All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.
The best college football gambling picks for week 11, including Arkansas
The early betting lines often allow for the most value.
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Season record ATS: 124-98 (55.9%)
Last week I went 9-12. Losing weeks are no fun. But my season overall is still going great.
I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week. Most of my plays are made early in the week. Note that some of the lines below have since changed.
Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less. Bet Online and Bookmaker usually have the first odds up, around 3:30 each Sunday.
Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made.
Picks made Thursday, November 8
Lunchtime:
- TCU at West Virginia -11.5 (-105): TCU has had such injury problems in its secondary and real trouble scoring. I think West Virginia can get to 35+.
- North Carolina at Duke -10: North Carolina has all sorts of QB issues.
- Oklahoma State +21 (-105) at Oklahoma: I do believe Oklahoma is underrated, but Oklahoma State was clearly in a look-ahead spot last week and should be able to score on the Sooners.
- Texas -1.5 at Texas Tech: I don’t trust Texas Tech QB Jet Duffy. I’ll take the Longhorns at anything under a field goal.
- Georgia State +14 at Louisiana Lafayette: This is what my numbers say is a play. I think there is value here after losing at home to an underrated Texas Tech team.
- Louisiana Monroe at South Alabama +7: I liked Monroe last week, but laying a touchdown on the road, even with the short road trip, is too much.
Early morning:
- I am grabbing Florida State +17.5 upon the reports that Notre Dame QB Ian Book will miss the game against the Seminoles. I previously played the Irish on Sunday (see below). This is the one downside to playing early.
Picks made Monday, November 5
- Washington State -4.5 at Colorado: I trust Washington State’s defense to get enough stops to give Gardener Minshew the chance to build a multi-score win.
- North Texas -14 at Old Dominion: North Texas can score in a way that I just don’t think Old Dominion can.
Picks made Sunday, November 4
- Fresno State -1 (-115) at Boise State (Friday game): Boise did not look good in its win over BYU. Fresno keeps rolling.
- Louisville +21.5 at Syracuse (Friday game): There has to be a price for every team. Maybe Louisville has simply quit on the season and will get blown out. But this is such a big number.
- Florida State at Notre Dame -16: I thought this line would be in the 18-21 range, so I’d take anything below the key number of 17. I would want more than three touchdowns to take FSU. The weather should also be awful for FSU.
- Western Kentucky at FAU -16.5: The Owls hit their stride last week, and Western Kentucky is a mess.
- LSU at Arkansas +16.5: Talk about a potential hangover game for LSU. The Tigers are coming off an embarrassing performance, and Arkansas is off a bye.
- Illinois +20.5 at Nebraska: Illinois’ offense actually isn’t that bad when it has faced poor defenses, like that of Nebraska.
- Charlotte at Marshall -14 (-105): I backed Charlotte last week against Tennessee in a flat spot for the Volunteers, but think Marshall will simply score too much in this one.
- South Florida at Cincinnati -7 (-105) I watched Tulane play South Florida. USF is a mess. I’d lay 10 here, but not two touchdowns.
- Liberty +24.5 at Virginia: Virginia is just not a team that blows people out regularly. And this could be a flat spot in the middle of the ACC season.
- BYU at Massachusetts +13.5: BYU is off a crushing loss to Boise, and now must travel cross country.
- Kentucky -3 (-105) at Tennessee: Tennessee’s offense is putrid. Kentucky should shut it down.
- Mississippi +13 at Texas A&M: A&M’s offense has been suspect lately, and its secondary struggled against Auburn.
- Virginia Tech +4 at Pitt: Pitt has been on a tear lately, but I do not trust the Panthers to lay points.
Ongoing Futures/Props
I made 26 futures or prop bets which I published between May and August. My reasoning for making them can be found at the link. Updated analysis to come later in the week.
GOY lines (ATS)
The five games I played against the spread in the preseason ended up as advantage bets, but I went just 2-3 ($-130). I beat the closing line by 7.5, 4, 7, and 2, while I had one game which was off by 0.5. On average, the wagers I placed beat the closing line by four points, which was also what the median was. Though I lost on these wagers, I would absolutely place them again knowing what I know about where the closing lines ended up. These ATS games are included in my overall ATS record, above.
Season win totals
I currently project to come out ahead on my season win totals bets by a total of $180, with a projected ROI of ten percent.
I project my winners as Tennessee, Virginia, Boston College, UCLA, Stanford, and Virginia Tech.
Losers look to be Florida State, Pitt, Washington State, and Northwestern.
And Michigan State, Washington look too close to call.
Conference title bets
I took thee long(ish) shots here, and likely messed up by not hedging N.C. State and Georgia Tech both at at +6000 to win the ACC several weeks ago. USC at +485 to win the Pac-12 is on life support.
Playoff wagers
I placed four wagers on teams to make of miss the playoff. Alabama to miss the playoff looks like a sure loser, while Clemson to make looks very strong.
But it is my two longer shots which have me excited. Oklahoma at +425 and Notre Dame at +600 are both considerably ahead of their probabilities based on the ESPN Playoff Predictor. Getting one team in would be great. Two in would be a huge season of futures.
National Championship wagers
I took a stab with Washington at +2400, hoping to hedge. Womp womp.
See More:
