Fantasy football draft strategy: Handcuff running back rankings for 2015

Running backs are going to get hurt. It’s the facts. If you can avoid the injury bug better than your competition, you’re going to be ahead of the game. What’s more, if someone else has a guy go down and you have that person’s backup, you can make your team even stronger.

Of course, there are a lot of things to factor into what goes into a backup you’re going to want to stash. Before we get into who you want to target, let’s go over some things you’ll want to consider about drafting a backup later in your draft:

1. If the starter gets hurt, will this backup be a featured back?

Basically, if the backup splits time with the third-string guy, then who cares? This is by far the most important aspect when looking for a back to grab late in drafts. There aren’t many of these out there and those few are certainly worth a look at the end of a standard league draft.

2. Does the starter have an injury history or is he already hurt?

You could argue this is the top priority. Still, it’s a little more important to hit the home run on a backup with a higher ceiling. Nobody wants to stash a guy with the potential of being an RB3, and also we’ve seen plenty of durable guys get hurt. They’re running backs after all.

3. Is there a chance this backup could unseat the starter outright?

Sometimes the starters are on somewhat shaky ground. We’ve seen guys like C.J. Anderson, a third-stringer last year, come out hot and leapfrog both Ronnie Hillman and starter Montee Ball. This is a little more rare, but it happens. You could even argue the same is true for Jeremy Hill. Of course, both Giovani Bernard and Ball were both hurt, which opened the door in the first place. In other words, that’s why this factor is third and not first.

4. Is that backup in a favorable system?

If the backup’s team doesn’t score points and his starter isn’t really a strong target, then what’s the point in targeting him? Also, some teams just don’t have a strong running game or their coach changes his mind too much. Yes, this is about the New England Patriots.

5. Does he still have stand-alone value?

This is sort of tied into No. 3. If your team is completely decimated at running back, can you plug him in there and hope to get 4-6 points in a 12-team standard league? Chances are if this is the case, you were already considering him. The only real exception is if that team runs a three-back rotation.

One other thing to add is that this will be a ranking for handcuffs and not timeshare backs. The ranking for timeshares and third-down backs will be in another column. That column will include the position battles for No. 1 on the depth chart.

1. Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Doug Martin has been one of the best backs in the preseason and the buzz has brought him up to all the way up to fifth-round ADP. Still, it’s just the preseason and most of the increase in ADP has been due to buzz. It’s still very possible Martin flops and don’t forget Martin isn’t Lovie Smith’s guy. Sims is worth a look after the high-end timeshare guys go. A little bit after 100 in a competitive league makes sense.

2. Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles

If you checked out the timeshare article, you’ll find Mathews on there, too. He’s going to get some touches while DeMarco Murray is healthy and he should vault to a top-10 back should Murray miss games. He’s a really strong target after 110.

3. Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams

Mason has seen his value slide quite a bit lately. That’s because Todd Gurley is starting to do some team drills and could be ready to go for Week 1. The Rams are fully expected to limit Gurley early, but they could make him their featured back in the second half of the season. If you draft Gurley, you should still spend a late pick on Mason.

4. Knile Davis, Kansas City Chiefs

Davis would have been one of the best handcuffs to grab, but he’s hurt. He has a knee sprain and should be able to be close to 100 percent. As we saw last year, Davis took over as the featured back while Jamaal Charles was hurt. The Chiefs didn’t really add anyone, so he’s in the same spot.

On top of that, there’s talk of the Chiefs giving him more carries while Charles is healthy. “You just want to see that steady No. 2 running back right now that can come in in a pinch or come in and give Jamaal some needed rest, and has that explosiveness,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Doug Pederson said. “He’s more of your downhill type of runner.”

Davis is a very strong target around 120, especially if you take Charles.

5. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

He’s kind of a sneaky riser. The Cardinals gave him some first-unit looks in Week 2 of the preseason and that’ll likely continue this weekend, too. We all know Andre Ellington is very injury prone and coach Bruce Arians likes to use his back in passing situation. Don’t worry about Chris Johnson.

6. Darren McFadden, Dallas Cowboys

Joseph Randle likely has the job locked up, so that will put the oft-injured McFadden as the backup. Randle could easily flop or get hurt, so there’s no much in McFadden’s way. The Cowboys have the best offensive line in the game for rushing the ball, which makes the upside is really nice. If you draft Randle, you’ll want to give DMC a look around 110. Of course, beware of him getting hurt in Week 1.

7. Alfred Blue, Houston Texans

This one is the most interesting. Arian Foster is going to miss time due to a tear in his groin, so one would think that Blue would be a rock-solid pick in the late-mid rounds. However, Blue really hasn’t shined in the preseason while Chris Polk has done much better. On Hard Knocks, the coaching staff seems more bullish on Polk, too. Basically, this is likely to be a timeshare sans Foster.

8. Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos

This week, there were reports of the Broncos considering Hillman as the 1B to C.J. Anderson’s 1A and also that coach Gary Kubiak wants to give Hillman more carries. While this could be a smokescreen, one thing seems clear: Hillman is ahead of Montee Ball.

The Broncos are going to score a lot and Hillman fit into their system nicely while he was the starter last season. If you draft C.J. Anderson, you almost have to grab Hillman around 120, assuming nobody slips.

9. DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers

Le’Veon Bell is suspended for the first two games, so D-Will is going to start and get reps. The Steelers actually get decent matchups in the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots. If you take Bell, you should grab D-Will late.

10. Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills

Jackson is hurt with a hamstring injury, so he’s probably not going to be drafted in most leagues. However, LeSean McCoy also has a hammy issue, which makes him more vulnerable. If Shady goes down and Jackson gets to 100 percent, he’ll be a must-start back.

11. Andre Williams, New York Giants

Andre really fell out of favor with the Giants and now he’s going to back up Rashad Jennings. Jennings has had some injuries in his career, including multiple knee injuries, so there could be an opportunity there. He’s more of a target in 14-team leagues.

12. Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson is back, but don’t forget he’s battled through injuries even before he had his off-field issues last season. McKinnon wouldn’t be totally featured, but he showed he can run between the tackles.

13. Roy Helu, Oakland Raiders

It’s the Latavius Murray show, but expect Helu to get some third-down work.

14. Chris Polk, Houston Texans

As mentioned above, don’t sleep on Chris “Chicken and Shrimp” Polk. He could easily unseat Blue for the work in September. If you draft Foster and someone is aggressive on Blue to handcuff, go after Polk late. Plus, maybe Polk has a big Week 3 in the preseason.

15. Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints

He won’t get all the work should Mark Ingram go down, but he’ll likely get 15 carries or so. That’s enough to grab him in 14-team leagues.

16. James Starks, Green Bay Packers

He’s Eddie Lacy’s handcuff, but Starks was a bit of a letdown the last time Lacy was hurt last season.

17. Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Expect the Jaguars to give T.J. Yeldon a long leash. Still. rookies can get hurt and Robinson was somewhat impressive last year.

18. Stevan Ridley, New York Jets

He looks to be clearly behind Chris Ivory, who hasn’t been the most durable back.

19. James White and Jonas Gray, New England Patriots

White is probably ahead of Gray, but who knows with the Patriots?

20. Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore Ravens

Justin Forsett has his featured job locked up, but Taliferro has been productive in the instances he gets chances.

21. Dan Herron, Indianapolis Colts

Frank Gore is getting up there in age, but Herron simply hasn’t been good. He’ll likely split sans Gore.

22. Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch is the man and Michael likely wouldn’t be featured anyway.

23. Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers

If Melvin Gordon gets hurt, Oliver will have to share with Danny Woodhead.

24. Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins

Lamar Miller is safe and has been somewhat durable.

25. Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina Panthers

Jonathan Stewart has a laundry list of injuries, but there just isn’t enough data on CAP.

26. Matt Jones, Washington

He’s looked good in the preseason and is probably the No. 2 back behind Alfred Morris.

27. Ka’Deem Carey, Chicago Bears

If Matt Forte goes down, expect the Bears to split up the work.

28. Kendall Hunter, San Francisco 49ers

He has to make the team first.

The teams not having a handcuff are the Titans, Browns, Lions and Falcons. We will have more on them in our look at the uglier running back position battles.