Fantasy football draft strategy: Ranking running back by committee situations

Several teams don’t have a clear picture in their backfield. In fantasy, with uncertainty comes decreased draft value. Nobody is going to want to invest a top-30 pick with a 50 percent chance of losing his job. Finding the right price on taking a chance is one of the most important aspects of drafting a good team with depth. Would you draft a guy with a 50 percent chance to win the job after pick 100? That’s what this column is all about, especially with so many teams undecided on their depth chart.

Additionally, there are plenty of backfields already decided on a two-back system. There is still going to be some value here and most of those third-down backs can still create some nice value in PPR leagues. Even without the PPR, those touches out of the backfield will create some yards and scores.

Another factor in this situation is recognizing higher ceilings vs. higher floors. In a standard league, you’re definitely going to be looking for a higher floor because the scoring just isn’t as high. For instance, if a back catches five balls for 65 yards and no score with nine rushing yards, that’s a solid outing in PPR. It’s not something you’re going to want in a PPR, though.

With that, let’s rank the second back in the running-back-by-committee players along with the position-battle guys. As for the clear-cut backups, you can check out a ranking of those guys here. If the depth charts look somewhat solid at one and two, you can find the rankings of the backups there and why it is more clear than most.

1. C.J. Spiller, New Orleans Saints - If you’re in a PPR league, you’re certainly not looking at Spiller as a backup player. In the Sean Payton system, we’ve seen guys like running back Darren Sproles be a PPR RB1 most of the season, which is likely the role Spiller will resume.

Starter Mark Ingram definitely has the early-down work in the bag and he’ll get the touches at the goal line, too. Fantasy owners in standard leagues can give him a look in the sixth or seventh round. If Ingram gets hurt, expect Khiry Robinson to fill the carries void. Give Spiller a look in the early fifth or sixth in a standard and in the fourth in a PPR.

2. Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons - Tevin Coleman is going to start this weekend, which is arguably the biggest thing to watch in the fantasy world. He likely has a decent lead on Devonta Freeman. The Falcons changed their offensive coordinator to Kyle Shannahan, who has been a fan of running the football. Plus, the Falcons offensive line is improving with Jake Matthews in his second season at tackle.

If you really want to swing for the fences, you might want to give him a look in the fifth or sixth rounds. He has high-end RB2 potential.

3. Joique Bell, Detroit Lions - This is a weird one. Bell could be the starter and the Lions are saying he could be the bell cow. Well, the fantasy community doesn’t buy it with Ameer Abdullah going in the fourth round of drafts. Abdullah probably won’t get the goal-line work, especially out of the gate to start the season.

Bell did have himself a strong run to end the year and the Lions obviously won’t be giving Abdullah all of the carries. You could even argue Bell would out-produce Double-A for most of the season even with both healthy. He possesses a fairly high floor and could be a solid flex in standard leagues.

4. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals - To a lesser degree than Spiller, Gio is a much more valuable piece in PPR leagues. Plus, Jeremy Hill looks like a better back than Ingram, too. Fantasy owners in standard leagues aren’t going to be sweet on him.

Even with Hill eating like he was at a buffet in December 2014, Gio averaged 8.0 carries, 35.0 rushing yards and 36.0 receiving yards with 0.5 touchdowns per game. That’s really not bad and it’s worth 10 points in a standard league. You can probably pick him up around pick 90.

5. Shane Vereen, New York Giants - Another PPR player to watch, Vereen is going to get plenty of catches with the Giants. He won’t be getting early-down work, but the Giants do pack a decent punch as an offense this year. For what it’s worth, the Giants are really looking to pass the ball around this preseason, which would be a nice bonus for Vereen’s value. Don’t be surprised if Vereen can score more points than Gio.

6. Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns - Duke Johnson has been making a charge for Crowell’s top spot on the depth chart. The Browns haven’t really given him much verbal support, which is a little unusual for a second-year player. He’s kind of on thin ice, but he did look good last year.

Fantasy owners might want to be careful here and a big Week 3 in the preseason from Duke could really change things. You’ll want to watch that.

7. David Cobb, Tennessee Titans - This is a very similar situation. The Titans aren’t exactly praising Bishop Sankey, which means David Cobb could leapfrog Sankey. Of course, the Titans might have one of the worst offensives in the NFL, so it’s a little hard to be too aggressive after this position battle.

Cobb hasn’t looked great in the preseason and he’ll need a big Week 3 in the preseason to be worth a look inside the top 100.

8. Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons - If Tevin Coleman flops, we might see Freeman get a chance to start. Freeman is worth drafting towards the end of your league right now. As mentioned above, the Falcons do like to go with a one-back system, so even a 25 percent chance to be the starting back is worth a pick.

9. Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles - He’s not just a handcuff. Coach Chip Kelly said he doesn’t want to lean on just DeMarco Murray, so that bodes well for Mathews. The Eagles gave him most of the goal-line carries in the preseason, but that probably won’t happen much during the regular season.

Still, don’t forget that Murray was a bit injury prone before he busted lose last year. Mathews is no Cal Ripken Jr. of football or anything, but he’ still a solid late target.

10. Reggie Bush, San Francisco 49ers - Another PPR guy, Bush is going to be a third-down guy. He’s not quite a handcuff because that role will likely go to Kendall Hunter, assuming he’s healthy. He doesn’t really have enough upside to draft in a standard because the 49ers offense doesn’t look strong. In a PPR, you can give him a look near 110 or so.

11. Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans - The Sankey leg was a very popular pick in the middle rounds last year, but there was just one problem: Sankey wasn’t good. The good news for him is he is actually looking good in the preseason while Cobb isn’t doing much. The Titans did change their offensive line around, so maybe that change helps him. Sankey even said the team “blocked really well” last week. Cobb is probably the better target now.

12. Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns - As mentioned above, Crowell has the edge now, but it will probably won’t last as long as Duke steps up. The Browns aren’t very good, so Duke is more of a stash as your last pick.

13. Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers - In a PPR, you can target Woodhead around 120 or so, but you don’t want to grab him in a standard. If Melvin Gordon goes down, expect Branden Oliver to get more touches.

14. Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles - With Ryan Mathews in the picture, it’s really tough to grab Sproles in a standard. In a PPR, you’re probably going to want to look for him after 140.

15. Lance Dunbar, Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys need a third-down back, so Dunbar looks to be that guy.