Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 13

A lot of you are starting your fantasy playoff run next week, so congrats if you’re in that boat. If you’re not going to make the playoffs, we at least appreciate you still reading our fantasy advice, for whatever reason.

Last week’s start/sit list was decent, but there were some misses here and there, mostly on quarterbacks to plug into your lineup. Let’s see if we can find some redemption for those misses. Here are several of the best and worst matchups for Week 13.

QB Colin Kaepernick at Bears
In case you haven’t been watching football, Kaepernick has finished as a QB1 every game since the 49ers returned from their bye. Last week he was the No. 1 quarterback in fantasy. Danny Trevathan is now out for the year, and Jerrell Freeman is still suspended. The Bears are without two of their best players on an already average defense. Last week, Kaepernick rushed for 113 yards and a touchdown against Miami. His ability to run provides a solid floor against a reeling opponent.

QB Philip Rivers vs. Buccaneers
Rivers has thrown at least two touchdowns in every home game except his meeting with Denver, which is completely understandable given what we’ve seen out of that defense. Tampa has faced a rather subpar run of quarterbacks in the last three games, padding their defensive stats a bit. But Derek Carr and Matt Ryan posted back-to-back four-touchdown games against the Bucs. Rivers is back in the QB1 discussion for Week 13.

RB Jordan Howard vs. 49ers
Even with Matt Barkley under center, Howard posted 127 total yards against the Titans, one of the tougher matchups for running backs from a fantasy perspective. We preach the same thing every week. Start whoever is facing the 49ers. They’re the only team that has allowed 300-plus fantasy points to running backs. Howard will continue to roll as the focal point of the Bears offense.

RB Theo Riddick vs. Saints
The Lions are underdogs by nearly a touchdown, meaning we’re likely to see them playing from behind in what sets up to be possibly the highest-scoring game of the week. Riddick played 79 percent of the snaps on Thanksgiving and once again proved to be much more efficient than Dwayne Washington. In the last three games, Washington has 28 carries for 51 yards. The Saints have allowed the third-most fantasy points and the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs.

WR Jarvis Landry at Ravens
Baltimore is tied for second-most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers (17). DeVante Parker appears unlikely to suit up for Sunday, making Landry an even more important piece in the Dolphins’ offense. He shouldn’t see much of cornerback Jimmy Smith playing out of the slot, making his matchup even more enticing. The Ravens possess the No. 1 run defense. You can expect to see Ryan Tannehill look for Landry on short routes often to do whatever they can to move the ball.

WR Marquess Wilson vs. 49ers
He came out of nowhere to post a ridiculous 8/125/1 line against the Titans in Week 12. Wilson only played 59 percent of the snaps, but he led the Bears in targets. Now, he faces the defense that has given up the most touchdowns (20) to opposing wide receivers. Barkley played well against a struggling Titans defense, and now he faces an even better matchup with San Francisco.

TE Eric Ebron vs. Saints
The Saints-Lions matchup has the highest over/under for Week 13. Ebron completely let down owners last week with a blank stat line on Thanksgiving, but he’s seen at least five targets in every game but Week 12, and the Saints have allowed six tight ends to either catch a touchdown or post 50-plus yards.

QB Andy Dalton vs. Eagles
Dalton has two games with multiple passing touchdowns in 2016. Right now he’s the QB18 in fantasy points per game. The Eagles have allowed 16 passing touchdowns, but only five of those have come at home. AJ Green and Gio Bernard are out, leaving Dalton with few real weapons in the passing game. With four passing touchdowns and four interceptions in the last four games, we should expect a similar performance in Week 13.

QB Blake Bortles vs. Broncos
Bortles is the QB10 for the season, and he managed another QB1 finish last week thanks to 81 rushing yards against the Bills. But when he’s facing the toughest matchup for passers, you’re giving him a spot on the bench. The Broncos have only allowed three quarterbacks to score two or more touchdowns against them this year. Opposing passers have topped 200 yards in just five of 11 matchups.

RB Thomas Rawls vs. Panthers
I’m not buying in, at least not yet. The Panthers have allowed the second-fewest rush yards per game. Even without Luke Kuechly last week they held Latavius Murray to 45 yards on 19 carries. Carolina also gives up the most passing yards per game on the road. Russell Wilson should be able to exploit that weakness, as the Seahawks can focus on their passing attack. Rawls has a difficult schedule the rest of the year, and Seattle’s O-line isn’t doing him any favors.

RB Jonathan Stewart at Seahawks
Seattle is a big favorite in this one, which doesn’t bode well for Stewart’s workload. Carolina hasn’t been able to run the ball at all outside of a 47-yard gain by Stewart last week. He’s still touchdown dependent. Aside from a monster game from LeGarrette Blount, Seattle has stifled most opposing running backs at home. Only three running backs have scored against this defense.

WR Allen Robinson vs. Broncos
Well, it was nice while it (sort of) lasted. Robinson finished with at least 70 yards in each game between Week 8-10, but his last two starts have produced five catches for 42 yards. The Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, and it’s not even close. Now, Denver has given up four touchdowns to wide receivers in the last three games, but Robinson’s targets have declined in the past two outings, and Blake Bortles is, you know, Blake Bortles.

WR DeSean Jackson at Cardinals
The definition of boom-or-bust, Jackson has now caught a touchdown in two straight games. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points (standard and PPR) in 4-of-10 games. Now he gets to face off against Patrick Peterson. Last week Peterson kept Julio Jones in check, holding him to 35 yards. As Rotoworld’s Evan Silva notes, only two wide receivers have gone for 80-plus yards against the Cardinals. The chances of Jackson blowing up are slim, and while he’s always a threat to hit one home run a game, this isn’t the week to bank on it.

TE Vernon Davis at Cardinals
The Cardinals do not mess around with tight ends. Forget about Jordan Reed’s injury and Davis’ resurgence this year. Arizona has not allowed a single touchdown to a tight end, and they haven’t allowed more than 53 yards to any player at this position. It’s not a bold move to start Davis. It’s an extremely ill-advised one.