We’re finally here. All the waiting, researching and planning, it’s about to come into play. Fantasy football is back.
Fantasy football start/sit advice for Week 1: Considering some sleepers
It’s time to set your fantasy football lineup for Week 1. Here are some sleepers to consider for Sunday.
Stacy Revere
If you’re already pouring over statistics debating who to start or if you’re looking for some deeper plays for Week 1, take a look at the list below to see who might be worth a flier, and which players should be avoided to start the season. Keep in mind these players aren’t going to be at the top of the weekly rankings. You can find those guys on your own.
Start
QB Geno Smith, vs. Raiders
Starting Smith probably isn’t ideal for the first game of the season, but if you waited late in drafts for a quarterback and don’t like your matchup this week, the second-year starter is worth taking a shot with.
Smith averaged 20 fantasy points per game over the final four weeks of 2013. He's been constantly praised this preseason for his improvement. He has new weapons in Eric Decker, Chris Johnson and Jace Amaro. The Raiders defense underwent a facelift in the offseason, but this group is still one few are confident about. Smith should do well at home against one of the league's lesser defenses.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, vs. Redskins
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Fitzpatrick was the fourth-best fantasy quarterback from Weeks 10-16 last season, only ranking behind Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Nick Foles. That's a valuable statement to keep in mind if you're looking for a flier at quarterback.
Washington allowed the most passing touchdowns in 2013. Now in Houston with Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Arian Foster to assist him, Fitzpatrick has an opportunity to at least succeed against the weaker defenses. Week 1 is a good place to start.
RB Mark Ingram, at Falcons
Fantasy Football
The Saints averaged 35 more rushing yards per game on the road last season. That bodes well for Ingram as he goes up against a team that was laughably bad against the run in 2013.
Atlanta did its best to address its appalling run defense over the offseason by bulking up on the defensive line. However, this is still a work in progress. Ingram rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries in four preseason games. This is a contract year, possibly his last with New Orleans, and he looks determined to make the most of it. Ingram should find plenty of room to run in Atlanta.
RB Fred Jackson, at Bears
Jackson was targeted 15 times in the Bills passing game this preseason. He almost played as many snaps at C.J. Spiller (one fewer snap in fact), and he figures to be a significant part of Buffalo's offense once again.
The Bears were the worst team against the run in 2013. Again, it’s a new year with new players on the defensive side, but it’s still a great matchup for the Bills rushing attack. Jackson will be even more valuable for PPR owners.
WR Markus Wheaton, vs. Browns
Antonio Brown is going to draw Joe Haden on Sunday. Do you know who will cover Wheaton? Buster Skrine and rookie corner Justin Gilbert. That should pique any fantasy owner's interest.
Wheaton is now operating as the X receiver, the role Mike Wallace used to play out of. Emmanuel Sanders managed 67 catches and six touchdowns out of that spot last year. Wheaton is in position to make an impact, and he gets an easy matchup to start the year.
WR Justin Hunter, at Chiefs
As Rich Hribar points out, Kansas City allowed 63 pass plays of over 20 yards, third most in the league, and 32 pass plays of over 30 yards, most in the NFL. Hunter sees plenty of deep balls, and this is the time for the Titans to take advantage of his downfield skills.
Hunter is still behind Kendall Wright and Nate Washington on the depth chart, but his talent is undeniable. He caught 18 passes last season. Four went for touchdowns. Five went for 34-plus yards. I'll gladly take a shot on Hunter against the Chiefs secondary.
TE Travis Kelce, vs. Titans
Dwayne Bowe is suspended for Week 1, and given the lack of depth or talent the Chiefs have at receiver, Sunday seems like a prime stage for Kelce to show off what he can do.
Recent reports suggest the Chiefs weren't as active in pursuing wide receivers in the offseason due to Kelce's receiving talent. Aside from Jamaal Charles, Alex Smith doesn't have much help for Week 1. I'm banking on Kelce to get a chance to prove himself.
Sit
QB Andy Dalton, at Ravens
In six career games against the Ravens, Dalton has thrown six touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His fantasy point per game average is four points lower when he plays Baltimore. Basically, this isn’t the matchup you’re looking for. The Ravens will continue to rank as one of the better pass defenses in the league.
QB Robert Griffin III, at Texans
Griffin last scored a rushing touchdown in his rookie season. That’s right, not a single one in 2013. Maybe another year removed from his brutal knee injury will help, but he doesn’t look like the same passer these days.
He attempted 20 passes in the preseason and didn’t score once, finishing with 141 yards and two picks. The Texans gave up the third-fewest passing yards per game last season. Even if you’re buying an early bounce-back from RG3, his opener isn’t setting him up to thrive.
RB Bernard Pierce, vs. Ravens
Fantasy Football
Baltimore’s run game completely fell apart last year. While new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak brings promise to fix those issues, Week 1 presents a tough matchup on the ground.
The Bengals only allowed two running backs to rush for 70-plus yards in 2013. The Ravens running backs struggled in both meetings with this group, and now Pierce is left to shoulder the starting workload. I'd rather play a wait-and-see approach with Pierce in this new offense.
RB Chris Johnson, vs. Raiders
Unlike his quarterback, I’m not excited about Johnson’s Week 1 debut with his new team. The Raiders allowed just one running back to eclipse 100 yards last season. With an impressive group up front, Oakland should continue to excel against the run.
Johnson is part of a committee backfield that will reportedly go with the hot hand each game. He's the starter for the Jets, but he's battling for touches against a good run defense. I'll pass.
WR Mike Wallace, vs. Patriots
Two words: Darrelle Revis. That should probably be all the convincing you need to avoid starting Wallace in Week 1. The Patriots are going to pair up their top corner with Wallace throughout the game. These two have only faced off twice in the past. In those two games, Wallace caught three passes. Excited for his bounce-back season? It would be wise to wait a week before putting your faith in him.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, at Buccaneers
If you think a rookie receiver playing in his first game of his NFL career on the road with a banged up quarterback throwing him the ball is a great opportunity, you're more optimistic than most. Benjamin is a massive target who will probably lead the Panthers in receiving (maybe aside from Greg Olsen) in 2014. His debut, however, won't be easy.
Cam Newton is dealing with a rib injury, and his status is uncertain for Week 1. Even if he does play, the Panthers are going up against a tough Bucs defensive front that will surely pressure him all day. Benjamin will also line up against Alterraun Verner, who held opposing quarterbacks to a 55.8 passer rating against in 2013.
TE Kyle Rudolph, at Rams
The Rams were incredibly stingy against tight ends last season. They only allowed an average of 5.7 points per game to the position throughout the year, the second-best mark among all teams.
Rudolph started 2014 as a major “sleeper” and gradually transformed into a popular commodity among owners. Norv Turner’s arrival in Minnesota should aid Rudolph’s progression, but we haven’t seen this new offense in action yet and Rudolph has a tough matchup.
