We’re in the midst of what’s supposed to be college football’s silly season. October usually leads up to November’s rush of firings, as athletic directors get more confirmation that their teams are bad and start to play a game of coaching musical chairs. Most years, 20-ish head coaches lose their jobs between mid-October and December.
3 reasons college football’s coaching carousel will likely have a slow 2018
The biggest jobs mostly have stability. The ones that don’t have big buyouts. And there aren’t off-the-charts candidates.
But in 2018, there’s been less industry chatter than usual about coach firings and hirings. Many jobs will surely change hands, but if it feels like fewer people are talking about specific gigs, or like there’s less noise about hot candidates, that’s because there is.
We really are going through a less interesting, less gossipy coaching change season. (So far.)
It’s happening for a few reasons.
1. None of the biggest programs have obvious lame ducks in charge.
Think about the jobs that have come open in the last two coaching cycles, at the end of the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Texas, Florida, FSU, LSU, UCLA, Oregon (twice!), Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Nebraska have all fired and hired new coaches in that span.
All of them have national brands and make big waves in coaching circles when their status is unclear, and they often force other programs to replace their head coaches.
Some of those teams endured sudden departures from coaches they didn’t expect to lose. For instance, Willie Taggart ditched Oregon after one year because FSU came open, after Jimbo Fisher ditched FSU for A&M because of festering issues between the two. Jim McElwain’s Florida tenure spiraled out of control really quickly, partially for non-football reasons.
But in more of those cases than not, the previous head coach was obviously on the way out. Texas firing Charlie Strong, LSU firing Les Miles, UCLA firing Jim Mora, Tennessee firing Butch Jones, and Nebraska firing Mike Riley? Mostly obvious ahead of time, so the rumor mill had time to get spinning.
There are few similar situations this year, at least for now. Among the sport’s biggest programs, maybe USC considers moving on from Clay Helton if the Trojans don’t finish strong. And maybe a unique candidate like Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly or Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley goes to the NFL. But there isn’t a truly major program clearly on the verge of firing its coach.
2. Some of the most obvious firing candidates have huge buyouts, making it less likely (if not impossible) that they’ll actually get fired.
Just a few examples:
- Auburn’s the easiest exception to what I just wrote above. But Gus Malzahn got a new contract at the end of 2017. Firing him this year would cost the school $32 million. Even though his team’s magical 2013 run to within a hair of a national title is now nothing but a distant memory, that buyout’s so big that a firing would be a huge effort. (Maybe Malzahn would leave on his own, but the recent team closest to hiring him away, Arkansas, already has a first-year coach, Chad Morris.)
- Speaking of Arkansas, Bobby Petrino’s Louisville is a disaster. But firing Petrino would likely cost the school around $14 million, thanks to an odd contract Louisville’s now ex-AD extended in 2016. The school’s on uncertain footing with its most famous megadonor, the racial slur-saying pizza magnate whose name recently came off Louisville’s football stadium. Petrino could still go, but his buyout could mean a little protection.
- North Carolina’s Larry Fedora might fit into this boat, too, with a reported buyout of more than $12 million at the end of the season. That seems like a likelier amount for the school to pay. If UNC does, it’s possible the Heels have the winter’s biggest opening — in football.
As hiring coaches has gotten exorbitantly more expensive, so has firing them.
3. There isn’t a scorching-hot coaching prospect in the mid-major conferences.
The last several years have had at least one each:
- At the end of 2015: Memphis’ Justin Fuente, who landed at Virginia Tech
- At the end of 2016: Houston’s Tom Herman, who went to Texas, and WMU’s P.J. Fleck, who went to Minnesota. Herman also fit the bill in 2015, a year before he left UH.
- At the end of 2017: UCF’s Scott Frost, who returned to his alma mater Nebraska. This year also featured an out-of-coaching Chip Kelly getting back into the business at UCLA.
(A related point: Some of the famous programs having the worst 2018 seasons are just starting rebuilds. Nebraska and UCLA both have many issues, but neither Frost nor Kelly is getting fired any time soon.)
There are quality candidates out there in 2018. Troy’s Neal Brown has taken the Trojans to unprecedented success and wins over LSU and Nebraska. North Texas’ Seth Littrell has been one of the country’s most successful and creative coaches. Memphis’ Mike Norvell’s won a lot. Strong’s done well in his latest act at USF. Lane Kiffin had a great 2017 at FAU and appeared to be a sure Power 5 coach for 2019, but has struggled in 2018. Utah State’s Matt Wells has made the Aggies a Mountain West force.
Appalachian State’s Scott Satterfield has built an excellent team, though he’s an App State lifer so far. A similar dynamic might exist with Boise State’s Bryan Harsin, who has deep roots.
There are qualified coordinators out there, too. Ohio State OC Ryan Day did well leading the Buckeyes while Urban Meyer was suspended. Clemson DC Brent Venables’ name has come up all over for years, though he’s shown little interest in going anywhere. And so on.
Ultimately, there’s no obvious superstar candidate who might compel a blue-blood to fire its head coach just for a shot.
The obvious caveat to all of this: It can change quickly.
If Auburn alone ponies up a big pile of cash, the whole picture changes. The carousel can go from zero to 60 in 3.5 weeks, depending on how various coaches do.
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