Fantasy football start/sit advice, Week 16

This is it, the matchup you’ve been building toward all season. The fantasy finals are here. Hopefully you’re not in a league that runs through Week 17, because if you are, you might want to vote on a change for 2017.

Last week’s column was a mixed bag, but the wide receiver and tight end advice was spot on. Let’s take a look at what’s on the slate for Week 16.

QB Andrew Luck at Raiders
Luck finished as the QB8 last week against a tough Vikings pass defense. Now he takes on a Raiders secondary that gives up 259 yards per game. The first five games of the year were embarrassing for Oakland, as it gave up 12 passing touchdowns over that span. While the Raiders defense has improved down the stretch, Luck has also stepped his game up. He has at least two touchdowns in each of his last four starts. Plus, the Colts have only failed to top 30 points in one road game.

QB Tyrod Taylor vs. Dolphins
Miami allows the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Taylor finished as the QB3 for Week 7 when he faced the Dolphins for the first time this season. This defense struggles with dual-threat quarterbacks. Taylor’s home/away splits are somewhat staggering. He averages nearly five fantasy points more per game when playing in Buffalo. Everything here equates to another QB1 performance for him.

RB Todd Gurley vs. 49ers
Ah, what a familiar feeling it is deciding whether to start Gurley. He has failed to break the 100-yard mark in every game, and he’s only scored in 4-of-14 matchups this season. However, the 49ers are extraordinarily bad against the run. They’ve given up 25 total touchdowns to running backs. They allow by far the most fantasy points per game to the position. Gurley’s floor here is more than enough to warrant starting him.

RB Bilal Powell at Patriots
Matt Forte powered through a torn meniscus to suit up for Week 15, but Powell stole the show. Forte injured his shoulder in that game, and he now appears unlikely to play in Week 16, leaving Powell with an even bigger share of the workload. New England is tough on the ground. Only one running back has topped 50 yards rushing against the Patriots in the last five games. However, they’ve allowed the second-most receptions to running backs. Teams often find themselves abandoning the run game while they attempt to catch up to the Patriots’ high-scoring offense. Expect Powell to eat up plenty of catches from Bryce Petty as the Jets are in constant comeback mode.

WR Malcolm Mitchell vs. Jets
The rookie caught one pass for 14 yards last week, but he was facing the Broncos, so that was expected. He still played 89 percent of the snaps, the most he’s played all year. Now he faces a Jets defense that ranks No. 11 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Mitchell scored twice on this defense back in Week 12. The game script will be different than last week for the Patriots, and it should favor Mitchell.

WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Bengals
Hopkins is typically a member of the sit list each week. Brock Osweiler has been dreadful in 2016, taking Nuk’s fantasy stock down with him. But it’s a new day in Houston. Tom Savage is starting under center. Savage entered last week’s game and attempted 36 passes. Fifteen of those throws went to Hopkins, who posted his second-highest yardage total of 2016. The Bengals have been tougher on wide receivers recently, but aside from Antonio Brown, they haven’t faced an elite wideout since Week 10 when Odell Beckham Jr. went for 10/97/1. Hopkins can provide redemption with a quarterback who force-feeds him the ball.

TE CJ Fiedorowicz vs. Bengals
Two Houston pass catchers in one start list? That might be the craziest thing written in this column in 2016. It might be foolish putting this much stock in Savage’s ability, but he looked solid against a Jaguars pass defense that allows the fourth-fewest yards per game. Savage completed seven passes to tight end Ryan Griffin last week. Fiedorowicz is practicing in full, so the concussion issue appears to be behind him. Look for him to do some damage against the defense that allows the third-most fantasy points to tight ends.

QB Marcus Mariota at Jaguars
The rest of the team might suck, but the secondary has been one of the few bright spots in Jacksonville in 2016. The Jaguars allow the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Only five passers have thrown for multiple touchdowns against this defense. Philip Rivers is the only quarterback with more than two passing touchdowns against the Jaguars. Mariota was the QB11 against them in Week 8. The Jaguars rank No. 20 in run defense. The Titans can stick to the ground game. Mariota also has two turnovers and zero touchdowns in his last two starts.

QB Joe Flacco at Steelers
Flacco has scored multiple touchdowns in 2-of-8 career starts at Pittsburgh. This season, he is averaging five fewer fantasy points on the road than at home. He’s starting to look like a streaming option late in 2016, but you should continue to avoid him in a tougher matchup where he historically posts mediocre numbers. Quarterbacks have throw six touchdowns and seven interceptions against the Steelers over the last five weeks.

RB Terrance West at Steelers
Sticking with the Baltimore offense, West continues to keep his owners up at night as they question whether to start him. Last week he compiled 122 total yards against the Eagles. But now he gets a Steelers defense that has stepped up its run game late in the season. Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. West finished with 27 total yards on 16 touches in his first matchup with this defense in Week 9.

RB Tevin Coleman at Panthers
The second-year back has one usable week (RB24 or higher) in his last four games. Owners know Coleman is a boom-or-bust option, but he hasn’t really boomed since returning from injury in Week 12. The Panthers have not allowed at running back to score on them at home in 2016. They’ve only given up one receiving touchdown to a running back, and that happened in Week 1. Devonta Freeman has seven touchdowns in his last four games. Expect the Falcons to lean on him.

WR Tyreek Hill/Jeremy Maclin vs. Broncos
Hill was on the start list last week, and that only paid off due to his 68-yard rushing touchdown. He didn’t have a single catch in Week 15. Maclin caught six passes for 82 yards against the Titans, both season-highs. Hill’s snaps/usage take a hit with Maclin in the lineup, but you shouldn’t start either against the toughest pass defense in the NFL. Denver hasn’t allowed a wide receiver to score in three games, and the Broncos have only given up six touchdowns to the position all season. Don’t bank on one home run from Hill in the championship.

WR AJ Green at Texans
You might be enticed to start your first-round pick, but it’s a bad idea. Green missed the last five weeks with a hamstring injury. He believes he’s ready to return for Week 16, but if he does suit up, there’s no telling what his workload will look like. Throw in the fact that the Texans allow the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (even with their recent struggles against No. 1 wideouts), it’s a good idea to avoid Green’s situation altogether.

Every week the formula is: sit Graham against Arizona. The Cardinals erase tight ends from the game script. They’re allowing 3.0 fantasy points per game to the position. Three points, folks. Dion Sims is the only tight end to score on Arizona this season. Graham completely let down owners the past two games, catching a single pass in each start. Forget about him.