What can a history of 5-star QB transfers tell us about Shea Patterson at Michigan?

Michigan goes into 2018 returning almost the entire team from a unit that went 8-5 in a rebuilding season. The team returns 18 starters, is 13th in all of FBS in returning production, and is projected 10th nationally in S&P+. The team faces three primary questions:

The first cannot be resolved until we get a sense as to whether Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin will be as good as projected. The second is unresolved coming out of spring and involves a cast of characters. The third is expected to be resolved by Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson.

Patterson was the No. 4 player overall in 2016’s 247Sports Composite. He started three games as a true freshman, then the first seven as a sophomore before being felled by an injury. Everything seemed on course in terms of Patterson’s development, save for the minor details of NCAA sanctions and Hugh Freeze getting fired.

For a variety of reasons, blue-chip quarterbacks transfer at a high rate. The typical scenario is that a quarterback does not get the chance to start in his first couple years and then moves to a smaller program. The sport is littered with recent examples: Gunner Kiel (Notre Dame to Cincinnati), Max Browne (USC to Pitt), Garrett Gilbert (Texas to SMU), Kyle Allen (Texas A&M to Houston), and so on.

The instances of a five-star or high four-star QB having a clear path to playing time and still transferring are somewhat rare.

Here are six examples.

Stidham and Patterson were both blue-chip recruits who started three games as true freshmen before transferring after head coach firings.

Stidham had a successful sophomore season for Auburn, throwing for over 3,000 yards at 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt and leading the Tigers to a divisional crown. Two bad games in Atlanta should not obscure the fact that Stidham gave Auburn its best quarterback play since at least Nick Marshall. Auburn goes into 2018 No. 5 in the S&P+ projections.

Michigan fans would certainly take Stidham’s production, especially coming off of a season in which its quarterbacks combined for 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt.

Would Jim McElwain’s career at Florida have turned out differently if Grier had remained as the starter? Grier was off to a good start for Florida in 2015 as a redshirt freshman, throwing for 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt before he was suspended for PED usage and then transferred to West Virginia. McElwain never successfully replaced Grier, was fired after three years in Gainesville, and will now be coaching the wide receivers who will catch Patterson’s passes at Michigan.

Meanwhile, Grier had an excellent junior season in Morgantown, throwing for 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt in Dana Holgorsen’s iteration of the air raid.

Let’s go out on a limb and conclude Michigan fans would be satisfied with a Heisman Trophy. Newton did not play much in his two years at Florida because of the presence of Tim Tebow and then transferred for a variety of reasons. Would Urban Meyer still be in Gainesville instead of torturing the rest of the Big Ten if Newton had replaced Tim Tebow?

Mallett came to Michigan as a five-star from Texarkana, Texas. The plan was to be an understudy to fellow five-star Chad Henne for a year and then take over in 2008. Instead, Mallett was forced to play as a true freshmen because of Henne’s injuries. Mallett put up on 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt, completing only 43 percent of his passes, and then transferred when Rich Rodriguez brought his read option offense to Ann Arbor.

Mallett’s decision was a wise move, as he flourished in Bobby Petrino’s offense, throwing for 7,493 yards and 62 touchdowns on 9.7 adjusted yards per attempt and got drafted in the third round. The one meeting between Mallett and Newton produced 108 points and 1,036 yards of offense, although Mallett was knocked out of the game after throwing only 15 passes.

While Newton and Mallett were lighting up scoreboards in 2010, Mustain was mostly glued to the bench at USC. Mustain threw only 73 passes as a senior and produced a ghastly 4.4 adjusted yards per attempt. This was not how the college career of a prodigy from Springdale, Arkansas was supposed to play out.

Mustain was a casualty of Houston Nutt’s transition to the Wildhog offense and, well, Spencer, take it away:

After hiring Mustain’s high school coach to revolutionize the Arkansas offense, Nutt slowly reeled in Gus Malzahn, benching Mustain and marginalizing the spread attack until the Arkansas offense looked a lot like the run run punt attack Nutt has trademarked at Fayetteville. Nutt then loses Malzahn, may have lost Mustain, aggravated a parent revolt with his retrograde offensive moves, and went on a local talk radio show to slam a columnist who he believed wrote inaccurate things about him...which were, of course, mostly true.

Mustain left this telenovela for the calmer environs of Los Angeles, only to arrive for the end of Pete Carroll’s tenure at USC, an NCAA investigation, and a senior year being coached by in-over-his-head Lane Kiffin. Since college, Mustain has played in the Arena Football League, pitched in the Appalachian League, and is now a co-founder of an app that promises that you will “NeverWait for drinks again.”

Berlin was not a starter before he transferred, but for an understandable reason. Despite being the No. 1 quarterback in the class of 2000, Berlin was behind Rex Grossman who — before he became an NFL punch line — turned in one of the great passing seasons in recent history as a redshirt sophomore, before Ron Zook happened. Faced with being behind the 2001 SEC Player of the Year, Berlin transferred to Miami. There, Berlin had a poor junior season as Ken Dorsey’s replacement (albeit with one particularly memorable comeback in the Orange Bowl against Florida) before playing well as a senior, bumping his adjusted yards per attempt from 5.4 to 8.2. If Berlin is the template, then Michigan will get one poor season from Patterson and one good one.