | 15 | |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.59 | 111 | 1.67 | 88 | Wisconsin |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.13 | 6 | 2.50 | 13 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.8% | 34 | 9% | 33 | |
When Wisconsin has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | Western Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 113.9 | 25 | 96.0 | 83 | Wisconsin big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.5 | 68 | 44.3 | 38 | Western Michigan |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.05 | 98 | 0.99 | 72 | Western Michigan |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.01 | 66 | 3.08 | 84 | Wisconsin |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.3% | 29 | 5.8% | 44 | Wisconsin |
Passing Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | Western Michigan Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 119.2 | 24 | 99.1 | 73 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.8 | 35 | 30.8 | 60 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.54 | 118 | 1.79 | 39 | Western Michigan big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 1.72 | 126 | 3.86 | 116 | Western Michigan |
| PD Sack Rate | 10.2% | 103 | 5% | 111 | |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
