We’re already a quarter of the way through the 2016 season. NFL football flies by. Bye weeks are kicking in, so you’re probably scrambling for some substitutes.
Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 5
The NFL season is still young, but most fantasy football leagues are reaching the quarter point this weekend. Lineup decisions are going to be critical. Here is our start/sit advice for Week 5 fantasy football.
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Last week’s advice looks solid in retrospect. Let’s see if we can recreate some of that magic again for Week 5. Let’s go.
Start
QB Jameis Winston at Panthers
In his brief NFL career, Winston has actually averaged nearly four more fantasy points per game on the road than at home. Owners are probably a bit wary of him after the poor outing from Week 4, but the Broncos will do that to most QBs. The Panthers just gave up 503 yards and four touchdowns to Matt Ryan. Winston can be boom-or-bust, but if you're looking for a bye week replacement, or maybe someone to sub over Ryan against the Broncos, I'll take Winston.
QB Andrew Luck vs. Bears
The Chicago-Indianapolis matchup currently boasts the second-highest over/under for Week 5, and the Colts the favorites at -4.5. Luck's offensive line is horrible, but he continues to make up for the lack of fantasy production with garbage time points. Chicago's pass defense looks inflated due to three matchups with inexperienced quarterbacks. I'm betting on a big game from Luck at home.
RB Jordan Howard at Colts
He was on my start list last week, and I’m sticking with him again. If you look at Football Outsiders defensive statistics, you’ll notice the Colts are toward the bottom of the league against the run. They allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. Howard is staying involved in the passing game, so even if the Bears do find themselves playing catch-up, he gain still rack up points.
RB Jerick McKinnon vs. Texans
Houston has been torn apart by running backs this year, giving up huge numbers to DeMarco Murray, LeGarrette Blount, and even a solid day to Jeremy Langford in Week 1. Lead running backs are averaging 19.3 points (PPR) per game against the Texans. McKinnon shined in prime time against the Giants. Keep riding his momentum.
WR DeVante Parker vs. Titans
Tennessee's numbers against the pass probably make owners worry a bit about Miami's receivers, but this sets up as a great time to start Parker. He'll be facing Perrish Cox, who is bad at his job (stopping wide receivers). Pro Football Focus ranks Cox near the bottom of the league. Parker will see plenty of action in this favorable matchup. He can be boom-or-bust, but bet on him for Week 5.
WR Sterling Shepard at Packers
I thought about throwing Odell Beckham Jr. on this list, but hopefully your're always starting him, even with the attitude problems. The Packers have given up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Shepard gets a good matchup with Quinten Rollins, who has already been on the hook for two touchdowns. Shepard has seen the second-most targets from Eli Manning. The Packers offense looks like it's clicking again, which means Eli and his offense will probably be throwing often trying to keep up.
TE Martellus Bennett at Browns
Two 100-yard games, two complete duds. What do we do with Bennett? Long-term I can't say, but this week he's a great option. The Browns have given up the most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends. Gronk is still a mystery, and while he might start to emerge in Week 5, Bennett can own this matchup, as well.
TE Zach Ertz at Lions
Detroit has already allowed six touchdowns to tight ends through four games. And we're not talking about elite-level tight ends, we're talking about guys like Jack Doyle, Richard Rodgers, and Zach Miller. Ertz saw seven targets in Week 1 and finished with six receptions. Carson Wentz will be happy to have his No. 1 tight end back.
Sit
QB Brock Osweiler at Vikings
Five touchdowns and six interceptions. Not the start Texans fans we're hoping to see from Osweiler. They're still winning, but fantasy owners aren't. Osweiler is the QB25. Now he faces a Vikings defense that nobody wants to go against.
RB Rashad Jennings/Orleans Darkwa
Jennings looks like he could return for Week 5, which means you're not rolling with Darkwa. But regardless of the starter, the Packers have been dominant against the run, giving up a ridiculously low 1.8 yards per carry. Their secondary has been a completely different story, so expect New York to attack through the air.
RB Jay Ajayi vs. Titans
The Dolphins might be getting rid of the committee, at least Gase says they are, but Ajayi probably won't be doing much to make a difference in this one. The Titans have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, allowing a single touchdown and only 86 receiving yards. With how dysfunctional the Miami offense looks, I'm not betting on anyone in their backfield.
WR Mike Wallace vs. Washington
Washington's secondary is exploitable, but not in Wallace's case. He's likely to draw a matchup with Josh Norman often. Wallace hasn't topped 50 yards receiving since Week 1, and most of that yardage come off a 66-yard play. He has seven catches for 78 yards in his last two games. He caught four of his nine targets in Week 4. He's the same Mike Wallace.
WR Golden Tate vs. Eagles
I’m actually hoping that putting Tate on my sit list will be a reverse jinx, so if he goes off, you’re welcome. Tate has been a complete flop so far in 2015, as best depicted by his one catch, 1-yard performance in Week 4. Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said Tate is going to have a “huge week.” Right, sure, Jim Bob. Until we actually see legitimate production, I’m keep Tate on my bench.
TE Jacob Tamme at Broncos
Denver has kept every tight end it has faced out of the end zone. Greg Olsen caught seven passes for 73 yards against them in Week 1, and that's the best stat line we've seen against this defense. Tamme really only blew up in Week 2. He's managed 31 yards in the last two games. The Falcons are spreading the ball around, Austin Hooper is seeing a few looks here and there, and the run game is thriving.
TE Kyle Rudolph vs. Texans
You're probably not going to do this because: 1) There aren't a lot of great tight end options out there. 2) He's scored in three straight games. But it's hard to ignore how good the Texans are against tight ends. The best line we've seen against them came from Travis Kelce, who caught five passes for 34 yards in Week 2. Houston only allowed five touchdowns to tight ends in all of 2015. Tread lightly with Rudolph.
