The 7 biggest Michigan State-Michigan upsets since 1990 were all won by the Spartans

Michigan State just knocked off No. 7 Michigan, 14-10.

And the last time Michigan State visited Michigan before 2017, the Spartans pulled off one of the most improbable victories in college football history. Michigan State had a 0.2 percent chance of winning when the Wolverines snapped the ball for the final time in the game. One in 500. And yet it happened, propelling the Spartans to Mark Dantonio’s second Big Ten title and a Playoff berth.

While the 2015 game ended in shocking fashion, it was par for the course in the rivalry in one important respect: a favored Michigan team lost to its in-state rival. Jim Harbaugh’s team came in as a seven-point favorite, having shut out its last three opponents. It finished 6.5 points better, according to S&P+, but on one day in October, Michigan State pulled out a famous road victory.

Six times since 1986, the winning team was at least three points worse than its rival, according to S&P+. All six times, the team pulling the upset has been Michigan State.

On Saturday, Michigan State will be a 13-point underdog in Ann Arbor. What would victory look like for the Spartans? Probably something like these.

In a season that was “elite-level crazy,” Michigan had ascended to No. 1 by the time it played Michigan State on Oct. 13. Michigan State entered at 1-2-1, with the only win coming against Rutgers. None of that mattered as the teams played a tense game until Spartans cornerback Eddie Brown, uh, “defended” Desmond Howard into dropping the winning two-point conversion with six seconds remaining.

In the era before overtime, there was little more painful than to have to watch one’s highly ranked team attempt a two-point conversion with the game on the line. Nebraska lost the 1983 national title by going for two against Miami. Ditto for Florida State against the Canes in ‘87 and Miami against Notre Dame in ‘88. More recently, Michigan and Michigan State have tried to salvage disappointing seasons by going for two against Ohio State and failed both times. The lesson: never go for two with the game on the line.

Despite losing to Michigan State, 1990 Michigan would be part of a four-way tie with the Spartans, Illinois, and Iowa for the Big Ten title in 1990 (“see kids, in the days before conference championship games ...”), the Wolverines’ third of five straight crowns. That string would die in 1993, with the first nail in the coffin arriving in East Lansing.

Unlike the other games on this list, there was little drama. MSU jumped out to a lead, scoring 17 in the first 19 minutes and then playing great defense. If pressed for highlights in the clip above, enjoy some dreadful ball security from future Michigan running back coach Tyrone Wheatley at 1:55 and Dick Vermeil saying at 4:40 “they have a nice little play action pass out of this package” right before Jim Miller throws a touchdown on play action.

Nick Saban’s teams have generally been known for outstanding run defense. His scheme is designed to deny the opponent running lanes by using a two-gap philosophy and then teeing off on the passing game.

However, Saban’s first season in a major conference saw his Michigan State struggle mightily to stop ground games, allowing 212 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Michigan arrived in East Lansing with an excellent running game, led by Tim Biakabutuka running through holes paved by future NFL star and congressional representative Jon Runyan.

So what happened when the 7-1 Wolverines and 4-3-1 Spartans met? Naturally, Michigan ran wild on the ground and managed to lose in dramatic fashion. The Spartans rode wide receivers Derrick Mason and Muhsin Muhammad, who would combine for over 23,000 yards receiving in the NFL. They were catching passes in 1995 from Tony Banks, the first quarterback taken in the 1996 Draft and a six-year starter in the pros. (So how did Saban lose five games with this team?)

The Spartans won on a touchdown pass in the final minute. Earlier in the drive, Mason caught a ball that literally went through the hands of freshman Charles Woodson (7:46 of the clip above). The next time he played at Spartan Stadium, Woodson decided two hands are unnecessary.

The Spartan Bob game.

Michigan arrived at 6-1; Michigan State was 4-2. The Wolverines were favored and took a 24-20 lead into the final drive, which was when the fun began. In a march that featured a cavalcade of errors by both teams and the officials, the Spartans scored on the final play.

Should there have been a second to run that final play? Gary Danielson’s immediate reaction was “nice to have that home clock right there. Nice to have that home field advantage.” (See the clip at 3:30.) Bob Stehlin, the timekeeper, maintained on the 10th anniversary that various media outlets had timed the play and concluded that a fraction of a second remained.

The fallout was a factor in the Big Ten being the first conference to implement instant replay. So if your team is saved by a replay this weekend, thank Spartan Bob like an MSU fan. And if you find yourself frustrated at another replay delay, curse him like a Michigan fan.

Behold the majesty of Al Borges trying to call plays against Michigan State’s double A-gap blitz and failing miserably. Enjoy Michigan never changing its snap count, thereby allowing blitzers to time the snap and put Denard Robinson under immediate pressure. Read Brian Cook describe the 10th instance in which Pat Narduzzi unleashed this blitz with nary an adjustment, leading to the clinching interception:

By the time the pick six arrived Michigan had literally seen this blitz nine times and they still had no adjustment to their timing so that [Michigan center David] Molk would be able to see what was directly in front of him. This was well over half of MSU’s penetration and Michigan had no clue what to do with it even deep into the fourth quarter. They did not check out of a single play because they didn’t check at all. They didn’t run a freeze or attempt to change the timing of the snap after the second quarter.

Or if you prefer, note that Michigan State won despite being assessed six personal fouls as part of 124 yards in penalties. The Spartans could afford to be charitable in light of the fact that they allowed only 82 yards rushing, 151 fewer than Michigan’s average in its other 12 games in 2011. The next time Michigan would visit, Narduzzi’s defense would do even better, holding Michigan to -48 yards rushing.

We’ve covered this one. (MSU was the higher-ranked team, but home-field advantage was part of the reason UM was favored by a touchdown.)

All caught up.