The MAC might have 2019 college football’s best conference race

At the end of each conference previews run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference’s balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. This is just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each of them.

Here’s a link to every team’s data, and each team’s name below is linked to its preview.

1. WMU
2. Toledo
3. Ohio
4. NIU
5. EMU

When I can’t decide on an order, I get a little bit excited. Each of these five teams has quite a bit going for it — and in the case of EMU, more than it has had since the 1980s — but there are definitive flaws for each, on both sides of the ball for most of them.

WMU has loads of experience, but a lot comes from a defense that was really bad. Toledo’s got a remodeled defensive line and a new receiving corps. Ohio has a green receiving corps and a lot of impressive talent to replace in the trenches. NIU has to replace the one guy it might not be capable of replacing on defense and hasn’t been good offensively for a couple of years. EMU’s rebuilding in the trenches and doesn’t quite have the skill corps depth.

But they’re all in it. And hell, the next two teams are basically a quarterback away from being in it, too.

6. Buffalo
7. Miami (Ohio)

If either team strikes gold in their search for a new starting QB, they could easily end up making a conference title run. They’re not very far from the pack up top.

8. Ball State
9. Kent State
10. CMU

The goal for Tier 3 is bowl eligibility, plain and simple. One of the three will probably make it, two if either Miami or Buffalo bombs at QB.

11. Akron
12. Bowling Green

Here’s how my statistical system has the MAC laid out for 2019, with zero equating to an average FBS team. (You can find full 2019 S&P+ projections here.)

Quite a bit of potential shift here.

Ohio and Toledo easily led the way in overall quality, and NIU somehow won the conference despite basically being a mid-tier team.

This year, the Huskies and WMU — who looked strong before losing quarterback Jon Wassink to injury (and now get him back) — have less to replace than last year’s top squads.

Also noteworthy: there are seven teams projected within a touchdown of the top team. Compare that to the ACC (no one within 16 points of Clemson), Big 12 (no one within 12 points of Oklahoma), or even G5 conferences like the MWC (two teams within seven points) or AAC (three). This is going to be a delightful race to follow.

Projected conference wins, with overall wins in parentheses.

The Rockets are projected as the third-best team in the division but get by far the best schedule, welcoming WMU, NIU, and EMU to Toledo and missing the East’s top two teams.

Four teams project within one conference win of each other in the West, and the East is nearly as tight, with three teams within 0.7 games. And hell, Kent State’s only one upset from muddying things up even further.

Hot damn, CMU’s offense was bad last year. Almost anything Jim McElwain tries will improve the Chippewas’ offense, simply via progression to the mean.

Sutton Smith led an intense, efficient NIU defense. We’ll see what the Huskies can do without Smith and with a new coaching staff.

Rourke combined 2,400 passing yards with 1,000 non-sack rushing yards. Even in an era of gaudy QB stats, that’s worth celebrating.

I might go with Danna here if the odds weren’t good that he’d be a Michigan Wolverine come fall, so instead, we’ll go with the guy who might finally be ready for huge attention after serving as Smith’s second fiddle at NIU. Basically every picture of Antonio Jones-Davis in our photo tool has him going horizontal like a fired missile. He’s fun.