Lance Leipold’s Buffalo should have a reset 2019 amid the breakthrough

By the end of 2018, Leipold had done most of what he had set out to do when he left comfortable surroundings for an unfamiliar venture.

At the age of 50, having just won his sixth Division III title in eight years at Wisconsin-Whitewater, Leipold had jumped to the MAC. He had spent two seasons stripping the Bulls down to the studs, but late in a rickety third season — lose two in a row, win three in a row, lose four in a row — things clicked. And it very much continued in year four.

After winning the last three games of 2017, Buffalo went 10-2 in the 2018 regular season, winning the MAC East and surging to a 29-10 lead over NIU in the conference title game. The Bulls had a sound defense — it peaked at 61st in Def. S&P+ — and an offense loaded with star power in the form of quarterback Tyree Jackson, receivers Anthony Johnson and K.J. Osborn, and All-MAC center James O’Hagan. All the foundation work, culture building, and talent identification was paying off.

After starting 10-23 in Buffalo, Leipold had won 13 of 15 and was on the doorstep of a conference title.

Now he has to realize the vision all over again. And for about 16 minutes longer.

The Bulls went into cruise control offensively after going up 19 points in the MAC Championship, and they couldn’t shift out of it. The Huskies scored the final 20 and won, 30-29. UB lost a fun Dollar General Bowl to Troy — no shame there — and then lost Johnson and O’Hagan to graduation, Jackson to early NFL draft declaration, and Osborn to grad transfer. (He’s a Miami Hurricane now.)

The defense, which had slipped to 83rd in Def. S&P+, retains some star power, but its two-deep got Thanos’d: three of the top five defensive linemen, two of three linebackers, and three of five defensive backs are all gone.

Leipold and Buffalo aren’t completely starting over. The culture is roughly in place. He’s still got a sturdy offensive line and exciting sophomores — running backs Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks, receiver Charlie Jones, linebacker James Patterson, cornerback Aapri Washington, etc.

But with the way 2018 ended, UB fans are probably clamoring for an immediate do-over and another MAC run, and it might take a season of repair work before that happens.

Life with Tyree Jackson was a roller coaster. His footwork betrayed him at times. His arm angle would slouch, and despite his 6’7 stature, he’d throw like he was about 6’2. He’d willingly scramble out of the pocket on a play-making quest.

Jackson would sometimes slip into a rut — he went a combined 19-for-45 for 268 yards, one touchdown, and two picks in blowout losses to Army and Ohio, and his completion rate was 51 percent or lower in six of 14 games.

Those quests would frequently pay off, though. Buffalo did rank 10th in Passing S&P+, after all. Jackson was behind center for UB’s first 10-win season, and his success will be a recruiting tool.

But you have to think coordinator Andy Kotelnicki isn’t absolutely dreading life without him, you know? Jackson’s replacement will almost certainly have lower upside, but if that’s offset by better stability, maybe that’s a trade Leipold and Kotelnicki are willing to make. That’s the positive spin, anyway.

Barring a grad transfer, UB will be choosing from among a foursome of big (but not 6’7) replacements:

Kotelnicki will have to choose between two juniors with knowledge of the system and two youngsters with big arms and upside. They tasked Jackson with starting as a redshirt freshman back in 2016, so it wouldn’t be unheard of if they went young.

Whoever they choose will have a sturdy run game to lean on.

After a slow start to Jarret Patterson’s freshman season (19 carries for 71 yards in his first three games) the former gray shirt (he committed in the 2017 class but didn’t enroll until January 2018), erupted for 104 yards and two scores against Rutgers and barely looked back. The 5’9, 195-pounder was nearly as important to UB’s division title run as Jackson — in the Bulls’ last seven wins of the year, he averaged 6.4 yards per carry and 111 yards per game and scored 11 touchdowns.

In their four losses: 3.8 yards per carry, 41 yards per game, two touchdowns.

Patterson split time with Kevin Marks, another true freshman who played the role of short-yardage back. Though neither was incredibly explosive, they combined for a 46 percent success rate.

The line loses O’Hagan but is scheduled to return five players a combined 87 career starts, including a pair of potentially dynamite tackles in Evin Ksiezarczyk and Kayode Awosika. This isn’t a huge line, but to my eye, the Bulls’ run game was built primarily around zone blocking (which requires less size) and one-cut-and-go running. It worked pretty well.

UB was a pretty run-heavy team in 2018 despite the star power in the passing game. The Bulls rushed 60 percent of the time on standard downs (right at the national average) and 42 percent on passing downs (well above). That was a stylistic choice, but it might be a necessity this time. In Johnson, Osborn, and George Rushing, they must replace a combined 132 receptions, 2,090 yards, and 22 touchdowns.

There are at least a couple of exciting options in the receiving corps. Tight end Tyler Mabry (27 catches, two touchdowns) was the most efficient target, and in Charlie Jones, UB might have another star. His route tree was similar to Johnson’s, and his per-target production was even better. He averaged 21.9 yards per catch over 18 receptions and played an explosive role in big games — he had three catches for 63 yards against Temple, one for 53 against Rutgers, two for 53 against Army, and two for 57 against Toledo.

Jones’ success might be tied to whether other receiving options emerge. There are plenty of candidates. Junior Antonio Nunn saw plenty of action, sophomore Rodney Scott III and incoming freshman Trevor Solomon-Wilson are former star recruits, and Leipold brought in two JUCOs in Daniel Lee and Larry Rembert Jr. If the run game is steady, and opponents have more than one WR to fear, Jones could have a huge year.

The Pattersons might become program-defining signees for UB. And they were grayshirts! While Jarret was helping to establish the Buffalo run game, his stockier brother James was leading the Bulls’ defense with nine tackles for loss and four forced fumbles from the linebacker position. His presence, alongside junior ends Taylor Riggins and Malcolm Koonce (combined: 10.5 TFLs, eight sacks), means the defense could still have a proven attacking presence.

Depth was a key for coordinator Brian Borland’s front seven last year, and there’s less of it this time. Linebacker Khalil Hodge is gone, as are pass-rush specialist Chuck Harris and leading interior lineman Justin Brandon. But Patterson, Riggins, Koonce, and other younger players like sophomore linebacker Tim Terry Jr., sophomore tackle Eddie Wilson, and junior linebacker Kadofi Wright are exciting.

Buffalo’s pass defense was aggressive and effective. The Bulls were fourth in passing marginal efficiency, 15th in completion rate allowed, and 25th in sack rate. The pass rush should still be strong, but losing corners Tatum Slack and Cameron Lewis (combined: five INTs, 10 breakups) hurts. Safeties Tyrone Hill and Joey Banks are still patrolling, and corner Aapri Washington looks like the real deal, but he’ll need a new dance partner.

The Bulls could stand to shore things up in run defense, too. Even with a ridiculously good run pursuer in Hodge, UB still ranked only 84th in rushing marginal efficiency. Guys like Patterson, Wright, and Wilson have loads of potential, but it might be difficult to improve without Hodge — the goal might be to just maintain last year’s numbers. If the pass defense slips, then, so will the overall numbers.

Buffalo posted both its best Off. S&P+ and Def. S&P+ ratings under Leipold in 2018. He has yet to figure out special teams. While up-and-down swings are semi-common, UB has established the wrong kind of consistency: 121st in Special Teams S&P+ in 2015, 121st in 2016, 123rd in 2017, 126th in 2018.

Charlie Jones provided some pop in the return game, but the legs were a problem. Buffalo ranked 122nd in punt efficiency, 107th in FG efficiency, and 101st in kickoff efficiency. The Bulls are in the market for a new place-kicker, and punter Evan Finegan was a freshman, so maybe there’s room for growth.

Just as any season with a new QB becomes a tossup, S&P+ sees all sorts of tossups on Buffalo’s schedule. Projected 97th overall, the Bulls are looking at four likely wins, one likely loss, and seven games projected within a touchdown.

So yeah, a favorable QB situation could flip a lot of games.

Whether Buffalo figures out its signal-caller right away or not, the Bulls are not starting from scratch. The floor was 2-10 when Jackson took over, and I don’t think it’s anywhere near that now. There’s just too much young talent, and it’s spread over just about every unit, from running back to receiver to the trenches to linebacker to the secondary.

Whether this is a “just eke out bowl eligibility” year or something more, we’ll probably know by the time conference play begins. The non-conference slate is a perfect set of tests: a nearly sure win against Robert Morris, a nearly sure loss against Penn State, and two relative tossups — a trip to Liberty and a visit from Temple. If the Bulls are 1-3, then 6-6 is the only goal. If they’re 3-1, they’re a MAC contender.

In 2020, they’ll probably be a MAC contender no matter what.

All 2019 preview data to date.