The undefeated No. 10 Miami Hurricanes are slight favorites against 7-1, No. 13 Virginia Tech. On the surface, that makes sense, right? Well ...
The spread in Virginia Tech-Miami swung by almost a touchdown, and the undefeated home team is no longer an underdog
Kind of a lot going on here.
Photo by Michael Shroyer/Getty Images
Here’s Miami’s line history in this game at the Westgate, via Odds Shark:
The Hokies were the early-week favorites, and there are some decent reasons for that. Some statistical systems rate them as superior to the Canes (overall, it’s very close there).
The biggest reason: Miami’s undefeated start is a little deceptive.
Miami’s 7-0 start has not triggered much in the way of national title talk. The Canes are 10th in the first Playoff rankings, behind six one-loss teams. They are closer to UCF — the highest-rated Group of 5 team — than they are to No. 1. S&P+ would pick two-loss Auburn to beat Miami on a neutral field.
Part of the reason for Miami’s soft ranking is that it has a back-loaded schedule. With Florida State’s demise, Miami has not yet played a ranked team and only two — Toledo and Georgia Tech — with winning records.
The other part is that Miami has not beaten its opponents in an impressive fashion.
Miami enters the Virginia Tech game on a four-game streak in which it has won each time by one score. The Canes needed last-minute drives to beat Florida State and Georgia Tech, then had to hold onto late leads against Syracuse and North Carolina.
It seems as if most seasons feature a team with Miami’s profile — a team that wins a bunch of close games and provokes the perennial debate between the camps of “your record is all that matters” and “how you win has predictive value and should be a part of the rankings.”
So why the big swing toward the home team?
You never really know, unless you’re polling the big and late spenders, but you can take a couple guesses.
First, it is the home team. That alone is typically worth about three points, and if two teams project as virtually equal, location will usually tip the scales.
The Hokies also have a bit rougher injury situation at the moment, especially on offense.
Our Virginia Tech blog sees this game as a pick’-em, and our Miami blog just sees a chance for the Canes to step closer to their first-ever ACC title game.
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