SB Nation will be bringing you the top Daily Fantasy options each week through the regular season and into the playoffs. We have a small sample size of which offenses look good to target and others we should avoid until further notice. As for who should be in your lineups, here are the top value plays of the week, with an eye toward low ownership and high upside.
Top daily fantasy football plays for Week 13 of the NFL season
With Week 13 of the NFL season upon us, we take a look at some of the best values to be found on Draftkings and FanDuel, and some players worth fading.
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
Quarterback
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD)
For the first time since Week 3, there are no byes and no extra Thursday games, meaning the Millionaire Maker slate is a full 13 games. That will serve to smooth out ownership percentages at all positions, but especially quarterback, where even the most popular plays aren’t projected to dominate ownership. Rivers has arguably the juiciest matchup on the slate against the feeble Browns defense in a revenge game for the Chargers after last year’s Week 16 loss in Cleveland. Rivers is also $800 cheaper than Tom Brady, making him an excellent “discount” option.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals ($6,700 DK, $7,900 FD)
Goff put up 19.7 DK points against the Cardinals in Week 7, a 33-0 stomping in London. Playing in Glendale this time, the odds of a Rams’ boat race seem remote, which likely means Goff will top the 235 yards in that first meeting. It also means Goff’s ownership will be unusually low, as players shy away from Patrick Peterson. But Goff is on fire right now, with three 300-yard performances and nine touchdowns in his past four games. His low ownership makes him an ideal tournament pivot off Brady and Rivers.
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants ($6,100 DK, $7,600 FD)
The absence of Michael Crabree and Amari Cooper is likely to hold Carr’s ownership way down, as well. But Seth Roberts, Jared Cook and whomever else the Raiders put out there is in great position to smash against a Giants defense missing Janoris Jenkins and a fighting spirit. If Carr can drop 16 DK points on a real defense (Denver) last week, imagine what he can do against a defense that’s packed it in for the winter, especially with the Raiders back in the AFC West mix.
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts ($5,400 DK, $7,400 FD)
Bortles has topped 20 DK points three times this season. The most recent was last week at Arizona (hello, Jared Goff!). Before that, Week 7 against the Colts. The only real change since then is that Bortles now has one of the league’s next great receivers, Dede Westbrook, soaking up targets. Leonard Fournette has had two games in the past three with less than 20 carries, while Bortles is consistently throwing more than 30 passes a game. That a good recipe for another 20+ game.
Discount Darling: Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers ($4,500 DK, $6,500 FD)
Trubisky has topped 15 DK points in his past two home games and has 53 yards rushing in two of his past four games overall. Facing the 49ers at home puts Trubisky in position to continue both trends, as the 49ers allow the most rushing attempts by quarterbacks in the league.
Avoid: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens ($5,800 DK, $7,700 FD)
The Ravens have been brutal for opposing quarterbacks all season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks in the league. Stafford is also dealing with an ankle injury, making him an even less-attractive option.
Also consider: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans; Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills.
Running back
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots ($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD)
McCoy is the fifth-highest priced running back on DraftKings, but he has the kind of matchup with the Patriots that could make him the highest-scoring back on the slate. Even though they are playing much better than earlier in the season, the Pats still allow the second-most receiving yards to running backs. McCoy had 22 carries and five targets last week in Kansas City, more in each category than his previous two weeks combined. Expect more of the same in a game where the Bills will need to keep pace with the Tom Brady Show.
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD)
Jimmy Garoppolo gets his much-heralded first start as a 49er, but Hyde is still the engine that runs the offense. Hyde has at least eight targets in 4 of his past 5 games and with Garoppolo still learning the system six weeks after being traded, it’s a good chance he leans heavily on Hyde as both a runner and check-down receiver.
Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers ($4,800 DK, $5,700 FD)
The Chargers allow the most receptions to running backs in the league and the third-most passing yards. Johnson has been making his living as a pass-catcher, averaging five catches on six targets over his past five games. Those stats, plus a game script which expects the Browns to be playing from behind all day, add up to a big game at low ownership.
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD)
After not topping 18 carries since his first game of the season, Lynch took the ball 26 times last Sunday against the Broncos. Lynch also had a season-high three targets, of which he caught all three for 43 yards. If he gets that kind of volume against a Giants team that has little incentive to bother tackling him, he could easily go for 150 combined yards and a score.
Discount Darling: Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD)
The Lions are giving up fantasy points on the ground in droves the past few weeks – the Browns and Bears each topped 200 rushing yards in Weeks 10 and 11. That’s great news for Collins, who has at least 16 carries in 3 of 4 games. If his volume stays high, Collins should easily make value at $4,500.
Avoid: Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD)
Coleman is still priced like he’s the main back with Devonta Freeman sidelined. But Freeman is back this week and isn’t expected to have any restrictions. Coleman is still a vital piece of the Falcons’ puzzle, but not for 7K.
Also consider: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams; Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars; Dion Lewis, New England Patriots.
Wide receiver
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers ($6,900 DK, $7,600 FD)
Thomas is priced as the eight-highest wide receiver on DraftKings, and 6 of 7 receivers ahead of him are all expected to carry a higher ownership. That makes Thomas a terrific pivot in tournaments, as Thomas draws a favorable matchup at home against a Panthers defense he lit up for 21 DK points in September. Thomas has been a better receiver on the road, for whatever reason, so perhaps he is due for a big home performance.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals ($6,400 DK, $6,300 FD)
Kupp saw a major spike in DK salary this week – he was at a previous season-high 5K last week – on the heels of a massive 8-116 line against the Saints. But even at such an elevated salary, Kupp is a terrific play this week against one of the worst defenses in the league against slot receivers. The emergence of Josh Reynolds should allow Kupp to stay in the slot, where he should feast again.
Zay Jones, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots ($4,600 DK, $4,500 FD)
Not only do the Patriots struggle against pass-catching running backs, they’re also the second-worst defense in the league against wide receivers. Jones has really come on since Kelvin Benjamin’s injury, garnering 10 targets last week and 24 over the past three. He needs to be more efficient (three catches last week), but the opportunities are going to be there to pay off his low salary.
Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts ($4,100 DK, $4,700 FD)
Westbrook has 16 targets in his first two games as a pro, and with Allen Hurns sidelined again, there’s no reason to think his target share is decreasing anytime soon. Westbrook has the raw talent to be star receiver in the league – he led all receivers in yards in the preseason – and the dreadful Colts defense provides him with his best chance to fulfill his promise of a 200-yard game.
Discount Darling: Seth Roberts, Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants ($3,700 DK, $4,900 FD)
Obviously, the pricing came out before Michael Crabtree’s suspension was confirmed and Amari Cooper was ruled out with an injury. Roberts now becomes the de facto No. 1 receiver in an offense that came to life against the Broncos last week and draws the moribund Giants defense – without Janoris Jenkins – at home on Sunday. The only issue with Roberts is how high is ownership goes. In that regard, Cordarrelle Patterson ($3,400) makes a decent pivot as another receiving option.
Avoid: Sterling Shepard, Giants at Raiders ($7,000 DK, $6,700 FD)
Shepard hasn’t played for three weeks and now he has Geno Smith throwing to him. The Raiders are certainly not a shutdown defense, but is 7K worth the price of such uncertainty?
Also consider: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers; Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings.
Tight end
Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants ($5,400 DK, $5,500 FD)
Vernon Davis’ Thanksgiving Night donut notwithstanding, the Giants are the league’s worst defense against the tight end position, and that included the games when they were trying. With their two starting wide receivers not playing, Cook takes on a huge role in the passing game, which makes the timing of the Giants almost too good to be true. It isn’t.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,700 DK, $5,400 FD)
If the Giants are the worst defense vs. tight ends, the Browns are riding shotgun. The Chargers remembered on Thanksgiving Day that Henry is a pretty good receiver when you throw him the ball, converting all five targets for 76 yards and a score. Expect more of the same on Sunday.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons ($4,500 DK, $6,000 FD)
Henry was great on Thanksgiving, but Rudolph was the No. 1 star, catching all four of his targets for 64 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Falcons aren’t on the Giants/Browns level of tight end awfulness, but they give up a fair amount of production, which makes Rudolph a good tournament pivot.
Julius Thomas, Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos ($3,500 DK, $5,200 FD)
REVENGE GAME! All narratives aside, the Broncos are right there with the Giants and Browns as the worst tight-end defenses in the league, and Thomas has picked up his pace of production lately, with 23 targets and a pair of touchdowns in his past four games. And maybe showing his old team he still has it does factor in here.
Discount Darling: Ricky Seals-Jones, Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams ($3,200 DK, $5,600 FD)
Maybe flukes extend to two games in the modern NFL, but until he doesn’t rack up big yards and score a touchdown in a game, he has to be taken seriously as a low-priced point producer. Clearly, Blaine Gabbert thinks the guy is legit. Who are we to argue?
Avoid Evan Engram, Giants at Raiders ($5,700 DK, $6,900 FD)
Engram has hit the wall, catching just 4 of 13 targets over the past two games. Hard to see how Geno Smith under center fixes this. Harder to see how rostering him under such adversity makes any sense.
Also consider: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots; Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans; Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills.
Defense
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts ($4,500 DK, $5,600 FD)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions ($3,100 DK, $4,600 FD)
Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants ($3,100 DK, $4,600 FD)
Discount Darling: New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($2,500 DK, $4,400 FD)
Avoid: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills ($3,300 DK, $4,600 FD)
