Leading 27-24 with just over two minutes remaining, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were mere moments away from closing out one of the more mind-boggling games of the afternoon. Having led 24-7 at the half, their advantage had vanquished due in part to Kirk Cousins and a lot of Jordan Reed. But have no fear, because having just driven the length of the field, the Bucs lined the ball up inside the opposing five-yard line with four opportunities to inevitably notch their third win of the season.
Fantasy football start/sit advice based on Week 8 NFL picks against the spread
Move over, DeAndre. Antonio Brown has returned to restore order in the world. That and more in Week 8 of our matchup previews using the Vegas lines.
Doug Martin run up the middle. Three-yard gain.
Martin off the right end. One yard.
Charles Sims around the left tackle. In vintage-Sims style, -2 yards.
And then, with one more down left to close out what appeared to be heading towards a disastrous ending on the road, Lovie Smith kicked a field goal. Tampa Bay led by six instead of three with just over two minutes remaining. And of course, rather than having sealed the assured victory with a 10-point lead or, alternatively, leading by three but therein forcing Washington to force the ball down an entire field in order to move into field goal range, Tampa Bay secured another whopping three points and gave the ball back to Washington on their own 20.
The rest is history. No. Let’s try that again. The rest is this gif:
Though an unfortunate decision could be the title of Lovie Smith’s biography, in essence, it was exactly that. One mistake based on a decision driven by a few inches cost the lowly Buccaneers a win. Would most have made that decision? Sure. But there’s enough easily accessible information nowadays to show that it was above all else an incorrect move. A field goal was all but guaranteed to be successful, but going for it produced the best odds to end it then and there.
And once Melvin Gordon was initially ruled out Sunday morning (he was actually declared active by kickoff but would muster only seven carries), I used the "Change Lineup" feature that some daily fantasy sites permit and inserted Danny Woodhead into all of my Phillip Rivers-led rosters. The Chargers didn't start scoring until they were well behind, but no matter. Garbage time needs love, too. Without that lineup change however, I would've been just another Lovie Smith leading my hypothetical team into battle with LeGarrette Blount rather than Woodhead.
See, Lovie. Those last second decisions really can help you win.
Here are your Week 8 matchups and movements (and picks.)
(Home team in CAPS)
Detroit Lions (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Projected Vegas Scoring Total: 45
One of my favorite unofficial moments of the 2015 season was when the great Jon Bois forced Ryan Tannehill to run drills against the practice squad:
If you were color blind, you could easily have mistaken the above video for lowlights from last week's Minnesota Vikings-Detroit Lions matchup. Matthew Stafford was sacked seven times and hit another 13 en route to the Lions inevitably being forced to send Joe Lombardi on his way and instead call upon a 31-year-old regarded highly by Peyton Manning to fill the void of offensive coordinator. Whether Jim Bob Cooter is effective or better served as an answer to "Coach or Country singer?" remains to be seen. Either way, his first task is making a nearly unusable offense in fantasy suddenly relevant against a Chiefs defense that has allowed only 47 points in the last three weeks.
It was easy to spend $700 on Charcandrick West two weeks ago then immediately overreact once he rushed for 33 yards against a stout Minnesota front seven, but West quietly led the league in red zone rushing attempts last week against the Steelers. The seven carries he received inside the 20 brings his total to 10 in the past two weeks alone and should only bode well moving forward. I'm not sure if that warrants buying him unless you're an owner of a back-needy roster, but if you sold after only one fruitless week, well, why the hell would you do that?
ATLANTA FALCONS (-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 49
Doug Martin has run for 100 yards and caught for another 30 in three straight games but game flow likely won't allow that to happen again (unless the Bucs are feisty enough to keep him in when trailing by 40, though you saw where that got the Texans). It also doesn't help Martin's chances that the Falcons have allowed only one running back to rush for more than 60 yards, and even that hasn't occurred since Joseph Randle did it forever ago in Week 3. I'm high on Martin moving forward, but there are too many red flags surrounding him this week. You're better off starting Mike Evans in all of your lineups since his 30 targets with Vincent Jackson out are inevitable.
Playing at home with one of the higher totals of the weekend, however, it appears to be another Devonta Freeman day. If his salary is too much for you (especially considering the cheaper options with high volume this week), hinging on regression from Matt Ryan (and stacking him with Julio Jones) is a safe bet, as well.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (+6) over Arizona Cardinals
Total: 46
Chris Johnson has 66 more carries than Andre Ellington and David Johnson combined and yet you'd have an easier time finding someone who enjoyed the most recent Fantastic Four before trusting his workload. No, I can't explain how a 30-year-old back ranks first in yards after contact. I have zero explanation for how someone gets shot one month then several months later leads the league in yards per carry (5.1 leads all runners with at least 100 carries). And yes, his 567 rushing yards this season, second only to Devonta Freeman, are baffling. But pretending like none of it is happening before our very eyes is even more ill-advised than not attempting to roster him.
The Browns have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have been gashed for 29 carries of 10 or more yards. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Arizona is tied for the third-most runs of such length. Assuming the betting line only grows in favor of the Cardinals, it's likely to be another fortuitous week for Johnson on the ground.
But, if looking elsewhere, Duke Johnson Jr. has recorded 36 targets since Week 3 and trails only Freeman, Justin Forsett, and Dion Lewis among backfield targets. The Cardinals are ranked bottom five in allowing receptions to runners. You know what to do.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (-8) over San Francisco 49ers
Total: 39.5
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over New York Giants
Total: 49
Eli Manning and Odell Beckham have been a disaster. The Saints are one of only two defenses allowing over 6.1 yards per play (San Diego being the other). Mark Ingram is the least talked about No. 2 overall running back of all time. Whatever. All that matters is that there is someone in the NFL named Orleans Darkwa and no one told me until last week. Why am I just now being made aware of this? Why did he lead the Giants in rushing? WHY AM I JUST NOW AWARE OF THIS?! I could have written that machination of detective-meets-NFL novel long ago had I known before.
Tracy took one last drag of the cigarette balanced neatly between her middle and index fingers before dropping it onto the damp pavement and using the ball of her foot to stamp out whatever lit ash remained. “You remember what to say, right?,” she asked her partner, arms tightly crossed to generate any amount of heat that generously grace her presence. “Umm yeah, I think so,” Dick hesitantly confirmed, tugging his burberry-tanned peacoat as to make himself seem more professional. More profound. “We knock on the door, you do the questioning, I chime in from time to time.” “Right,” she replied. “From time to time. Remember that part.” As they approached the brick-layered complex, flecks of grey paint from the roof drifting in the wind and rain and soot, Dick came to a sudden halt. “What’d you say his name was, again?,” he continued, “Orleans?” “Yeah. Orleans. Orleans Darkwa. Why?” Dick shook his head and adjusted the brim of his short hat. “What got into his folks?,” he snickered, amused by his own thoughts aloud. “That’s his informant name,” Tracy snapped. She stared at him for a second. An eternity, it seemed. “What, are you fucking stupid or something? Did you think that was his actual name?”
CHICAGO BEARS (+1) over Minnesota Vikings
Total: 42.5
You wouldn't think so from the outside looking in, but ask any Adrian Peterson owner who actually watches him play and they would be the first to tell you it's not all that it's cracked up to be. Thirty percent of Peterson's runs this season have been stuffed at the line or recorded negative yards. Basically, he'll have 12 carries for 21 yards and suddenly, BOOM, a 48-yard touchdown scamper or, much like last week, a 75-yard run that erases everything he had (or hadn't) done in the previous 30 minutes of play. He's still a Top 5 option, but there are numerous causes for concern beginning to linger.
But Minnesota has allowed only one runner to surpass 50 yards in four of the last five games. Though likely a tough day for Matt Forte and the Bears offense, they're still prone to produce at any moment while playing at home with a healthy Alshon Jeffery back in the lineup. Still, I'll likely be shying away from everyone but Stefon Diggs, who already leads the Vikings in receiving.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) over San Diego Chargers
Total: 50
As a Die Hard Bucs fan, I have to disagree with your logic about Jags going to London on 2 days rest. We went to London and spent a week there, then lost to a Bears team that got there 48 hours and looked like they slept 2 hours when they woke up to interview.
- Bucstopcom
Well you know what, Bucstopcom (if that is in fact your real name)?? What do you say to the Jaguars getting out to a 27-13 lead at the half -- an intermission that occurred around 3 p.m. London time, the equivalent of kicking off at 9 a.m. local and hitting the locker room around 10:30 -- only to allow 18 unanswered points in what essentially was noon back in Jacksonville? Does that mean anything to you? Have I confused you enough to stop commenting yet? Good, because the Chargers are traveling to play an early East coast game and this topic is once again relevant:
Since 2000, West Coast teams playing in the 1PM game in the Eastern time zone are 56-121, losing by an average score of 24-19.
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) October 28, 2015 The fun thing about fantasy is that you can be terrible and still the best at it. The Chargers are the torch bearers of that category. Their offensive line is a disaster, leading most owners to outright drop Melvin Gordon this past week, and yet Phillip Rivers is on pace to lead the league (and set new records) in completions and passing yards. Over the last three weeks, the Ravens have allowed the most passing yards while the Chargers have simultaneously thrown for the most. Considering San Diego is one of only three teams averaging more than 70 plays per game, stacking their offense is a good place to start.
But, if you’re buying the time narrative, that likely means you think the Chargers will be worn down. And if that is the case, Justin Forsett is the option for you. San Diego has been destroyed on the ground no matter their opponent, allowing just over 25 fantasy points per game to opposing runners. I doubt many will have exposure towards Forsett in general, making him one of the smarter contrarian plays of the weekend.
Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Total: 48.5
With reports of Pittsburgh moving forward with Ben Roethlisberger as their starter, I recently stepped outside and spotted an Antonio Brown owner:
Even better, Brown’s salary hasn’t increased in the slightest since having played with Michaelandry Vickones. You’re essentially getting a floor of eight receptions and 100 yards for the price of a receiver usually ranked outside of the Top 10, so make room for him in every lineup while you still can. On the opposite side of the field, Martavis Bryant has caught only nine balls but has scored on three of those. Since that trend is likely to regress sooner than later, I’m fine avoiding him this week. Instead, lean towards Marvin Jones (who has recorded more targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns than A.J. Green over the last two weeks.)
And for all those questioning whether or not you should start Le’Veon Bell (yes, this is a thing that exists), realize he’s already scored the 6th most fantasy points among running backs despite playing in only five games, all without Roethlisberger. If you know this person, report them. Or just trade for Bell. The latter seems easier.
New York Jets (-3) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
Total: 44.5
Even if we exclude the Patriots falsely pretending to have any interest in running the ball last week, the Jets have allowed only one running back to rush for more than 100 yards this season. I consider that a win since I basically look for any and all reasons to avoid Latavius Murray every Sunday. I'm not saying he's a terrible option, but 33 percent of his yards on the ground came against the Browns (notice the trend?) in Week 3. Personally, I need to see more before confidently using him.
The Oakland defense ranks Top 5 in rushing yards against and yards per attempt but Chris Ivory's hamstring might make him a fade, anyways. That doesn't mean you can't trust Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has scored at least 13 fantasy points in every game played this season. If Oakland suddenly becomes a dog by more than a field goal by kickoff, it's all-in on the "Amish Rifle".
DALLAS COWBOYS (+5.5) over Seattle Seahawks
Total: 41
Though I legitimately trust Jason Witten in this matchup -- Seattle has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends -- the running theme of Cowboys previews appears to be morphing into a weekly warning towards fantasy owners. For example, WARNING: Dez Bryant likely won't jump directly into your lineups and catch for a billion yards. It's always safer to give a one-week bumper to those returning from injury. I don't know how many started Brandon LaFell last week, but I'm sure they're not too pleased today. Even in rare cases where that particular process backfires (Antonio Gates, for instance), I always feel better being on the opposite end of whomever hobbles out onto the field.
If you’re asking whether you should start Bryant or, let’s say Ted Ginn, then sure: the upside of Dez is worth rostering despite the consequences of his disastrous floor. But being involved with such a low total and facing off against a Seattle defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, let someone else take the fall while you either A) load up on Marshawn Lynch, or B) avoid this one entirely.
DENVER BRONCOS (+2.5) over Green Bay Packers
Total: 45.5
With both defenses being in play, I'm not sure there's anywhere to go in this one. Demaryius Thomas has recorded 77 targets and will inevitably regress towards his expected production, but it likely won't happen against a Packers secondary allowing only 5.7 passing yards per play. For maybe the only time ever, I'm more than happy staying away from Aaron Rodgers and Co.
Indianapolis Colts (+7) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Total: 46.5
Whatever your approach, you can do no wrong as long as it involves the Panthers. Carolina has recorded one more interception than Andrew Luck has thrown in only five starts, making them a great stream for Week 8. Since the Colts are also implied to score the second fewest points of the weekend, it wouldn't hurt to stack Jonathan Stewart in your lineup as well. Stewart has received the touches all season. He just hasn't really done anything with them. Over the last two weeks however, Stewart has scored 34 fantasy points and averaged 4.6 YPC against Seattle and Philadelphia. That in itself is worth adjusting his value to.
Or, better yet, making the correct decision with.
* * *
(Editor's Note: The Tennessee Titans-Houston Texans line hadn't opened due to the pending status of Marcus Mariota at time of submission and therefore wasn't discussed.)
Last Week: 6-5-1
Week 7 Exposure: Carson Palmer (19.2), Phillip Rivers (27.4), Devonta Freeman (14), Todd Gurley (30.3), Danny Woodhead (27.6), DeAndre Hopkins (8), Julio Jones (19.7), Donte Moncrief (11.4), Michael Floyd (13.4), Ladarius Green (16.4), Rams (25)
Total: 55-37-4
Week 8 Exposure: Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson, Justin Forsett, Jonathan Stewart, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones, Julio Jones, Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, Falcons, Carolina
