Top daily fantasy football plays for Week 11 of the NFL season

SB Nation will be bringing you the top Daily Fantasy options each week through the regular season and into the playoffs. We have a small sample size of which offenses look good to target and others we should avoid until further notice. As for who should be in your lineups, here are the top value plays of the week, with an eye toward low ownership and high upside.

We don’t usually recommend the top-priced quarterback, as there are usually strong values on any given slate and there are players at other positions worth paying up for. But this week is a bit of an outlier, with the two consistently highest-priced players having already played, leaving a pricing structure where virtually any player can be fit comfortably into a lineup. And Brady may never get a better matchup, facing arguably the worst pass defense in the league at high altitude on a neutral field. Brady could have a game for the ages here, making his salary almost a bargain.

Smith could be in for a depressed ownership level, given the dire wind forecast for Met Life Stadium on Sunday. But for all of Smith’s fantasy goodness this year, it’s not the function of long-range bombing. He will shovel pass and throw screens at find his all-world tight end, and he will run. And the Giants have long ceased trying to stop anyone, especially two weeks ago against Jared Goff.

If Brady can go nuts in Mexico City, so can Carr. The Patriots’ defense hasn’t stopped anybody good all season and Carr has all the weapons he needs to try and match Brady yard-for-yard in a game with a high shootout potential. A Pats-Raiders stack makes a lot of sense, and saving $1,000 with Carr allows for fitting in all the key receiving pieces.

Cutler has actually been pretty good lately, with four straight multi-touchdown games. Both teams here are circling the drain, so the defensive intensity probably isn’t going to be there. The Bucs’ pass defense has been lousy all season, so if Cutler doesn’t beat himself with poor decisions, he should be able to keep his multi-touchdown streak alive.

Leonard Fournette is either going to be out or limited. The Browns excel at stopping the run, but not much else. Last week, Bortles threw the ball a crazy 51 times. He probably won’t match that volume in the wind in Cleveland, but 40 attempts is well within reason. That should translate into a couple hundred yards and multiple scores.

Stafford has been on fire lately, but the cold air in Chicago – not to mention a surprisingly strong Bears pass defense, should throw a chill into the Lions’ passing attack. With Smith just $100 more and Carr $200 less, this is a good week to take a pass.

Also consider: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints; Kirk Cousins, Washington; Ryan Fitzpartick, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Giants have pretty much closed up shop on the 2016 season, and that’s been particularly noticeable on defense, where the Rams and 49ers have shredded them the past two weeks. With the wind expected to be a factor, the Chiefs will certainly lean on the run, giving Hunt a terrific opportunity to re-discover his early-season form. If Carlos Hyde can run wild on the Giants, Hunt is a pretty solid bet, too.

Let the Nathan Peterman Era begin! There’s no way to know how the rookie is going to respond in his first career start, but one has to believe the Bills are going to lean even heavier on their bell-cow back to try to hide Peterman. McCoy’s volume is also enhanced by the injury to Mike Tolbert, who had been consistently getting a decent amount of carries all season. Those touches should go to Shady.

With Rob Kelley out of the picture, and in a game where there’s going to be points scored, Thompson is in a terrific spot. Samaje Perine might be the early-down back to start the game, but it’s going to be Thompson’s pass-catching ability that’s going to be the primary weapon in Washington’s backfield. And if the Saints break out to an early lead, Thompson’s role in the passing game should only increase. He is a terrific value play on DraftKings’ full-point PPR slates.

Martin isn’t lighting the world on fire, but given the matchup, this is a real mispricing by DraftKings. The Bucs are on record this week saying they intent to feed Martin more than any other time this season and the Dolphins are positively dreadful at stopping the run. Alex Collins, Marshawn Lynch and Jonathan Stewart all dominated games the past three weeks. Martin is a prime spot to 5X or even 6X his salary.

Had Chris Hogan been ruled out before the pricing was released, Burkhead would probably be slotted in the 5K range. Instead, Hogan wasn’t declared out until late in the week, and that’s huge for Burkhead, who has seen his role in the passing game increase in Hogan’s absence. Burkhead is probably good for 8-10 carries and 5-6 targets against a poor Raiders pass defense. The only knock on Burkhead is an ownership level that might be the highest on the slate.

Fournette is questionable, but it seems like he’s headed for an inactive designation. If he plays on his sore ankle, he’s probably going to be limited, and the Browns are actually skilled at stopping the run. There’s just way too much uncertainty and downside to justify rostering him.

Also consider: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams; Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals; Orleans Darkwa, New York Giants

The hope here is that less-savvy DFS players see that Thomas is facing Washington’s secondary and assume he will be covered all day by Josh Norman and stay away. In reality, Thomas will not be on Norman’s radar for most of the game, especially if Thomas runs routes out of the slot. It’s Ted Ginn that should draw most of Norman’s coverage. That means Thomas is set up for a big day at the Superdome in a potential shootout.

Another player who might see a dip in ownership because of weather concerns, but we’ve seen Andy Reid scheme to get Hill the ball in ways that don’t require long passes. He takes handoffs and shovel passes and bubble screens. Reid is the master at using the bye to prepare a winning game plan, and Hill is as dynamic as any player in the game.

Landry has gotten at least 10 targets in all but two games this season and the Bucs have been near the bottom of the league in pass defense pretty much the entire year. The Buccaneers have allowed a slew of slot receivers to have big games this season and Landry has a touchdown in four of his past five games. He’s a great bet to pay off handsomely this week.

Considering that Crowder has 24 targets and 199 yards receiving over his past two games, it’s hard to believe that Crowder is priced so cheap. It is what it is, and this is a salary to take advantage of. With Jordan Reed ruled out, Crowder’s target share should stay sky-high.

With Will Fuller ruled out, Ellington will draw the start against the Cardinals and with Patrick Peterson shadowing DeAndre Hopkins, Ellington should easily surpass the eight targets he’s received in each of his past two games. This is the top salary-saving option on the entire slate.

As we just mentioned, Hopkins is going to see Patrick Peterson all day, and the dramatic dip in salary reflects that reality, as well as the effect of the massive downgade at quarterback. It’s one thing to use minimum salary on a Texans receiver not facing a top corner. It’s another to pay twice that for a guy who might not get open – or the ball – the entire game.

Also consider: Brandin Cooks, New England Patriots; Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders; Marquis Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars.

All things being equal, the best play on the entire slate is Travis Kelce at $7,300 against the dreadful and unmotivated Giants defense that has been destroyed by tight ends all year long. But when factoring in ownership levels, the play in tournaments is to pivot to the second-best tight end on the slate. With Chris Hogan out, Gronk should see his own fair share of looks, especially in the red zone. He will give Kelce a run for the money in DK points at half the ownership. And if the wind is really bad in Jersey and the Giants actually try, a Kelce fade could pay off huge.

The super-pivot is dropping down to Engram, who is the No. 1 pass option. Sterling Shepard is also a strong play out of the slot, but Engram has higher touchdown upside, having scored in four games in a row. He should be just as busy as Kelce and Gronk at lower salary and ownership, making him a sharp play in tournaments.

Cook has topped 100 yards in receiving in two of his past three games and the Patriots are highly susceptible to the pass in the thin air of Mexico City. Cook’s price has come up some since his second big game in the past three, but he’s still pretty cheap for the volume he can expect to see in this one.

Jordan Reed keeps missing games and Davis keeps delivering solid performances. Davis has realty stepped up the past two weeks, garnering 20 targets and topping 70 yards in each game. If he can find the end zone in a shootout environment at the Superdome, he could be the surprise play at the position this week.

With Will Fuller out and DeAndre Hopkins on lockdown with Patrick Peterson, the passing yards have to go somewhere, and Fiedorowicz is a good bet to get some of that re-directed action.

Henry has four targets and three catches in the past two games combined. He’s had disappearing acts already this season, and against a decent defense against the position, it could continue another week.

Also consider: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs; Tyler Kroft, Cincinnati Bengals; Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers ($3,400 DK, $4,700 FD)

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants ($3,300 DK, $5,100 FD)

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans ($3,200 DK, $4,600 FD)

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions ($2,700 DK, $4,400 FD)

Discount Darling: Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

Avoid: Houston Texans ($3,100 DK, $4,600 FD)