2019 Sun Belt power rankings: How do you rank anybody but App State No. 1?

At the end of each conference previews run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference’s balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. This is just how I would rank the teams after writing thousands of words about each of them. We have already completed the MAC and Conference USA.

Here’s a link to every team’s data, and each team’s name below is linked to its preview.

1. Appalachian State

The purpose of this power ranking exercise is for me to develop my own opinions instead of simply citing S&P+ projections. Those projections are good and are going to be more accurate than my opinions a good percentage of the time, but this way I go on the record with both.

Sometimes I can’t ignore what the numbers are telling me, though. With App State facing a coaching change, there is plenty of reason to believe the Mountaineers could fall back to the Sun Belt pack a bit in 2019. But they’re projected 31st in S&P+ ... and the next best team in the conference is projected 69th. Plus, that No. 69 team (Troy) is also facing a head coaching change. S&P+’s next team (No. 70 Arkansas State) returns its head coach but just lost most of its assistants.

Based purely on that gap, I’m giving the Mountaineers their own tier. Question marks? Plenty. But they start out ahead of the pack.

2. Troy
3. Georgia Southern
4. Arkansas State
5. UL-Lafayette

As a pure “get another game on TV in a pretty good ESPN slot” gambit, I don’t mind the Sun Belt instituting a conference title game despite having just 10 teams. It’s semi-pointless from a competition standpoint — with five-team divisions, you already play everyone in your division and almost everyone from the other — but whatever. Get your money.

Can I lobby for a rearranging of divisions, though? I realize Troy is a couple of hours east of Mobile, but for competition purposes, can we flip Troy and South Alabama?

Because as things stand, it’s possible that the three best teams in the conference are in the Sun Belt East. Last year, per S&P+, it was three of the top four, and because of an upset, the inaugural title game was No. 1 vs. No. 5. That’s not a great showcase.

6. ULM

I just don’t know what to do with ULM. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if any of the Tier 2 teams won the conference, but ULM winning it would surprise me. But I also like the Warhawks quite a bit more than any of the teams below them. So I guess they get a tier to themselves.

7. Texas State
8. Coastal Carolina
9. Georgia State
10. South Alabama

One of these four teams will make a solid run at bowl eligibility. Last year, Coastal came up just short. This year, Texas State brings back one of the more experienced two-deeps in the country, and if new coach Jake Spavital can figure out how to score some points while maintaining last year’s defensive prowess, the Bobcats might have the best shot.

Here’s how my statistical system has the Sun Belt laid out for 2019, with zero equating to an average FBS team. (You can find full 2019 S&P+ projections here.)

Scott Satterfield leaves behind an experienced, delightful two-deep. And again, the team closest to App State has the same coaching change issues and less experience.

The two teams projected to improve the most, by the way: Texas State and Georgia State. Both return most of last year’s production.

Projected conference wins, with overall wins in parentheses.

The first two conferences I previewed (the MAC and Conference USA) might have the tightest title races in FBS. The Sun Belt probably won’t. Arkansas State has a nearly two-game cushion in the West ...

... and only one team is within two games of App in the East.

Coaching changes, unexpected attrition, upsets, etc., could make either division race interesting. Plus, in these conferences, the race to six wins is often as or more intriguing. But the favorites are obvious, and that’s at least partially because of the unbalanced divisions. Troy vs. Arkansas State in the West? That would be a great race!

No offense really stood out last year as more efficient than the pack, but only a few were capable of making big plays.

The spread on defense, however, was dramatic. You had some downright strong units in App State, Troy, and Texas State, you had some successful bend-don’t-break attacks like Georgia Southern’s ... and you had three really, really bad defenses dragging down the averages.

I’m going to go out on a limb with this one. Technically, we won’t even know that Barker is going to be Troy’s starter in 2019 — after his injury last year, Sawyer Smith took over and showed bouts of competence, too. But Barker was starting to hit a level you rarely see.

Against ULM, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State, Barker completed 44 of 53 passes (83 percent!) for 552 yards, five touchdowns, no picks, and a ridiculous 201.6 passer rating.

Expecting a full-season 200-plus rating is probably too much, but his upside is the highest in the conference, even higher than that of Evans or App State’s Zac Thomas.

This choice was much easier: pick the most active player from the best defense. Boom, done.