It’s been another busy offseason with a number of high-profile names switching teams in 2014. Some of those players are guys that will catch balls and score touchdowns (in this case, we will call these players “wide receivers”) and that should have a significant impact on your fantasy team next season.
Fantasy football 2014: A closer look at wide receivers that changed teams in free agency
How will a change of scenery change the outlook in fantasy for some notable players like Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and more?
Kevin C. Cox
Here is a closer look at the receivers that will be putting on new uniforms next season (new to them at least) and how those new team colors (and other factors) could effect their 2014 numbers.
2013 stats: 64 catches, 745 yards, four touchdowns, 62 percent catch rate, five drops, 15 missed tackles with Carolina Panthers
Smith was one of the longest tenured players in the NFL, having spent 13 seasons with Carolina before an ugly breakup that put him on the free agent market where he was quickly snatched up by the Ravens. I wouldn’t fret too much though, because almost all of the greats have finished their careers somewhere besides the place where they made a name for themselves.
Smith will always be a Panther ... well, always, except for right now.
He turns 35 in May and is coming off of a disappointing season, but this isn't the first time he's been written off. Pairing with the disaster known as Jimmy Clausen, Smith had just 554 yards in 2010, until he teamed up with Cam Newton the next year for 1,394 yards and seven touchdowns. At this point the separation may just be better for both parties, and now this Smith can team up with Torrey Smith to give Joe Flacco almost no excuse for another disappointing season.
Baltimore has been one of the most WR-desperate teams in the league since trading Anquan Boldin last year, with Marlon Brown finishing second in the team last year in yards (524), though his seven receiving touchdowns led the team.
However, 10.7 yards per catch won't get it done for a number two. The Ravens also re-signed Jacoby Jones, but he'll also never be more than a role player on offense and a star on special teams. (Though maybe Smith can teach him something about making that transition, finally.)
Smith will no longer be relied upon to be “the guy” on an offense. He’s a complement to Torrey and a dangerous weapon that could take it to the house at any moment. His 62 percent catch rate would be the best on last year’s team by far (Torrey was barely over 50-percent) and he may still see 100 targets.
That could put Smith in line for: 65 catches, 900 yards, and five touchdowns
Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots
2013 stats: 49 catches, 627 yards, five touchdowns, 58 percent catch rate, eight drops, four missed tackles with Carolina Panthers
The biggest transformation of a wide receiver unit in 2014 will be in Carolina, where they need to replace just about everybody, including LaFell. (And Ted Ginn and Domenik Hixon.) It just so happens that LaFell signed with New England, the team that had the biggest transformation at receiver last season, with mixed results.
That's the reason that the Patriots had to sign LaFell, and also re-signed Julian Edelman to maintain some stability. Despite the fact that New England already seems to have a "logjam" at the position with Danny Amendola, Edelman, Aaron Dobson, and Kenbrell Thompkins, it's clear that Bill Belichick doesn't quite trust that unit to perform up to his standards next year.
LaFell should be more than just “insurance” in that regard, because frankly Amendola can’t be trusted at all to remain healthy, and Edelman is simply very limited in what he can do. The dream scenario would’ve had Thompkins and Dobson taking over as promising rookies last year, but Thompkins was well under 50 percent on his catch rate and Dobson hasn’t progressed as quickly as hoped.
While LaFell hasn’t lived up to some of the pre-season hype he’s received over the last few years, he’s also never worked with a passer like Tom Brady. Given a permanent role in the starting rotation opposite of Amendola, it’s possible that LaFell could indeed be a breakout star of 2014. He could also disappoint, and it’s hard to ignore that he’s been unable to progress past where he was in his second season.
Maybe this is finally it. Or not.
That could put LaFell in line for: 55 catches, 800 yards, six touchdowns, with potential for a lot more.
2013 stats: 64 catches, 898 yards, five touchdowns, 68.8 percent catch rate, three dropped passes, 21 missed tackles with Seattle Seahawks
I recently heard someone call Tate the most "overrated" receiver on the market. That's fine though, you can't expect everyone to look at anything other than the most shallow numbers and observations. It's especially interesting considering how Seattle's receivers were called a "mediocre" "appetizer" before winning Super Bowl XLVIII.
Funny how that works.
Tate didn’t have a great playoff performance or Super Bowl, but over the last two years he has performed as one of the most underrated receivers in the league. He was the league leader in missed/broken tackles among receivers last season and his 7.9 yards-after-catch per catch was first for any player with at least 20 targets. Pro Football Focus also graded him as the No. 1 punt returner in the NFL.
The Seahawks don't run a passing offense, and that's why Tate's numbers seem "deflated" as compared to what you might expect from a top receiver, but he was actually paid to be a number two receiver anyway. His dollar amount is comparable to Danny Amendola, but he has none of the injury history of Amendola. He was paid more than Riley Cooper because he's more talented than Riley Cooper.
Tate now goes to one of the most prolific passing offenses in the NFL and he’ll play opposite of the top receiver in the game. If he can catch 65 percent of his targets and his targets go up to the 150 range, he’ll approach 100 catches. If he continues to be elusive in the open field, he’ll maintain an average of 13-15 yards per catch.
Nothing other than “Lions gonna Lions” should keep Tate from having a bigger season than he had a year ago.
That could put Tate in line for: 85 catches, 1,100 yards, six touchdowns, potential punt return gains
2013 stats: 87 catches, 1,288 yards, 11 touchdowns, 64.4 percent catch rate, eight drops, eight missed tackles with Denver Broncos
Over the last two seasons, Decker put up 2,352 yards and 24 touchdowns, whereas Tate had 1,586 yards and 12 touchdowns. So why was Decker only paid slightly more than Tate in his deal with New York?
Because clearly teams are looking more at the hidden numbers and lesser-talked-about numbers than they ever have before. We just can't ignore the fact that one played with Russell Wilson and his low number of attempts and the other played for Peyton Manning.
In Decker's first two NFL seasons with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow, he had 718 yards. Do we really know yet if Geno Smith (or some other guy) is actually better than Orton? (Whoever it is, he's probably better than Tebow though.)
It would be rather surprising to see Decker match his numbers from last season, when he had 137 targets. If he gets that many targets in 2014, it'll be because the passes are forced his way due to the fact that he's currently slated to play opposite of Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley instead of Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker. Decker also had two fumbles and eight dropped passes last season.
He can’t afford that many mistakes in New York, otherwise he’ll soon find himself back on the free agent market. And likely hoping that he can play with someone like Manning again.
That could put Decker in line for: 65 catches, 900 yards, nine touchdowns
Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos
2013 stats: 67 catches, 740 yards, six touchdowns, 60 percent catch rate, five drops, 15 missed tackles with Pittsburgh Steelers
On the other side of the spectrum, Decker’s production loss should be Sanders’ gain. On often-overlooked receiver on the Steelers, Sanders was the full-time starter opposite of Antonio Bryant and he played well with what he was given. His three-year, $15 million deal with Denver could end up being a steal for the Broncos.
Let’s be honest: If you’re not completely inept at receiver, this is the first team you should want to play for.
Decker only had about 25 more targets than Sanders last season, but if Sanders can up his catch rate to 65 percent and become the full-timer with Welker and Thomas, he should find himself getting over the 1,000-yard mark in each of the next two years.
That should put Sanders in line for: 84 catches, 1,110 yards, seven touchdowns
2013 stats: 56 catches, 896 yards, zero touchdowns, 57.1 percent catch rate, seven drops, 11 missed tackles
It feels weird to even write about a player. Especially a receiver. Especially a starting receiver for 15 games last year. Especially for Hakeem Nicks:
ZERO touchdowns.
That’s what he produced last year though, and that’s why he’s being paid up to $5.5 million on just a one-year deal with Indy. But it’s what he could possibly do next season that’s precisely why he’s just as willing to give himself an opportunity to earn a long-term deal in 2015.
Nicks has played fairly horribly over the last two years, dealt with some injuries, but over his first three seasons he was on the verge of breaking out as an All-Pro receiver. He had 2,244 yard and 18 touchdowns from 2010-2011 and was a top-10 fantasy receiver over that time as well.
He'll now team up with the ever-rising star known as T.Y. Hilton and the hoping-to-return-to-form Reggie Wayne in giving Andrew Luck a much-improved receiving corps. By replacing Darrius Heyward-Bey in the offense and also seeing Dwayne Allen return from injury, Luck should certainly get better in 2014, but how much of that will benefit Nicks?
After all, he has to share targets with all of those guys. That’s sort of a different situation than what he had in New York, but then again... is that really a bad thing?
That could put Nicks in line for: 55 catches, 850 yards, six touchdowns
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