Which preseason top-10 team will finish 2018 unranked, and vice versa?

Since 2002, at least one preseason AP top-10 team has finished unranked per year.

And in 24 of the last 25 seasons, an unranked preseason team has finished in the top 10.

So who do you have for each category in 2018?

Top 10 to unranked: This is tough, because historically, a team rated this high is going to need five losses (including a bowl) to finish unranked. I’ll go with Auburn because of the road schedule, with games at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama, in additional to playing Washington at a “neutral” site.

Unranked to top 10: Memphis is my pick. The Tigers return a ton and could go 10-2 in the regular season. It is obviously a risk to take a team from the Group of 5, but there aren’t many easy choices.

Top 10 to unranked: Baker Mayfield was responsible for at least three touchdowns in all but one regular season game last year and never averaged less than eight yards per pass. Baker Mayfield does not play for Oklahoma this season. So I’ll go with them, even though they’ll probably get me tweeted at by told-you-so Sooners.

Unranked to top 10: Arizona gets USC and Oregon at home, doesn’t play Stanford or Washington, and has a bunch of coin flip games in Bill Connelly’s projections. All they gotta do is let Khalil Tate be amazing and play a little better on defense.

Top 10 to unranked: Auburn has seven completely lose-able games on its schedule. I don’t really think this would happen, but I see no better bet.

Unranked to top 10: Give me South Carolina, on the hope that the Gamecocks beat Georgia at home and turn out to be way better than we think. Around 10 winnable games on that schedule, right?

Top 10 to unranked: I really don’t think any of the top 10 are going to finish unranked — they’re all deep and can coast to a top-25 ranking on reputation and eight wins — but if I have to wager, I’ll go on the one that hemorrhaged points and has to figure out how to get a new QB comfortable. Oklahoma loses a Heisman winner, yet has the same defensive coordinator responsible for giving up over 30 points six times in 2017. Oh, and they lose five starters on that defense!

Unranked to top 10: Six 10-win seasons in the last eight years, and you people somehow continue to disrespect Oklahoma State. Show some respect and maybe Mike Gundy will let you brush the fringe of his freshly trimmed mullet.

Top 10 to unranked: History proves the answer to these questions is always Auburn. But I have Auburn in the Playoff because I fear nothing. So lemme just suggest Penn State, which replaces Joe Moorhead, Saquon Barkley, Mike Gesicki, and much of its secondary, plus faces yet another tough schedule, drawing Wisconsin from the Big Ten West for the first time in the regular season.

Unranked to top 10: FAU has an excellent chance at 12-2 or so, but let’s say they upset a good UCF as well and finish 13-1.

Top 10 to unranked: I was a big believer that “The U” being back last season, and I fully expect the Canes to have some of that same magic in 2018. However, if I have to pick someone, I’ll go with Miami, which has questions at QB and elsewhere and is facing a very deep ACC, a tough opener against LSU, and a likely improved FSU. Even a good year for the Canes would likely include another blowout loss to Clemson in the ACC title game.

Unranked to top 10: FAU, and the Lane Kiffin hype train will have even more on board.

Top 10 to unranked: Seems we’ve got three candidates: Oklahoma, Miami, and Auburn. I’ll take Oklahoma, partly because of unanswered questions on defense, partly because they’re replacing a No. 1 pick at quarterback, and partly because of the parity in the Big 12. Is it likely the Sooners lose five games? No. But is it possible, if they’re unlucky? Yeah.

Unranked to top 10: I’m on record for thinking Arizona could be really good, but if you want a different team, I’ll go with division mates Utah. Manageable out-of-conference schedule, returning lots of interesting offensive pieces, and a winnable division. The Utes could mess around and win 10 games, if they can manufacture more explosiveness.

Top 10 to unranked: I was torn between Auburn and Miami, and I don’t think it’ll happen to either, but I’m going with the Tigers. They have a brutal schedule, and there are very few instances when they get to take a breath. Auburn plays three games away from home against preseason top-six teams. Uhhh, no thank you.

Unranked to top 10: Let’s go with ... South Carolina. The Gamecocks had the most votes in the “Also Receiving Votes” category anyway. Jake Bentley returns at quarterback, and they have a lot of back on offense from a team that pulled off five upsets last season. Being in the SEC East helps, and while they’ll probably get spanked by Georgia, they have a favorable schedule (until they get spanked by Clemson).

Who do you have for this?