It’s not just who you draft, it’s when you draft them. You’ve probably heard this or some variation 100 times, but it’s definitely true. Fantasy owners really need to be on their toes to guess when their competitors will take a certain player. There are a lot of things that can affect the general perception of a specific player. For instance, if every single “expert” is raving about the same guy as a great target in the middle round, you’re going to have to be very aggressive to pick him up.
Doug Martin ADP: Why Yahoo! fantasy football ranks him higher than ESPN
Doug Martin fell on his face like he was in a skateboarding blooper video. Now, fantasy football owners might be able to sneak him late. Where should you draft him based on platform and ADP?
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Additionally, the platform for your draft is going to affect the average draft position. Not all sites feel exactly the same, so there will be some discrepancy on the ADP. For instance, if Yahoo! ranks Player X at 25 and ESPN ranks him at 75, his ADP on Yahoo! will be much higher than on ESPN. If some sneaky commish wanted to, he could choose his platform based on the rankings alone. If ESPN has his favorite guys higher than Yahoo!, he would want to do it on Yahoo!.
One other thing worth addressing is that ESPN uses two receivers and one flex while Yahoo! uses three receivers and no flex. This has very little impact on the rankings, but it’s just something to think about.
Fantasy owners did not enjoy owning Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin last year. Obviously, that caused his ADP to fall in 2015.
ESPN rank: 79Yahoo! rank: 70Fantasy Football Calculator (FFC) ADP: 54
While a 54 ADP is nowhere near where he went last season, Martin’s ADP has seen one of the sharpest increases of any player in the last month:
Wow, that’s almost a two-round jump in a little over two weeks. What’s up with that? Let’s take a quick look at some news surrounding Martin:
- On Aug. 3, coach Lovie Smith said Martin will be the lead back.
- On Aug. 8, the Tampa Tribune said Martin looks “leaner and quicker” in camp.
- On Aug. 15, he had 19 yards on five carries in the Bucs’ first preseason game.
Besides what coach Smith said, there’s really not a lot of news here. Things have been quiet around running back Charles Sims, who had 11 yards in the preseason opener. In other words, sometimes the fantasy world talks itself into fueling a player’s value without proper cause and that could be the case here.
Yahoo! has Martin a touch higher than ESPN, but the thing worth mentioning here is how much higher his ADP is. Based on how there is just so much manufactured buzz and not actual news, this ADP is just way too high. If you can sneak him near 65, you’re getting much better value.
