Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 9

I rebuilt my roster on the fly this week. After losing Arian Foster, being disappointed by Rashad Jennings, struggling through Karlos Williams' injury and dealing Chris Ivory with some bad timing, I was down to Jennings, Antonio Andrews and Alfred Blue at running back. I had some depth, with Delanie Walker and Cam Newton as unnecessary luxuries on my bench, and Tony Romo stashed on IR, but with no running backs to speak of, I wasn't going anywhere.

Enter trades. Over the course of four deals this week, I gained Dion Lewis and T.J. Yeldon, turned Alshon Jeffery and Michael Crabtree into Emmanuel Sanders and Jarvis Landry, and added a couple of upside injury situations in Vincent Jackson and Sammy Watkins.

I have a shallower roster now. If something happens to Martellus Bennnett, I have to hope Ladarius Green can get healthy. If something happens to Aaron Rodgers, I can probably just walk into the woods. But the roster I had wasn't going to win anything. Now, I'm 4-4 (so many early injuries), with what I see as one of the best starting lineups in the league, and my biggest roster question is which defense to stream in a given week.

Jay Cutler vs. Chargers
Since returning from injury, Cutler has been very consistent, with 17, 17, 19 and 19 fantasy points in his last four games in standard scoring. Meanwhile, the Chargers have an awful, awful defense, with its numbers against quarterbacks buoyed only by a game against Minnesota in which the Vikings blew them out and didn't need Teddy Bridgewater, and a game against Pittsburgh with freakin' Michael Vick at the helm. With Matt Forte out, it stands to reason the Bears will be passing more than they'll be running. Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett are healthy. The Chargers are a good offense. I've run through like five reasons to use Cutler. He's a great Week 9 option.

Jameis Winston vs. Giants
You're looking for two things out of your fantasy quarterback. The first is a high ceiling. Well, the last quarterback to face the Giants — granted, Drew Brees is better than Winston — put up 46 fantasy points. Winston's ceiling isn't that, because no one's is, but against that defense, it's high. The other thing you want is a high floor. A quarterback that is as likely to put up seven points as 27 can be as frustrating as anything. Well, Winston hasn't had a huge game yet this year, but he's given fantasy owners at least 12 points every time out, including 19 in each of his last two games. Here's betting this is the week he gets to 20.

Eddie Lacy vs. Panthers
In three of their last four games, the Panthers have given up 100-plus yards to opposing running backs. After great games against the position in Weeks 1 and 2 (against Jacksonville and Houston, so, grain of salt), the Panthers have given up more than 20 fantasy points a game since. Meanwhile, we wanted to see Lacy look strong and healthy coming out of the bye, and instead we got 38 yards on 11 carries. Of course, that was against Denver. No other team is Denver. Another week to heal up, facing a friendlier defense ... Lacy is going to start showing flashes of the Eddie Lacy we expected.

C.J. Spiller vs. Titans
I've been high on Mark Ingram all season. And I've been rewarded, as he's been one of the league's top fantasy running backs all along. Another thing I feel I got right about the team's running game was my faith in Khiry Robinson, who I liked better than Spiller all year; Robinson has 46 fantasy points on the season, while Spiller sits at 25. Of course, Robinson's season ended a week ago, with a broken leg, taking his nine touches a game with him. Well, Ingram's averaging almost 20 touches a game. That number might rise a tiny amount, but he's a constant injury risk, and the Saints aren't going to want to up that too much. Enter Spiller, who has only six touches a game. Yes, he's an injury risk as well, but you'll see a bump in Spiller's numbers this week.

Emmanuel Sanders vs. Colts
Let's look at Sanders' fantasy points game by game: 6, 20, 8, 6, 11, 16, 2. I feel pretty comfortable calling Week 8's two-point game the outlier. With season lows in receptions and targets. Considering he was still dealing with a shoulder injury and the Broncos certainly didn't need to press him in a game they led throughout, Sanders' weak game can be excused (at least by me, and heck, I'm the one writing this). Against the Colts, Sanders runs right back up to the top of the heap at wide receiver. He's an easy WR1.

Tavon Austin vs. Vikings
I believed in Austin as a rookie. Too much, as it turns out. But check back to his early career. The first three games of his career, he had six catches a game, 8.7 targets, two touchdowns. It wasn't a superstar start — he had 118 total yards in those three games — but there were building blocks. And then, for no reason I ever really knew (some drops in his fourth game is the best I can guess), the Rams stopped. After seven or more targets in each of his first four games, and at least one rush in each of his first three, Austin was targeted that many times only once between that and Week 4 of this year. And then, suddenly, the Rams remembered who he was. The last four weeks, he's had seven targets three times. He's had at least one rush every game. He's scored five touchdowns. He's a real wide receiver, and the Rams are using him as such.

Jordan Reed vs. Patriots
Reed has played five games this season, and is averaging almost 10 targets a game. Even with DeSean Jackson back, Reed is likely to be the most heavily targeted Washington player in a game where, barring a big surprise, the team should trail early, leading to as many passes as Kirk Cousins' arm can throw. The Patriots struggled against tight ends early in the year, giving up 25 fantasy points to the position in three weeks before their bye. Since then, those numbers have improved. Of course, those numbers have improved again Dallas (with Brandon Weeden), Indianapolis (falling apart), the Jets (employing Jeff Cumberland) and Miami (that game was sad). Reed is a top-five tight end in Week 9.

Blake Bortles vs. Jets
Ignoring that the Jaguars are facing the Jets, and that's scary in itself, I've been facing questions about Bortles all week from people enamored of the second-year quarterback. And admittedly, his numbers have improved this season; Bortles averaged 11.1 fantasy points a game last year and is up to 17.9 this year. Still, it's easy to find some warning signs; after five interceptions in his four games, Bortles has thrown four in his last three. His passer rating was 80 or above in Weeks 2-5; it's been below 75 the last two weeks. Things are slowing down for the sophomore quarterback, and add back in the Jets opposition, and you can scare right off of any thoughts of Bortles.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jaguars
This is the most annoying possible outcome here. If Fitzpatrick were fully healthy, he'd be an interesting option against a Jacksonville team that has allowed big games to Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, even Brian Hoyer. But Fitzpatrick got hurt last week, and Geno Smith came in. Smith actually wasn't bad filling in, with 265 passing yards and two touchdowns against one interception. If Smith were to draw the start in place of Fitzpatrick, I'd have him 15th (in fact, that's where I did have him in our weekly rankings, when it looked like he'd start). Instead, Fitzpatrick is going to start the game, but who knows how his injured hand will do. You simply can't run Fitzpatrick out there with any confidence, not with the risk of injury aggravation, and you obviously can't put Smith out there either. If a quarterback succeeds against Jacksonville and no one uses him in fantasy, does he make a sound?

LeSean McCoy vs. Dolphins
At no point this season have the Bills had both McCoy and Karlos Williams active and healthy at the same time. What they have had is a Williams who was very good through four games (four touchdowns, 5.4 yards per carry) and a McCoy who has looked good in his two games since returning from injury (one touchdown, 4.5 yards per carry, 99 yards from scrimmage a game). With both backs expected to be healthy and active for Sunday against the Dolphins, McCoy will likely get the majority of the carries, but Williams has been too good to just ignore. McCoy by himself would be a top-10 (or so) running back, but losing some touches to Williams, he follows down a notch. Sure, he's still a fine flex candidate, but McCoy is less appealing than he would be without Williams.

Darren McFadden vs. Eagles
The only teams who have been better against fantasy running backs so far this year than the Eagles are Pittsburgh, the Jets and Seattle. Take out Week 7, when the Eagles had to pay special attention to Cam Newton, and they'd be tied for the best. The Eagles have allowed three rushing touchdowns all season: One to Newton, one to Kirk Cousins, one to Mike Tolbert. All three have their virtues. None of the three has anything in common with Darren McFadden beyond gender and sport interest. McFadden has the Dallas job all to himself, and that's great, but this isn't the week of any big performance eruption.

Martavis Bryant vs. Raiders
Famously, the Raiders have struggled against tight ends this season. That's part of their greater problem, which is struggles against the short pass. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are almost in the exact middle as a defense against the pass. But looking deeper, only seven teams have graded out worse against short passes than the Raiders. Meanwhile, only the Panthers and Cardinals grade out as better than the Raiders against deep passes. That's good news for tight ends, for versatile guys like Antonio Brown. But it's not good news for a deep-play guy like Bryant, who has to bust those deep plays to be his normal self. There are times where Bryant's upside makes it worth his possible downside. This week is not one of those times.

Donte Moncrief vs. Broncos
If all the Colts were healthy, this would be obvious. Secondary receiver against great defense, steer clear. But with the injury issues of T.Y. Hilton, I can imagine some people seeing Moncrief and thinking "Hey! New No. 1 option!" Suppress that urge just as long as you possibly can. Everything that scared you about Moncrief against the Broncos when Hilton seemed healthy should still scare you with Hilton out. Three fantasy points for Steve Smith Sr. and the Baltimore receivers. Five fantasy points for Jeremy Maclin and Kansas City. Three for Randall Cobb and the rest of the Packers' receivers. There's just no reason to use any receiver against Denver who isn't already the elite of the elite.