Tuesday, the College Football Playoff committee released its penultimate rankings, giving us the most clear picture yet of where teams stand in the Playoff chase.
Ohio State could make the 2017 Playoff with a résumé similar to 2016 Penn State’s, and the reason is simple
These are two different seasons with different contexts.
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Perhaps the most controversial Playoff candidate, Ohio State, sits at No. 8. But at least two teams ahead of the Buckeyes have to lose during conference championship weekend, and the Buckeyes will improve their resume if they manage to beat No. 3 Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. Even with two losses, including a really ugly one at Iowa, it’s possible the Buckeyes vault over Alabama and grab the No. 4 seed.
What would a win over Wisconsin, and thus a Big Ten title, mean for Ohio State’s chances?
Playoff Committee chairman Kirby Hocutt said, “It would be an impressive win that Ohio State would add to their body of work. ... A conference championship being added to the resume is important when being compared to comparable teams.”
Every team that’s made the Playoff so far, except for one, has won its conference. That exception was 2016 Ohio State.
Why would a two-loss Big Ten champion make the Playoff this year, but not a two-loss Big Ten champion from last year?
The Nittany Lions beat Ohio State and knocked off Wisconsin in a memorable Big Ten Championship. But they didn’t make the Playoff, becoming the first Big Ten champ to miss the field. Not only that, but Ohio State — a team it beat and a team that didn’t even win it’s own division — earned a spot.
A major reason why Penn State didn’t get consideration? Two losses. Penn State had a close loss to Pitt and a blowout loss to Michigan.
This year, Ohio State has two losses and could earn a bid if it wins the Big Ten, even though another conference team (Wisconsin) would have only one loss.
If you look at everything a little more closely though, this makes sense.
In 2016, the Buckeyes had three wins over top-10 teams in the final Playoff rankings, a road win over No. 7 Oklahoma and wins over No. 6 Michigan and No. 8 Wisconsin (on the road). They also beat a Nebraska that won nine games by 59 points, a Tulsa that won 10 games by 45, and three other teams that went to bowl games.
Ohio State actually earned the No. 3 seed, over a one-loss Washington that won the Pac-12.
That means Penn State’s beef wasn’t actually with Ohio State, but rather No. 4 Washington and its light schedule.
Ohio State and Penn State could’ve both made it in, if UW’s resume had looked a little worse or if PSU had been more competitive against Michigan.
2016 Penn State had a conference championship and wins over two top-10 teams (Ohio State and Wisconsin), but wins over Iowa and Temple couldn’t compete with Ohio State’s win at Oklahoma.
A team with 2016 Penn State’s resume would be in the hunt for a Playoff spot in 2017. 2017 Ohio State would’ve had no shot in 2016.
At this point in the 2016 season, six teams had an S&P+ rating of plus-22.3 or higher (meaning they were measured as 22.3 points or better than the average FBS team), including all four eventual Playoff participants. Louisville was No. 7 at plus-21.4.
Your current No. 1 team for 2017, Ohio State, would have ranked eighth at plus-21.3. Wisconsin is almost literally the same team this year (plus-18.6) as last year (plus-19.2), only the Badgers were 10th in 2016. They’re third this time around.
There’s been a ton more chaos, allowing a team like Ohio State to even enter the conversation. We could have at least one team enter the Playoff with two losses, and it’s entirely possible nobody reaches bowl season undefeated.
2017 Ohio State picked a good year to have a strong, two-loss, Big Ten champion resume, and 2016 Penn State picked a bad one.
It’s risky to claim ironclad precedent for a process that’s only been around for three years and has changed committee personnel multiple times, but there is evidence to suggest that a conference title is pretty important to a Playoff resume, even if Alabama sneaks in this year without one. Quality wins are important too.
Maybe Ohio State gets blasted by Wisconsin this weekend and renders this entire conversation moot. Maybe Ohio State wins, but misses anyway, as the committee can’t look beyond its horrific loss at Iowa.
The 2017 Ohio State squad does have documented failures, but it isn’t without strengths.
The Buckeyes have two wins over top-16 squads (Penn State and Michigan State) and could pick up another over Wisconsin. They haven’t played many bowl teams (if the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin, they’ll have beaten only five and lost to two, a low mark by previous standards), but have clobbered nearly everybody. Eight of Ohio State’s 10 wins have come by more than three scores.
And for what it’s worth, the advanced stats really like them. Ohio State is No. 1 in S&P+ and No. 2 in ESPN’s FPI rankings.
Yep, it seems like every year that Ohio State makes it in at the last minute.
This could be the third time in four years that the Buckeyes did something unusual at the end to take a spot. In 2014, they jumped two Big 12 co-champs. In 2016, they were the first entrant to not win a conference. And in 2017, they’d be the first (or one of the two first) to make it in with two losses and the first with a three-score loss.
But the fact that the Buckeyes are being considered, perhaps more so than Penn State was last year, isn’t necessarily a sign of brand favoritism. It’s just how the season shook out.
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