UAB has a big challenge in 2019, but it’s overcome bigger

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Bill Clark has been employed by the University of Alabama-Birmingham for five years. In that time, the following has happened:

This will forever remain one of the strangest tales in college football’s strange history. Long an afterthought within the University of Alabama system, UAB football had to die to come back stronger.

Here’s where I want to deliver a change-of-direction, one-sentence paragraph like “And now the real work begins.” I’m not above such a thing, and it could be rather apt, for reasons I’ll discuss in a moment. But how in the world do you top “stayed in town to lead a zombie football program“ from a Bill Clark Degree of Difficulty standpoint? No matter what happens from here on out, it’s not that.

But yeah, this year’s going to be tricky. Clark heads into 2019 replacing his leading passer, his top four wideouts, four starting offensive linemen, all three starting defensive linemen, four of his top five linebackers, and four of his top seven defensive backs. When he was putting together his zombie roster, he predictably leaned heavily into the JUCO ranks — you would, too, because the only other option was to hit the ground with a bunch of redshirt freshmen.

Though he tried his best to balance classes and not field a lineup with 22 juniors in 2017, Clark still had a lot of juniors. They became seniors for last year’s C-USA title run, and now they’re gone. He dipped back into the JUCO well a bit again this year and probably will most years moving forward, but 2019’s the season in which the quest for roster balance takes center stage. It might be at least momentarily bumpy.

He found a bridge last year at quarterback, though. Yes, technically leading passer A.J. Erdely is gone — that wasn’t just a rhetorical flourish — but freshman Tyler Johnston III took over in the starting lineup midseason and topped Erdely’s production dramatically: 8.7 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) vs. 6.6, plus-9.4 percent marginal efficiency vs. minus-2.4. He wasn’t quite as explosive as Erdely with his legs, but he was more efficient (49 percent success rate vs. 47).

With Johnston and junior running back Spencer Brown (1,227 rushing yards) both returning, there are somewhat proven pieces to build around, and the defense does return a handful of last year’s stars: linebacker Fitzgerald Mofor, safety Kristopher Moll, cornerback Brontae Harris, etc.

Clark’s Blazers need receivers, and they are completely unproven from a depth perspective. Predictably, S&P+ projects UAB to fall from 75th to 106th because of low returning production numbers. But in the three seasons he’s been able to field a team, Clark has engineered major overachievement all three times. This year will be tricky, but Clark gets the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. And there’s nothing you can throw at him and his program that will be harder than what they’ve already overcome.

Clark got his 2014 offensive coordinator back last fall. Bryant Vincent, who left for South Alabama when the program disbanded, returned to Birmingham and engineered at least a little bit of improvement. The Blazers rose from 117th to 104th in Off. S&P+ and perhaps would have improved more with a full season of Johnston at the helm. This is a defense-first program and likely always will be with Clark in charge, but the offense had the makings of an identity last fall, combining run-first efficiency with big-play passing.

With Johnston, the pass didn’t have to play quite as complementary a role. He was 25-for-39 for 306 yards, two touchdowns, and two picks against a good Texas A&M defense late in the year, then torched an almost equally strong NIU defense to the tune of 17-for-29 for 373 yards, four scores, and one pick in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Of course, he achieved that with a bunch of receivers that won’t be suiting up this year. Xavier Ubosi, Andre Wilson, Collin Lisa, and Kailon Carter combined for 123 catches, 2,285 yards, and 16 touchdowns last year, then all departed. Leading tight end Donnie Lee is gone, too.

Only two returning wideouts caught passes in 2018; Kendall Parham and Austin Watkins combined for 21 catches and 279 yards. Parham matched the departed seniors from an efficiency standpoint, but the 5’10, 180-pound senior from Hattiesburg will be facing a lot more No. 1 cornerbacks this coming season.

Some former star recruits will have to step up. Junior Demetrius Davis and sophomore Kevin Davis were both three-star prospects once upon a time, and if he makes it to campus, so is JUCO transfer Markus Grossman. Sederian Copeland was one of Clark’s best zombie recruits and caught 11 balls in 2017 before missing last year with injury. So maybe there’s some upside to this new receiving corps. But the turnover is comprehensive, and the depth is unproven.

Vincent’s offense was pretty predictable last year — run on run downs (sixth in standard downs run rate), throw on throwing downs (92nd in passing downs run rate) — and at least the former part of that will probably remain in 2019. The Blazers might have an unproven passing game, but they do have a workhorse in Brown. The 220-pound junior doesn’t bring much explosiveness to the table, but UAB ranked 33rd in opportunity rate (percentage of non-sack carries gaining at least four yards), and he was a primary reason why.

For a change of pace, UAB’s also got Jonathan Haden again. The senior-to-be, a former Arizona back, also missed 2018 with injury, and while he’s the size of a slot receiver (5’7, 175), there’s size behind Brown on the depth chart, too, sophomores Lucious Stanley (6’0, 215) and Arkansas State transfer Larry Wooden (6’0, 210).

There might be decent depth at running back, but it’s hard to say the same about the line. Center Lee Defour — one of the two remaining 2014 Originals (along with kicker Nick Vogel) — is the only returning starter, and while three others saw spot starts (seniors Andrew Smith Jr. and Davide Galten, junior Greg Fecanin), all four departed starters were either first- or second-team all-conference. The bar is high. Clark signed two mammoth three-star JUCOs (Sidney Wells and Matthew Trehern) to try to stem the tide here.

David Reeves served as defensive line coach in 2014, then remained with Clark during UAB’s hiatus and took over as defensive coordinator when, you know, the Blazers had a defense to coordinate. After a mix-and-match 2017, UAB’s senior-heavy 2018 defense dominated. The Blazers surged to 45th in Def. S&P+, attacking you on both standard downs and passing downs.

This was an all-or-nothing, get-you-before-you-get-me kind of style, and it worked beautifully with 2018’s experienced personnel. There will almost certainly be a drop-off in 2019, but the size is yet to be determined.

We’ll start in the back, where there’s reason for optimism. Brontae Harris was one of Pro Football Focus’ 10 top-graded cornerbacks last season, combining four tackles for loss with 13 passes defensed, and nickel back Kristopher Moll (who might end up at ILB this year) was dynamite both near the line of scrimmage (7.5 TFLs) and further away (five passes defensed). The next two cornerbacks after Harris are gone, but sophomore Starling Thomas could be ready for a star turn. Former star recruit CD Daniels could also see more playing time.

That’s a good start. The safety position is tenuous enough beyond Moll that a couple of running backs (Jarrion Street and Trey Whitmore, who combined for 297 rushing yards in 2018) converted to DB, but between the former RBs and veterans like Dy’jonn Turner and former Indiana safety Will Dawkins, there are some non-freshman options.

Up front, UAB’s got lineman Garrett Marino, linebacker Fitzgerald Mofor, and who-the-heck-knows after that. Those seniors are the only front-seven returnees who made at least 12 tackles last season.

Clark added three JUCOs (including 355-pound behemoth Tony Fair) and USF transfer Mi’Cario Stanley and, in anticipation of this year’s turnover, attempted to use the new four-game redshirt rule to his benefit — both nose tackle Fish McWilliams and linebacker Jalen Rayam were given sporadic rotation time. As with the receiving corps, there is a mixture of new and old here, and it might work out, but UAB needs both new first- and second-stringers, which obviously calls depth into question.

You could make a decent case that UAB’s special teams is the most proven returning unit on the roster. The Blazers ranked 25th in Special Teams S&P+ last year, thanks in part to Nick Vogel’s automatic touchbacks on kickoffs and punter Kyle Greenwell’s high, mostly un-returnable punts.

Vogel was automatic inside of 40 yards (12-for-12, plus 51-for-52 on PATs), if very much not outside of 40 (3-for-12). The primary new face in this unit will be in returns, where someone has to replace the efficient Andre Wilson. I know of one freshman who’ll likely get a shot at the job.

Act III of Clark’s UAB tenure begins this fall. It won’t be a stupid as Act I or as incredibly redeeming as Act II, but it’s just as important. Recruiting is picking up, and the new stadium is on the horizon, and while Clark is allowed a few mulligans at this point, we’ll see if recent efforts to brace for 2019’s massive turnover pay off.

The schedule certainly won’t hurt. UAB has one of the cakiest slates you’ll ever see for an FBS team; the Blazers won’t play a single opponent projected higher than 101st in S&P+ until November, and that doesn’t even tell the whole story: after starting with Alabama State, they’ll play five of the 12 worst-projected FBS teams: Akron and South Alabama in non-conference play, then Rice, UTSA, and ODU in C-USA action.

The schedule gets tougher late, with trips to Tennessee, Southern Miss, and North Texas and a visit from Louisiana Tech. But even with a pessimistic No. 106 projection, S&P+ still gives the Blazers good odds of reaching another bowl. And if they overachieve, as Clark teams are wont to do, they won’t need many breaks to reach at least eight or nine wins.

If they pull that off during a massive overhaul season, just think of what they might accomplish when they’ve got some semblance of roster balance.

Going 8-4 or so during a rebuild would be an amazing story, but honestly, if UAB has done anything in the last five years, it’s normalize the word “amazing.” Everything that has happened since Clark came to town, both good and bad, has qualified for that adjective. And it’s been a lot more good than bad recently.

All 2019 preview data to date.