We have another big piece of data with which we can forecast the 2017 college football season: what odds makers think. So let’s predict all of bowl season, based almost entirely on how win total over/unders see the regular season playing out.
2017 bowl projections: If Vegas is right, here’s your postseason and Playoff
Let’s use win totals to project how college football’s bowl season will line up.
These aren’t my projections, exactly. I used regular season win totals by South Point Sportsbook to create crude conference standings (even though win totals don’t distinguish between conference wins and non-con wins), then slotted teams accordingly. I gave eligibility to teams projected at 5.5 wins, just to have enough teams.
It gets messy in some points, since bowls do not claim teams strictly based on standings and because bowls usually try to avoid rematches and repeats, but I tried to stick more closely to the standings than I would in my own personal picks. I’ll do my own projections in August and then update them every week thereafter, getting emails the entire time about (1.) it being too early for anyone to care about them and (2.) people caring about what they disagree with.
Here we are:
2017 bowl projections, based on win total over/unders
Bowl | Team | Team | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Championship (Atlanta) | Rose winner vs. Sugar winner | ||
| Sugar (New Orleans) | #1 Ohio State | #4 USC | Playoff semifinals |
| Rose (Pasadena, CA) | #2 Alabama | #3 Oklahoma | Playoff semifinals |
| Peach (Atlanta) | Clemson | USF | CFP at-large |
| Orange (Miami) | Florida State | Penn State | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND |
| Fiesta (Glendale, AZ) | Auburn | Washington | CFP at-large |
| Cotton (Arlington, TX) | Louisville | Wisconsin | CFP at-large |
| Citrus (Orlando) | Virginia Tech | Georgia | Big Ten 2-4/ACC vs. SEC 2 |
| Outback (Tampa) | Michigan | LSU | Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Liberty (Memphis) | Baylor | Kentucky | Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| TaxSlayer (Jacksonville) | Pitt | Florida | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Arizona (Tucson) | UNLV | Georgia State | MWC vs. Sun Belt |
| Music City (Nashville) | Iowa | Arkansas | ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Sun (El Paso, TX) | Virginia | UCLA | ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5 |
| Belk (Charlotte) | NC State | Texas A&M | ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Alamo (San Antonio) | Texas | Stanford | Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2 |
| Camping World (Orlando) | Miami | Oklahoma State | ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3 |
| Military (Annapolis, MD) | North Carolina | Houston | ACC vs. AAC |
| Texas (Houston) | TCU | Tennessee | Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8 |
| Pinstripe (New York City) | Notre Dame | Nebraska | ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7 |
| Independence (Shreveport, LA) | Georgia Tech | Missouri | ACC vs. SEC |
| Cactus (Tempe, AZ) | Kansas State | Utah | Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7 |
| Heart of Dallas | West Virginia | Western Kentucky | Big 12 vs. C-USA |
| Quick Lane (Detroit, MI) | Iowa State | Indiana | ACC vs. Big Ten |
| Holiday (San Diego) | Northwestern | Oregon | Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3 |
| Foster Farms (Santa Clara, CA) | Minnesota | Colorado | Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4 |
| Hawaii (Honolulu) | Oregon State | Boise State | AAC vs. MWC |
| Dollar General (Mobile, AL) | WMU | Arkansas State | MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2 |
| Armed Forces (Fort Worth, TX) | Army | BYU | Army vs. Big Ten |
| Birmingham | UCF | Vanderbilt | AAC vs. SEC 9 |
| Potato (Boise, ID) | Toledo | Wyoming | MAC 2 vs. MWC |
| Bahamas (Nassau) | Southern Miss | Ohio | C-USA vs. MAC |
| St. Petersburg | Navy | MTSU | AAC vs. C-USA |
| Frisco (TX) | Tulsa | Colorado State | AAC vs. At-large |
| Boca Raton | Memphis | ODU | AAC vs. C-USA |
| Camellia (Montgomery, AL) | Miami (OH) | Troy | MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3 |
| New Mexico (Albuquerque) | UTSA | New Mexico | C-USA vs. MWC |
| Las Vegas | San Diego State | Washington State | MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 6 |
| Cure (Orlando) | Temple | Wake Forest | AAC vs. Sun Belt |
| New Orleans | Appalachian State | Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA |
In some spots, I used general schedule of strength as a tiebreaker of sorts. For example, I decided Ohio State would rank ahead of Bama here, since their numbers could mean OSU beats three 10-win teams, compared to Bama’s one, if everything plays out as envisioned. That’s a simplistic way to judge SOS, just like the Playoff committee’s way.
Texas gets maybe the biggest bump over the standings, due to Oklahoma State having been in the Alamo last year and UT being a huge, nearby team.
Highlights include a Bama-Oklahoma rematch minus Bob Stoops, Bret Bielema vs. his alma mater, just about the noisiest Pinstripe Bowl possible, Paul Johnson maybe getting a chance to beat a fifth different SEC East team in two years (this was one of the few I rigged in the name of a stupid storyline), and a Cactus Bowl that will finish in 59 minutes of real time somehow.
What do you think?
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